Nearly 157,000 doses of Pfizer and Moderna’s Covid-19 vaccines have been administered in Western New York since mid-December. But at the current rate, the region will not fully immunize its 1.1 million adults until almost May of next year, according to a Buffalo News analysis of state vaccination data.
That analysis, which reflects average daily vaccinations through the week ending Sunday, underscores the immense logistical challenges still ahead for the state. Gov. Andrew M. Cuomo said it would take almost a year to vaccinate all New Yorkers during a press conference on Monday.
That said, the pace of vaccinations is already accelerating locally, and it is expected to speed up further with larger allocations and new vaccine varieties. Public health experts have said that developments such as Johnson & Johnson's single-dose vaccine could quickly change the timeline for full vaccination.
People are also reading…
These insights are part of a Buffalo News project to track and analyze critical Covid-19 metrics. The News is using data from the state and local county departments of health, as well as the state Department of Education and the New York Times’ national coronavirus database, to provide context and visuals to the still-unfolding story of Covid-19 in Erie, Niagara, Chautauqua, Cattaraugus and Allegany counties.
Those data show improvement in both local Covid-19 caseloads and vaccination rates – though perhaps more slowly, on both scores, than many officials and public health experts would like.
Vaccine-eligible people have been able to make appointments to get inoculated, but limited vaccine supply means many will be waiting for some time.
Over the week ending Sunday, regional vaccine providers administered 4,530 shots per day, on average. That is 862 more doses per day than a week ago.
But providers will need to administer roughly 4,850 shots per day to fully immunize 80% of the regional population by the end of December, and the number of New Yorkers who have received both shots in the two-dose regimen is small. As of Sunday, New York State had fully vaccinated 519,100 people, or about 3.4% of the state’s adult population, according to the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention. This data includes vaccines administered in New York through a federal nursing home program; figures reported by New York State do not include it.
The pace of vaccination is expected to increase as more supply becomes available from the federal government, a constraint that – along with several well-publicized regulatory hurdles and communications failures – has greatly slowed New York’s vaccine rollout. On Monday, Cuomo said that the federal government had increased shipments by roughly 10%. A federal program will also begin shipping doses directly to retail pharmacies around the country Thursday.
Since New York began releasing vaccine data in late January, regional providers have consistently administered between 80% and 85% of their total allocations. Statewide, New York has used just under 70% of its vaccine shipments, according to the CDC, ranking it toward the middle of the pack nationally.
Anyone who wants a standard Covid-19 test can get one from the county or the state. It's easy, free and results come relatively fast.
Meanwhile, new Covid-19 cases and hospitalizations have continued to fall in Western New York since the beginning of the year, last week reaching levels not seen since before the holiday season. Average daily cases in the region have fallen almost 45% in the past month. Hospitalizations have fallen 30% over that same period. On Feb. 4, the average percent positive rate – or the share of Covid-19 tests that comes back positive over a seven-day period – fell below a widely used 5% safety threshold for the first time since November.
But hundreds of Western New Yorkers are still suffering the consequences of the pandemic. More than 100 people have died of Covid-19 in each of the past three weeks.
Since Western New York recorded its first case of Covid-19 on March 14, more than 86,500 people have tested positive for Covid-19 in Western New York and 2,046 people have died of the disease.
