NFL draft preview: Bills can mostly ignore quarterbacks, but would love for them to go early

The Buffalo Bills will be rooting hard for quarterbacks to go early and often in the first round of the NFL draft.

With Josh Allen signed to a long-term contract extension – one that’s looking better by the day as other quarterbacks around the league sign their deals – the Bills don’t have to worry about extensively scouting the most important position on the field.

Instead, they’ll hope that as many quarterbacks as possible are chosen between the first overall pick and when their turn comes up at No. 25, because that will drop players at other positions down to the Bills.

Just how many quarterbacks will go in the first round remains anyone’s guess.

“I think it's different than some of the years we've had recently where from a quarterback standpoint I don't know we have the star power,” NFL Network draft analyst Daniel Jeremiah said. “I don't know that we'll have a top 10 pick there.”

Jeremiah made those comments before the start of the NFL scouting combine last month. Since that time, quarterbacks have steadily risen up the board in many mock drafts.

That’s to be expected. If your team doesn’t have a quarterback in the NFL, it’s nowhere. Inevitably, that can lead to overdrafting – a classic example of which came when the Bills drafted E.J. Manuel in the first round in 2013. Manuel was the only quarterback taken that year in the first round. Given the Bills’ need at the position, it’s understandable why they chose him, but it proved to be a mistake.

With Allen, the Bills can sit back and watch as other teams talk themselves into quarterbacks in the first round – even if it may prove to be a mistake.

The best: Malik Willis, QB, Liberty.

The best quarterbacks in the NFL today – Allen, Kansas City’s Patrick Mahomes, the Chargers’ Justin Herbert, Green Bay’s Aaron Rodgers – all have superior arm talent and can make plays with their legs. Willis has the most enticing set of physical tools in this year’s class.

“In terms of the upside, I don't know how you'd see anybody other than Malik Willis just in terms of what he can do once he gets it all figured out,” Jeremiah said. “He's got a huge arm. Not real tall obviously, just a little over 6-feet tall, but he is built. He is a powerfully built guy who can drive the ball. You saw it at the Senior Bowl when it was raining and everybody else was struggling. He didn't have any issues whatsoever. This guy can really power the football. He can make off-platform throws. He can create. You can use the design-quarterback run game with him and he's outstanding with that. He's just so strong and physical.”

Overall position ranking: 3 of 10.

This isn’t a great year to need a quarterback. ESPN’s Mel Kiper Jr. ranks Willis No. 16 on his list of the top 25 available prospects. Fellow ESPN analyst Todd McShay ranks Willis 21st, just ahead of Pitt’s Kenny Pickett at No. 22.

“We all know this isn’t the best QB class, but consider this: Four 2021 signal-callers had better grades than our best 2022 guys,” McShay wrote in a recent article on ESPN.

Added Steve Muench of Scouts, Inc.: “If Willis and Pickett were in the 2021 class, I would have felt comfortable ranking them Nos. 6 and 7, slightly behind Mac Jones. It’s just that type of year. The real questions isn’t about rankings or grades, though. It’s how early they will get drafted. Does a team fall in love with one and reach? That could make for draft-night intrigue.”

Names to know: Pickett, Ole Miss’ Matt Corral, Cincinnati’s Desmond Ridder, North Carolina’s Sam Howell, Nevada’s Carson Strong.

If Willis isn’t the first quarterback off the board, it’s a good bet that honor goes to Pickett. Despite plenty of hullabaloo about his hand size, which measured 8 ½ inches at the scouting combine, then grew to 8 5/8 inches at Pitt’s pro day, Pickett is considered by almost every draft analyst as the most NFL-ready quarterback in the class.

“Ready to play right now, I would say Pickett,” Jeremiah said. “He, to me, is somebody when you watch all these guys and you kind of watch them all one after another, he's just different with how quickly he operates, just getting through progressions, getting the ball where it needs to be. He doesn't have ‘wow’ arm strength. He doesn't blow you away with that, but he's got really good vision. He throws with anticipation and timing. I think he'd be ready to come in and play right away.”

The Lions (No. 2 overall), Texans (No. 3), Panthers (No. 6), Falcons (No. 8) and Seahawks (No. 9) are all teams picking in the top 10 that may be interested in adding a quarterback in the first round.

Last year, quarterbacks went 1, 2, 3 at the top of the draft. Over the last six years, at least three quarterbacks have been chosen in the first round, topped by the five chosen in both 2018 and 2021. Last year, all five of those quarterbacks went in the top 15 picks. A good over/under on the number chosen in the first round this year would be 3.5.

Bills view: Nothing to see here. The Bills won’t consider a quarterback until late in the draft, if they do at all. The team traded for Case Keenum to serve as Allen’s backup, and brought back Matt Barkley to compete for the No. 3 quarterback job, either on the active roster or, more likely, the practice squad. It’s possible the Bills could use a late-round pick on a developmental quarterback to compete with Barkley, but it’s hardly a need.

Bills need ranking: 1 of 10.

Sleeper: Cole Kelley, Southeastern Louisiana.

A 6-foot-7, 249-pounder, Kelley is a former four-star recruit who signed with Arkansas out of high school, then transferred back to his home state and put up huge numbers, winning Southland Conference Player of the Year after the 2021 season, along with being named a first-team FCS Associated Press All-American.

TOP 10 QUARTERBACKS

1. Malik Willis*, Liberty – Height: 6-2. Weight: 219.

2. Kenny Pickett, Pitt – Height: 6-2. Weight: 217.

3. Matt Corral*, Ole Miss – Height: 6-3. Weight: 212.

4. Sam Howell*, North Carolina – Height: 6-1. Weight: 218.

5. Carson Strong*, Nevada – Height: 6-3. Weight: 226.

6. Desmond Ritter, Cincinnati – Height: 6-3. Weight: 211.

7. Bailey Zappe, Western Kentucky – Height: 6-1. Weight: 215.

8. Skylar Thompson, Kansas State – Height: 6-2. Weight: 217.

9. Kaleb Elerby, Western Michigan – Height: 6-1. Weight: 208.

10. Cole Kelley, Southeastern Louisiana – Height: 6-7. Weight: 249.

* – Underclassman