The start of silly season is here.
The “legal tampering” period in the NFL opens at noon Monday and continues until the official start of the new league year, which comes at 4 p.m. Wednesday. Over that 52-hour stretch, agents of impending unrestricted free agents can begin negotiating contracts with new teams.
Inevitably, that will lead to several agreements being announced even before players can officially change teams. Often, those agreements will be reported in such a way that the contract’s maximum value is made public, because agents like to put that number out there as a way of showing how much money they secured for their player.
Of course, with contracts not being guaranteed in the NFL, it’s rare that players actually end up making every dollar on those deals. Keep that in mind if and when you hear about the Buffalo Bills coming to a contract agreement with a player. Often, the details of the contract that emerge days later tell a different story.
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With that, let’s jump into a free-agent edition of the Bills Mailbag …
Gary Gates asks: Rob Gronkowski to Buffalo! Forget it! I heard it a couple of times now that Christian McCaffrey is interested in coming to Buffalo. I mean, Buffalo and Carolina have been dealing with coaches and players for years now. Plus, last week there was talk of Mitch Morse and the offensive line in your mailbag. I say go after Trevor Penning from Northern Iowa. This guy is 6-foot-7, 320 pounds and squats 500 pounds. He can play tackle or right guard. This guy fits the Sean McDermott mold totally. Imagine him and Spencer Brown pulling on a jet sweep!
Jay: Why forget it about Gronk? He’s a great fit. Running two tight end formations with Gronk and Dawson Knox sounds like a heck of wrinkle for new offensive coordinator Ken Dorsey. I’m not in favor of a move for McCaffrey, at all. He can’t stay healthy, and any team acquiring him would be on the hook for a $12 million cap hit in each of the next three years. That’s way too rich for a running back. As for Penning, I haven’t seen many scouting reports that suggest he could move inside to guard. It’s possible he could, but if his best position is tackle, the Bills are probably set there. Also, I don’t think Penning will be available at No. 25, and I don’t think the Bills should trade up in the first round for him.
Ken Gawel asks: I love this time of year trying to speculate what the Bills will do in the draft and free agency. I don’t think the Bills are desperate at any position, but they definitely have a few at which they would like to add depth or improve. Some of the moves will depend upon what happens in free agency. I like the thought of Buffalo adding Rob Gronkowski to the roster if the price is right and drafting a cornerback if they lose Levi Wallace to free agency. I hear a lot of talk about drafting a wide receiver with the first pick, but the guy that intrigues me the most is Jordan Davis, the defensive tackle from Georgia. I know there are some questions about his work ethic and weight control, but I think we have the locker room to help him learn to be a pro. What are your thoughts?
Jay: Todd McShay, who covers the draft for ESPN, called Davis’ combine workout one of the most impressive he has ever seen. Davis ran the 40-yard dash in 4.78 seconds, and jumped 10 feet, 3 inches in the broad jump at 341 pounds. McShay has Davis projected as the No. 17 pick, going to the Los Angeles Chargers. It’s not crazy to think he could fall to the Bills at No. 25. He would certainly provide an imposing presence in the middle of the Bills’ defensive line, commanding a double team on every snap. McShay also mentioned that it will be a challenge for Davis to keep his weight down, but the Bills have a lot of trust in their conditioning staff, as well as their sports science department, so I don’t think that would prevent them from drafting him. Even if Davis is available at No. 25, however, I’m not sure that’s the right direction to go for the Bills. If he’s primarily an early-downs defender, that doesn’t address two issues that may be of more importance for the defense – that being the pass rush and No. 2 cornerback. There is also a case to be made to continue to build the offense by either giving quarterback Josh Allen more protection, or another weapon.
Jeff Rochwarger asks: First A.J. Klein, and now Jon Feliciano cut for salary cap reasons. Both reserves and both unvaccinated. Do you think their vaccine status came into play? On that basis, is Star Lotulelei going to be a "cap casualty?" Anyone else?
Jay: Just to set the record straight, Feliciano has tweeted that he is vaccinated. I don’t believe vaccination status played into the decisions to release either Klein or Feliciano. That came down to money, plain and simple. They were overpriced for backups. I would be surprised if vaccination status played into any roster decisions this offseason. The NFL suspended all of its Covid-19 protocols earlier this month, which means things are scheduled to be “back to normal” when teams return for spring workouts starting next month. It’s just a coincidence that Klein has been released and Cole Beasley is seeking a trade.
John Jarzynski asks: Can you shed some light on how these renegotiated contracts work? When the Bills "rework" Stefon Diggs’ contract for example, does he still get the total amount? I see Dallas reworked Dak Prescott's contract and now they are under the cap?
Jay: Sure. We’ll use a made-up contract for our example. John, let’s say you sign a three-year contract with the Bills tomorrow for $12 million, including a $3 million signing bonus. Your base salaries over that time are $2 million in each of the first two years and $3 million in the final season. You also have a $2 million roster bonus that kicks at the start of the 2023 league year. You collect the signing bonus immediately, but for cap purposes, it’s split over the life of the deal, so $1 million in each season. Your salary cap hit in the first year would be $3 million, then $5 million in the second year – which is the total of your base salary, the roster bonus and the signing bonus. In the final year of the deal, the cap hit would be $4 million, which is the total of your base salary and prorated portion of the signing bonus.
If the Bills wanted to reduce your cap hit in the second year of the contract, they could convert the $2 million roster bonus into a signing bonus. You get that money immediately, but once again, for cap purposes, it’s spread over the remainder of the contract. That would mean $1 million would be charged in 2023 and 2024. So, in this example, your cap hit would drop to $4 million in 2023 and increase to $5 million in 2024. Obviously, in this example, there isn’t a great deal of cap savings, but I wanted to keep the numbers small for ease of understanding.
Now, when it comes to Diggs, he has two years remaining on his current contract, with cap hits of $17.917 million and $18.006 million, according to contracts website Spotrac.com. Diggs’ 2022 cap number contains a $12.525 million base salary, a roster bonus of a bit less than $1 million, a $50,000 workout bonus and a previous restructure of $4.356 million. That last charge comes from doing last year what we went over in our example above. Given that Diggs’ roster bonus this year is so small, there’s hardly any cap benefit from turning it into a signing bonus – less than $500,000. That means any new cap number for Diggs will come from a contract extension as opposed to a contract restructure. For a more complete look at what that might entail, my “GM for a Day” column has a complete mock contract for Diggs, created with help from Spotrac.com.
Ed Helinski asks: Prior to the NFL’s legal tampering period, how much player influence and free agent recruiting goes on? In your estimation, how effective has it been in the past and how might it be this season for the Bills?
Jay: A ton. The NFL is a fraternity, and given how much movement there is throughout the league, players get to know each other, or at least know someone who knows their potential new teammate. Those recruiting conversations regularly take place. It extends beyond just players, too. At the recently-concluded NFL scouting combine, agents, coaches and front-office members all gather in Indianapolis for plenty of late nights. It’s pretty much impossible for the NFL to prove, but it’s naive to think those recruiting conversations aren’t taking place. As for how impactful it might be for the Bills, the biggest factor in that is quarterback Josh Allen. What player in the NFL wouldn’t want to be Allen’s teammate? The success that the Bills, and Allen, have had in recent years will no doubt help in recruiting free agents.
Mike from Asheville, N.C. asks: What do you think the chance of the Bills opening the season at the Los Angeles Rams on national television is? Seems like it would be a great way to open the season and would make for incredible TV ratings, but would the league do that in the first game of the year to have an AFC-NFC battle? Also, in 2023, do we know who the Bills’ extra home game will be against vs. the NFC?
Jay: I’d say the Bills were favorites for that game – until last week. The trade of Russell Wilson from the Seahawks to the Broncos may very well make Denver the new favorite. I’d argue the Bills would still be the right choice, and the game would do huge ratings (truthfully, it will not matter who the opponent is), but a franchise quarterback changing teams is compelling.
As for the 2023 home game for the Bills, it will be against the NFC South team that finishes in the same spot that the Bills finish in during the 2022 season. For example, if the Bills and Buccaneers win their respective divisions in the upcoming year, Buffalo would host Tampa Bay in 2023.
Brenda Alesii asked: When I worked at Empire Sports Network, I found John Butler to be generally forthcoming. Would you assess Brandon Beane the same way? I thought his 90-minute meeting with the media after the Kansas City loss was a far cry from “GM Speak.”
Jay: Absolutely. Beane is generally very forthcoming. There are a couple things he chooses not to address in much detail, with the top item on that list being contract negotiations. I can understand that, though. When it comes to philosophy on things like managing the salary cap, he is great at providing in-depth answers that explain things well without tipping his hand on what he’s actually going to do. That’s a skill. This sounds overly simplistic, but Beane sounds like a human being when he talks. He’s not full of cliches and he’s not afraid to simply answer a question, which is rare in a league that treats even the most mundane topics like state secrets. I’m not sure if this has been written before, but Beane told the Bills’ public relations staff not to end his end-of-season press conference. He was going to stay at the podium until every media member in attendance asked every question they wanted to. That’s not something I’ve ever heard a coach or GM do before, and I know I can speak for every reported in attendance when saying it was very much appreciated.
Thanks, as always, for the questions. A reminder that they can be submitted via email to jskurski@buffnews.com or via Twitter, @JaySkurski.
