2023 Bills preview: Improved Bills embark on tougher road to Super Bowl

The Bills, the New York Jets and the Miami Dolphins all have Super Bowl aspirations. New England is everyone’s choice for last place but should be in the running to have the No. 1-ranked defense in the league.

And surviving the division likely will be followed by an even tougher challenge on the road to Super Bowl LVIII in Las Vegas. Eight of the top 12 teams in the NFL – according to Las Vegas oddsmakers – reside in the AFC. That includes Super Bowl champion Kansas City and AFC runner-up Cincinnati, the teams that have eliminated the Bills the past two years. The others are the Bills, Jets, Dolphins, Ravens, Chargers and Jaguars.

The Bills were 13-3 last season and boasted the No. 2 offense and the No. 4 defense in the league, according to Football Outsiders’ analytics. Yet it’s clear the Bills have to be a little better in 2023 – regardless of whether their overall record improves – to overcome their rugged competition.

Here are four keys to the Bills being better than last year:

The Bills effectively have seven new starters since the end of last season: guards Connor McGovern and O’Cyrus Torrence, tight end Dalton Kincaid, running back James Cook, defensive end Leonard Floyd, whoever plays middle linebacker and safety Micah Hyde. All look like upgrades, except for the MLB. Newcomers Damien Harris, Deonte Harty, Trent Sherfield and Poona Ford all will play key roles.

Expectations at One Bills Drive are high.

“I feel like nobody can beat us but us,” Floyd said. “We can go out and win a lot of games just by playing the way we should play. If we just be us, we’ll win a lot.”

“When you get an offense like this one, there really are no set positions,” said tight end Quintin Morris. “Anybody can be anywhere. And that’s the beauty of it. ... So I think that we have all the weapons and all the pieces we need to be successful.”

Here’s a preview of the team by position:

Quarterback

Allen was great in 2022 and there’s plenty of reasons to think he will be even better, since the elbow injury hindered him a good six weeks last year. He led the No. 1 third-down offense. He was second in total TDs produced (42). He was second in the NFL last year in average depth of target behind only Miami’s Tua Tagovailoa. Hopefully, that comes down a little, with a better possession passing game. He should not have to be the team’s go-to short-yardage runner. There’s no way he’s going to throw an NFL-high five red-zone interceptions again. He needs to improve vs. the blitz. His overall numbers vs. the blitz were good, but he was 24th in efficiency vs. rushes of five men or more. The Bills might increase their play-action pass rate to help Allen. They were 19th (37%) on passes with run fakes in 2021 and 20th (35%) last year. Bumping it up a little will help create bigger windows behind the linebackers and maybe boost run after catch.

“Josh is Superman,” Morris said. “But we all know that we all have to elevate. He elevates everybody’s level of play around him and the more that we can take off his plate, the better this offense will be.”

Offensive line

General Manager Brandon Beane did a lot to bolster the middle of the passing pocket for his QB. McGovern, 25, surely will be a pass protection upgrade over Rodger Saffold, who was looking all of 34 by the end of last season. Torrence, the 330-pound rookie, adds welcome beef at right guard. Mitch Morse remains an upper-tier center. Ryan Bates and David Edwards offer starting-caliber depth inside. Dion Dawkins will be solid, at least. A lot is riding on right tackle Spencer Brown improving. Germain Ifredi should be at least a slight upgrade on David Quessenberry at swing tackle, when needed.

Wide receiver

Stefon Diggs can become just the third player in NFL history to reach 100-plus receptions in four straight seasons. If defenses overplay Diggs, can the Bills’ other WRs win? Gabe Davis led the NFL last year in average depth of his targets – 15.9 yards downfield – according to NFL Next Gen Stats. He runs posts and corners well. It’s critical that Sherfield and Harty do enough to improve the possession-passing game. Sherfield is a good blocker for the run, too.

Tight end

The Bills were last in the NFL in use of 12 personnel (one back, two tight ends, two wide receivers), at 4%. The NFL average was 18%. Look for the Bills to get up to the 20% range with the addition of Kincaid. Not a lot of rookie tight ends make a big splash, but few step into the NFL’s No. 2 offense. We could see Dawson Knox and Kincaid catching 40 passes apiece. That would be great for the offense. One key to using 12 personnel more: the ability to get good yards per carry running the ball with it, because every defense will play with smaller (nickel) personnel against Kincaid.

Running back

Cook offers more juice than departed Devin Singletary. He averaged 5.7 yards a carry last year, Singletary 4.6. The Bills need their investment in Cook (a second-round pick in 2022) to pay off. Harris saw the second-fewest light boxes in the NFL when he rushed for 929 yards for the Patriots in 2021. The Bills had the fourth-most runs into light boxes last year (50%). It has to help Harris and big Latavius Murray, right? The Bills ranked seventh in the NFL in rushing yards, thanks to the fact Allen was third among QBs with 762 yards. The Bills had the fewest rushing attempts by running backs in the NFL (18.1 a game). The running backs produced 88 yards a game, which was 22nd most in the league.

Defensive line

The front four will be a huge factor in determining whether the Bills’ can get to the AFC title game or Super Bowl. Can Oliver go from being a good defensive tackle to one of the more consistent interior disruptors in the NFL? Can Miller come back from injury at age 34 and be a big factor in December and January? Rousseau had an excellent second season. Can he take another step forward and become a high-level No. 2 DE? Can Floyd equal what he did for the Rams the last three years? He had 29 sacks (10.5, 9.5 and 9.0) and ranked in the top 30 in the NFL in pressures each year. Can Jordan Phillips stay healthy and show the flashes he displayed in the opener at Los Angeles last season and throughout the 2019 season in Buffalo? If even three of those things happen, the Bills should be in great shape. Meanwhile, DaQuan Jones’ run-plugging is critical to defending high-powered offenses with light boxes. And Ford gives the Bills a better reliever for Jones.

Linebacker

You can’t pay everyone when you have one of the top-paid quarterbacks in the NFL. The Bills had to let Tremaine Edmunds walk in free agency. His replacement is a worry. It will be no surprise if Tyrel Dodson, Terrell Bernard and even Christian Kirksey (opening on the practice squad) get shots at the job. Still, the MLB situation is no excuse. The Bills have an All-Pro in Matt Milano at the weak-side position. In fact, the Bills have No. 1 draft picks or big-money players at nine of the 11 starting positions on defense (aside from MLB and No. 2 CB). It’s on coach Sean McDermott to make it work.

Defensive backs

It’s a strength of the team. The return of Hyde to team with Jordan Poyer gives the Bills the ability to disguise coverages as well as any defense. The Bills have stars at cornerback in Tre White and slotman Taron Johnson. It’s an unmitigated disappointment that Kaiir Elam could not win the No. 2 CB job. Nevertheless, Dane Jackson and Christian Benford are capable players. It will be interesting to see how McDermott uses Taylor Rapp and whether the Bills will incorporate some dime coverages into their arsenal.

Special teams

Kicker Tyler Bass enters his fourth season and long-snapper Reid Ferguson his seventh for the Bills. Both are among the best in the league at their positions. Bass was 12 of 14 on field-goal tries of 40-plus yards last year. He excels at getting good hang time on kickoffs, which helped the Bills rank among the top 10 on opponent average drive start after kickoffs three years in a row. The Bills’ touchback rate (47%) was fourth lowest in the NFL by design. Bass could kick far more touchbacks, but the Bills view their coverage as a weapon to pin the opponent inside the 25. The experience of punter Sam Martin, 33, helps a lot in kicking in the Orchard Park weather. The Bills had the fewest punts in the NFL last season. The return game is uncertain. Harty was a good return man for the Saints and figures to get a lot of the work. The coverage units have excelled under McDermott, part of the reason the Bills were fifth overall in the special-teams ranking last year. Siran Neal is an ace gunner on punt coverage. Six of the top seven core special teamers are back (minus Taiwan Jones).

Coaching

Offensive coordinator Ken Dorsey, like all play-callers in the NFL, is a lightning rod for fan scrutiny. He had a good first season. What? Second in the NFL on offense by virtually every measure isn’t good enough for you? The Bills had obvious chinks in the offense by the end of last season. They weren’t the second-most talented offense by January. They have taken steps to try to address each of them. Let’s see how Dorsey utilizes the new weapons. On defense, McDermott takes over the play-calling for a unit that by the end of last season seemed a little ... stale. The Bills blitzed 17.3% by Buffalo News charting last year (24th via Football Outsiders). Look for a slight uptick but perhaps more simulated pressures to keep QBs off balance.

Outlook The bar is high. The measure of success for this team this year is nothing less than a Super Bowl appearance. It should be a fun ride. Look for 12 wins, another playoff berth and then anxiety, excitement and ... who knows?