Waiting for a winner in Buffalo's mayoral race may end up being even more tedious than watching a World Series game to its bitter, early-morning end.
In fact, while World Series games only seem to go on for weeks, the mayoral contest quite possibly will do just that.
Both campaigns said they are doing everything conceivable – from door-knocking to phone-banking to texting – to turn out every single one of their loyal voters while hoping to win some decisive last-minute converts.
And it’s all because that's how long it will take to count the write-in ballots cast for Mayor Byron W. Brown in his contest against Democratic nominee India B. Walton.
Still, clues about the race’s outcome will start dropping as soon as voters go to the polls Tuesday.
So, here's a look at what to watch for as Buffalo's hotly contested race for mayor comes to a close, based on conversations with political pros who have been closely following the race.
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Tuesday’s turnout
Election Day is supposed to dawn crisp and partly cloudy: not bad Buffalo weather for this time of year, and not the sort of thing that will deter voters from lining up outside polling places if they must.
Long lines, of course, could be a sign of high turnout – which could be a good sign for Brown, whose nonexistent primary campaign meant that many of his supposed supporters never bothered to vote.
Lines at polling places in areas thought to be Brown strongholds, such as South Buffalo and perhaps the Masten District, would be particularly good signs for the mayor.
So far, though, early-voting turnout has been light except in South Buffalo.
With just three days left in one of the most intense mayoral races in Buffalo history, India Walton and Byron Brown took to the streets Saturday to shake hands, hand out candy and persuade any undecided voters to come to their side.
And if that light-turnout trend continues on Election Day, that could bode well for Walton, a democratic socialist with a loyal core of passionate supporters, particularly west of Main Street.
More ideological candidates tend to do better in low-turnout races – such as the primary in which Walton beat Brown. So if plenty of voters stay home on Tuesday, Walton’s intensely loyal base could carry her to victory.
Election night
Of course, we won't know what's really happening in the mayor's race until after the polls close at 9 p.m. Tuesday.
Soon after that, the Erie County Board of Elections will report the early-voting results, which will be the first sign of which way the race is trending.
Since defeating incumbent Mayor Byron W. Brown in the June Democratic primary, Walton has gone from "India Who?" to universally recognized on the streets of Buffalo.
Final results, of a strange sort, are expected to be available later Tuesday night.
There will be three vote totals to watch.
First, there will be Walton's total.
Then there will be the total of votes from people who filled in the oval for a write-in candidate and wrote down or stamped a write-in candidate's name.
And lastly, there will be the total of "blank, void and scattered" votes – that is, write-in votes from voters who didn't fill in the oval they're supposed to fill in.
Brown, a veteran of the city's formidable Democratic politics finds himself in uncharted territory. If he wants to win a fifth term as mayor, he must do it in a write-in effort rarely attempted on such a large scale.
How to make sense of the totals, then?
Well, if the total for Walton exceeds the sum of correct write-ins and the blank, void and scattered votes, she will clearly be ahead.
But if the total number of write-in votes exceeds the number of Walton votes, it’s much more complicated.
The aftermath
Political pros generally say if the total of write-ins is at least 10% higher than the Walton vote, Brown will likely emerge the winner – but only after the ballots are hand-counted.
That process won't even start until Nov. 16, after all the absentee and military ballots arrive.
And even if the total of write-in votes for Brown exceeds Walton's total, it is possible she still could win if enough of those write-in votes were cast improperly.
After all, there are several ways that voters can screw up their write-in vote.
If they clearly write in Brown's name in the right place but forget to fill in the oval, that vote will likely be counted, because the Board of Elections is primarily interested in voter intent.
But the board would not count a vote for Brown if voters mess up in other ways.
They could, for example, fill in the write-in oval for mayor and then write down Brown's name to the left of it rather than in the far-right column for mayor. Voters who do that will have accidentally voted for Brown for city court judge.
Or they could write or stamp Brown's name on top of Walton's on the ballot. That's the kind of Brown vote that, if counted, the Walton campaign would almost certainly challenge – first at the Board of Elections, and then possibly in court.
So when would a close race for mayor actually be decided?
Sometime in the later half of November at the earliest, and perhaps weeks later if it’s close enough to prompt a court challenge of some sort.
In other words, the World Series could be a fading memory by the time Buffalo knows who its next mayor is.
