The idling Uber driver would have to wait. A longtime NFL executive was standing on the curb outside a posh Arizona hotel in late March, just after leaving his final session of the league’s annual meeting and just before climbing into the car’s back seat for a trip to the airport.
He wanted to know about the Buffalo Bills’ offseason. Defensive coordinator Leslie Frazier’s departure (mysterious). Receiver Stefon Diggs’ mindset (brooding). When the new stadium was going to open (2026). The Buffalo News, though, turned the tables.
Is the Bills’ Super Bowl window still open for this core of players after four consecutive playoff appearances has netted only one trip to the conference title game?
“As long as they have the quarterback,” the executive said.
As long as they have the quarterback. It was the common response from those inside and outside the Bills over the last six months. Josh Allen will keep the Bills in the Super Bowl conversation.
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“With him, the sky’s the limit,” defensive tackle DaQuan Jones said.
“It’s open because of the quarterback,” a second executive said.
“No. 17,” an AFC assistant simply said.
But for how long? As the seventh season of the regime of General Manager Brandon Beane and coach Sean McDermott and Allen’s fifth season begins Monday night against the New York Jets, questions about the Bills’ championship window – with this group, not for the balance of Allen’s career – are legitimate. Legitimate because the Bills have stubbed their toes in the playoffs the last two years. Legitimate because …
The roster is getting older: Nine players on their 53-man roster last week are at least 30 years old.
The March 2024 free-agent list: Nineteen players are in the final year of their contracts.
The salary cap: According to the industry website Over The Cap, the Bills are nearly $25 million above next year’s projected cap of $256 million.
And, most of all, the AFC is loaded: Quarterbacks Patrick Mahomes (Kansas City), Joe Burrow (Cincinnati), Justin Herbert (Los Angeles Chargers), Lamar Jackson (Baltimore), Trevor Lawrence (Jacksonville), Tua Tagovailoa (Miami) and Deshaun Watson (Cleveland) are in their prime or on the cusp of it. Add Aaron Rodgers (Jets) to the short-term mix.
Internally, though, there is a quiet confidence with these Bills.
“We still have the same guys we’ve had the past few years, including Josh and (receiver Stefon) Diggs,” nickel corner Taron Johnson said. “I definitely feel the window is still open.”
‘Class of division’
The window is open: The Bills remain the AFC East’s best team.
The Bills have won three consecutive division titles, an accomplishment exceeded only twice (1963-66 and 1988-91) in team history. The mid-1960s teams led by quarterback Jack Kemp won two AFL championships. The late-1980s/early-1990s teams reached four consecutive Super Bowls (all losses).
This foundation of Bills, theoretically, has gone backward the last two postseasons, raising concerns – perceived and factual – about their window for contending before having to reset the roster. In 2020, they reached the AFC title game and lost at Kansas City. Good stuff. A breakthrough. On the right track. The Diggs trade worked out and then some. Allen became a star.
In 2021, they lost a second-round road game to the Chiefs; “13 seconds” will hold a dreary place in franchise annals.
And last year, they lost a second-round home game to Cincinnati. Uh-oh. It was right there in the Bills’ hands – beat the Bengals and play the Chiefs in a neutral site. No Arrowhead. No weather. A fast track. A missed opportunity at potential glory.
During the offseason, their AFC East rivals all retooled their rosters (Rodgers) and/or coaching staffs (offensive coordinator Bill O’Brien to New England and defensive coordinator Vic Fangio to Miami). All in the name of stopping Allen and catching the Bills.
One league executive doesn’t think it will matter, though – he picked 1. Bills; 2. Jets; 3. Dolphins and 4. Patriots.
The AFC assistant coach broke down the division recently for The News.
“The Dolphins showed an ability last year to adjust their offense to the quarterback (Tagovailoa) and were then really hurt by injuries. They got their offensive line playing well by the end and they’ve got good skill players (receivers Tyreek Hill and Jaylen Waddle) who have the ability to break a big play at any point of the game. Defensively, (new cornerback) Jalen Ramsey getting hurt (knee) was a big deal for a coordinator (Fangio) who relies so much on match-man coverage.
“The Jets – you have to respect them, but they have to show they can actually win.
“New England doesn’t scare me. Bill O’Brien will make sure they don’t have the same kind of ineptitude they did last year. But the offensive line and protection may still be a big issue.”
And the Bills?
“It’s a big year for (offensive coordinator Ken) Dorsey because (Brian) Daboll was a huge loss – he developed Josh Allen from a question mark into a stud. It’s also a big year for McDermott. If he hits with the staff turnover and taking over the defense (as play-caller), their window could be wide open. We’ll see really fast if he didn’t.”
Drafting and developing
The window is closing: The Bills’ drafts from 2019-22 are so far underwhelming.
For teams with a quarterback on their second contract, they must hit on their picks late in the first round and find affordable gems in rounds 2-7 to replace the eventual free-agent defections (you can’t pay everybody).
Over the aforementioned four drafts, the Bills selected 31 players and seven are projected Week 1 starters (not including kicker Tyler Bass), led by defensive tackle Ed Oliver, tight end Dawson Knox and receiver Gabe Davis. 15 of the draft picks were on the initial 53-man roster.
In all, the Bills have a projected 14 Week 1 starters whom they drafted. Among the Super Bowl contenders, Kansas City leads with 16, followed by San Francisco, Philadelphia and the Bills (14), the Los Angeles Chargers (13) and Cincinnati and Jacksonville (12 apiece). The common theme? All have drafted their starting quarterbacks.
The Bills need Greg Rousseau (first round, 2021) to emerge as a double-digit sack producer, Spencer Brown (third round, ’21) to improve at right tackle, James Cook (second round, ’22) emerge as the top running back, Terrel Bernard (third round, ’22) to take over at middle linebacker when he returns from a hamstring injury and, most important of all, Kaiir Elam (first round, ’22) to forget about his preseason.
“They need to show they’re drafting and developing players to replace the big-money guys,” the AFC assistant coach said.
The Bills’ salary cap situation requires the draft picks to work out. They hit with Knox (third round, 2019), Bass (sixth round, ’20), Davis (fourth round, ’20) and cornerbacks Dane Jackson (seventh round, ’20) and Christian Benford (sixth round, ’22).
The Bills gave up on 2021 second-round defensive end Boogie Basham last week, flipping him to the New York Giants. Bass, Knox and Oliver have signed second contracts. Davis and Jackson are free agents in March.
If Davis has a breakout season, he will command big money elsewhere and it will be up to Khalil Shakir (fifth round, ’22) and Justin Shorter (fifth round, ’23) to take his place.
Learning from past
The window is open: The Bills are determined to make up for past setbacks.
A towering picture of the Lombardi Trophy hangs on the wall of one end zone at the Bills’ indoor practice facility, a decision by McDermott to send an unsaid message of this year’s goal. Every day the players walk from the practice field to the locker room, they see it. Every time they stretch on the indoor artificial surface, they see it. It is impossible to miss.
The players like it.
“Visualization is definitely a good thing,” Allen told The News. “That’s definitely what we want to bring to Western New York. Every day, that’s our goal and our standard – bring that trophy back.”
Said Rousseau: “It motivates us. We know that’s what we want. That’s why we come in here every day to meet, to lift weights, to practice – it’s all for that. Now we have to get the real one.”
The past can be used as a tool. Learning from the playoff scar tissue is entirely possible. Just look at other NFL teams and clubs in other sports. Heartbreak is followed by euphoria. Failure is followed by a parade.
- From 2002-05, the Indianapolis Colts lost a playoff game 41-0, lost an AFC title game by 10 points, failed to score a touchdown in another loss to New England and were upset at home by Pittsburgh as an 8 1/2-point favorite. But in ’06, the Colts won a second-round road game at Baltimore, rallied to beat the Patriots and outclassed Chicago to win the Super Bowl.
“In years past, when our team has come up short, it’s been disappointing,” quarterback Peyton Manning said in The Indianapolis Star. “But somehow, someway, we have found a way to learn from some of those losses. We’re a better team because of it.”
- Nobody experienced more punches than the Washington Nationals. The Nationals lost the deciding Game 5 of the National League Division Series in 2012 (blew 6-0 lead to St. Louis), ’16 (squandered 2-1 series lead to Los Angeles) and ’17 (blew 4-1 lead to the Cubs). But in ’19, they captured winner-take-all games in the NLDS (at the Dodgers) and World Series (at Houston).
“Sometimes, you’ve got to wait for good things,” third baseman Ryan Zimmerman told MASN Sports.
- The Colorado Avalanche endured lean years, which allowed it to build through the draft. Over four consecutive playoff appearances, they lost in six games as the eighth seed to Nashville, lost a Game 7 to San Jose, lost an overtime Game 7 to Dallas and lost in six games to Vegas after leading 2-0. But the Avalanche raised the Stanley Cup in June 2022, completing a 16-4 blitz through the postseason by dethroning two-time defending champion Tampa Bay.
“Sometimes, you need to go through tough times to eventually have this,” general manager Joe Sakic told The Denver Post.
* The Dallas Mavericks started a streak of 12 consecutive playoff appearances in 2000-01 and reached the NBA Finals (losing to Miami) in 2005-06. But then a lot of wins, but postseason disappointing. Three first-round exits in a span of four years. The Mavericks captured their first NBA title, rallying from a 2-1 deficit to beat Miami in six games. Dallas went 16-4 in the postseason, eliminating Kobe Bryant (Lakers) in the second round, Kevin Durant/Russell Westbrook (Oklahoma City) in the Western Conference finals and LeBron James/Dwayne Wade in the final round.
“I can always look back to the ’10-11 season and say, ‘We’re the world champions,’” forward Dirk Nowitzki said in the Fort Worth Star-Telegram. “Nobody can ever take that away from me so that’s really the best thing about this.”
Translation: It can be done. It has been done. It will be done.
Those teams had star power – Colts quarterback Peyton Manning, Nationals pitcher Stephen Strasburg and Avalanche defenseman Cale Makar. The Bills have Allen and Diggs, defensive end Von Miller and the safety duo of Micah Hyde and Jordan Poyer. The Bills want to be saying the same things as Manning, Zimmerman and Sakic – it took a long time, but it was worth it.
The final verdict about the Bills’ Super Bowl window: It is open in general and open because of Allen in particular.
“No question,” Knox said. “We know we have all of the right tools, all of the right coaches, all of the right players. We know we have something special here. People love making predictions and talking, but there comes a time when you put the football down and see what you’re all about.”
It starts Monday night.
