7 Day Forecast
An abrupt shutdown of Atlantic Ocean currents that could put large parts of Europe in a deep freeze is looking a bit more likely and closer than before as a new complex computer simulation finds a "cliff-like" tipping point looming in the future.
A long-worried nightmare scenario, triggered by Greenland's ice sheet melting from global warming, still is at least decades away if not longer, but maybe not the centuries that it once seemed, a new study in Friday's Science Advances finds. The study, the first to use complex simulations and include multiple factors, uses a key measurement to track the strength of vital overall ocean circulation, which studies show is slowing.
A collapse of the current — called the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation or AMOC — would change weather worldwide because it means a shutdown of one of the key climate and ocean forces of the planet. It would plunge northwestern European temperatures by 9 to 27 degrees Fahrenheit over the decades, extend Arctic ice much farther south, turn up the heat even more in the Southern Hemisphere, change global rainfall patterns and disrupt the Amazon, the study said.
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FILE - People swim in the Atlantic Ocean in Biarritz, southwestern France, Oct. 27, 2021. An abrupt shutdown of Atlantic Ocean currents that could put large parts of Europe in a deep freeze is looking a bit more likely and closer than before, according to a new story. (AP Photo/Bob Edme, File)
Other scientists said it would be a catastrophe that could cause worldwide food and water shortages.
"We are moving closer (to the collapse), but we're not sure how much closer," said study lead author Rene van Westen, a climate scientist and oceanographer at Utrecht University in the Netherlands. "We are heading towards a tipping point."
When this global weather calamity — grossly fictionalized in the movie "The Day After Tomorrow" — may happen is "the million-dollar question, which we unfortunately can't answer at the moment," van Westen said. He said it's likely a century away but still could happen in his lifetime. He just turned 30.
"It also depends on the rate of climate change we are inducing as humanity," van Westen said.
The United Nations' Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, a group of hundreds of scientists that gives regular authoritative updates on warming, said it has medium confidence that there will not be a collapse before 2100 and generally downplayed disaster scenarios. But van Westen, several outside scientists and a study last year say that may not be right.
Stefan Rahmstorf, head of Earth Systems Analysis at the Potsdam Institute for Climate Research in Germany, was not part of the research but called it "a major advance in AMOC stability science."
"The new study adds significantly to the rising concern about an AMOC collapse in the not too distant future," Rahmstorf said in an email. "We will ignore this at our peril."
University of Exeter climate scientist Tim Lenton, also not part of the research, said the new study makes him more concerned about a collapse.
An AMOC collapse would cause so many ripples throughout the world's climate that are "so abrupt and severe that they would be near impossible to adapt to in some locations," Lenton said.
There are signs showing the AMOC collapsed in the past, but when and how it will change in the future is still uncertain, said U.S. National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration oceanographer Wei Cheng, who wasn't part of the research.
The AMOC is part of an intricate global conveyor belt of ocean currents that move different levels of salt and warm water around the globe at different depths in patterns that helps regulate Earth's temperature, absorbs carbon dioxide and fuels the water cycle, according to NASA.
When the AMOC shuts down, there's less heat exchanged across the globe and "it really impacts Europe quite severely," van Westen said.
The engine of this conveyor belt is off the coast of Greenland, where, as more ice melts from climate change, more freshwater flows into the North Atlantic and slows everything down, van Westen said. In the current system, cold deeper fresher water heads south past both Americas and then east past Africa. Meanwhile saltier warmer ocean water, coming from the Pacific and Indian oceans, pushes past the southern tip of Africa, veers to and around Florida and continues up the U.S. East Coast then on to Greenland.
The Dutch team simulated 2,200 years of its flow, adding in what human-caused climate change does to it. They found "an abrupt AMOC collapse" after 1,750 years but so far are unable to translate that simulated timeline to Earth's real future. Key to monitoring what happens is a complicated measurement of flow around the tip of Africa. The more negative that measurement, the slower AMOC runs.
"This value is getting more negative under climate change," van Westen said. When it reaches a certain point, it's not a gradual stop but something that is "cliff-like," he said.
The world should pay attention to potential AMOC collapse, said Joel Hirschi, division leader at the United Kingdom's National Oceanography Centre. But there's a bigger global priority, he said.
"To me, the rapidly increasing temperatures we have been witnessing in recent years and associated temperature extremes are of more immediate concern than the AMOC shutting down," Hirschi said. "The warming is not hypothetical but is already happening and impacting society now."
Climate change fuels disproportionate impact of wildfires on vulnerable
Weslee Chinen looks at the updated death certificate for his wife Sharlene Rabang, who was named as the 100th victim of the Lahaina wildfires, with Rabang's daughter Lorine Lopes, right, Dec. 5, 2023, at his family home in Waipahu, Hawaii. The report made Rabang the 100th victim of the deadliest U.S. wildfire in more than a century. The Aug. 8 fire devastated the onetime capital of the former kingdom of Hawaii. It wiped out an estimated 3,000 homes and apartments in Lahaina as it raced through dry, invasive grasses, driven by winds from a hurricane passing far to the south.
Wilted palm trees line a destroyed property, Friday, Dec. 8, 2023, in Lahaina, Hawaii. A wildfire that tore through the heart of the Hawaiian island of Maui this summer showed how older residents are at particular risk from disasters. Sixty of the 100 people killed in the Maui fire this summer were 65 or older. Many relatives are now facing grief and anger or feeling robbed of final years with their elders. The number of people exposed to natural hazards has increased as climate change has intensified disasters like wildfires and hurricanes. Studies suggest that wildfire disproportionately affects vulnerable people such as those who are older, have a diminished capacity to respond to danger, or are low-income.
Briena Mae Rabang, 10, holds the ashes of her great-grandmother Sharlene Rabang, who was named as the 100th victim of the Lahaina wildfire, while posing for a photo with her father Branden, left, and grandfather Brandon, right, Friday, Dec. 8, 2023, in Kahului, Hawaii. Sharlene's family fought to have her listed as a victim due to smoke inhalation after she died weeks after fleeing the fire. "Me and my mom was really close, we talked multiple times a day," Brandon said.
Briena Mae Rabang, 10, in red, who lost her home in the August wildfires in Lahaina and whose great-grandmother Sharlene Rabang was named as the 100th victim, sits with other children during a toy giveaway at the Church of the Nazarene, Friday, Dec. 8, 2023, in Kahului, Hawaii. Honolulu's medical examiner said a contributing cause of her death was the thick, black smoke that Rabang breathed as she fled. In September, a team of wildfire researchers in the U.S. West found that in the past decade, the number of highly vulnerable people living within the perimeter of wildfires in Washington, Oregon and California more than tripled from the decade before, to more than 43,000. When a wildfire destroyed the town of Paradise, California, in 2018, 68 of the 85 victims were 65 or older, and more than a dozen had physical or mental impairments that impeded their ability to evacuate.
Leis and flowers adorn crosses at a memorial for victims of the August wildfire above the Lahaina Bypass highway, Dec. 6, 2023, in Lahaina, Hawaii. The wildfire that tore through the heart of the Hawaii island of Maui this summer showed how older residents are at particular risk from disasters. Recordings of 911 calls from the Maui wildfire underscored how susceptible older residents were. One woman called about an 88-year-old man left behind in a house: “He would literally have to be carried out,” she told the dispatcher. A man reported that his elderly parents called him after their home caught fire: “They just called to say, ‘I love you, we’re not going to make it.'”
In this photo provided by Lorine Lopes, Weslee Chinen, left, and Sharlene Rabang are shown at their wedding ceremony, Aug. 7, 2021, in Lahaina, Hawaii. Honolulu's medical examiner said a contributing cause of her death was the thick, black smoke that Rabang breathed as she fled. The report made Rabang the 100th victim of the deadliest U.S. wildfire in more than a century.
Lahaina wildfire victim Sharlene Rabang's cat Poke, who she rescued as she fled the Lahaina wildfires in August, sits on a couch at the family home of her husband Weslee Chinen, Tuesday, Dec. 5, 2023, Waipahu, Hawaii. Honolulu's medical examiner said a contributing cause of her death was the thick, black smoke that Rabang breathed as she fled. The report made Rabang the 100th victim of the deadliest U.S. wildfire in more than a century.
The Rev. Ai Hironaka, resident minister of the Lahaina Hongwanji Mission, walks through the grounds of his temple and residence destroyed by wildfire, Thursday, Dec. 7, 2023, in Lahaina, Hawaii. A wildfire that tore through the heart of the Hawaiian island of Maui this summer showed how older residents are at particular risk from disasters. Sixty of the 100 people killed in the Maui fire this summer were 65 or older. Many relatives are now facing grief and anger or feeling robbed of final years with their elders.
Photos of Sharlene Rabang, who was named as the 100th victim of the Lahaina wildfires after dying weeks after fleeing her home, Tuesday, Dec. 5, 2023, are seen at her husband Weslee Chinen's family home in Waipahu, Hawaii. Honolulu's medical examiner said a contributing cause of her death was the thick, black smoke that Rabang breathed as she fled. The report made Rabang the 100th victim of the deadliest U.S. wildfire in more than a century.
Weslee Chinen, whose wife Sharlene Rabang was named as the 100th victim of the Lahaina wildfires after dying weeks after fleeing their home, pets Sharlene's adopted cat Poke, who was rescued from the fires, Tuesday, Dec. 5, 2023, at his family home in Waipahu, Hawaii. Rabang, who had a previous history of cancer, COVID and high blood pressure, was not originally listed as a victim until her family fought to have her included, citing smoke inhalation as a contributing factor. Chinen was in Oahu at the time of the fires, and Rabang's son Brandon had to convince her to flee.
Lahaina wildfire victim Sharlene Rabang's cat Poke, who she rescued as she fled the Lahaina wildfires in August, sits on a couch at the family home of Rabang's husband Weslee Chinen, Tuesday, Dec. 5, 2023, in Waipahu, Hawaii. Honolulu's medical examiner said a contributing cause of her death was the thick, black smoke that Rabang breathed as she fled. The report made Rabang the 100th victim of the deadliest U.S. wildfire in more than a century.
Weslee Chinen, whose wife Sharlene Rabang died weeks after fleeing their Lahaina home during the August wildfire, holds up a stack of melted bowls he recovered from their destroyed home, Tuesday, Dec. 5, 2023, at his family's home in Waipahu, Hawaii. Rabang, who had a previous history of cancer, COVID and high blood pressure, was not originally listed as a victim until her family fought to have her included, citing smoke inhalation as a contributing factor. Chinen was in Oahu at the time of the fires, and Rabang's son Brandon had to convince her to flee.
A copy of Sharlene Rabang's death certificate updated to include smoke inhalation due to the Lahaina wildfire is pictured, Tuesday, Dec. 5, 2023, at her husband Wesley Chinen's family home in Waipahu, Hawaii. Rabang, who had a previous history of cancer, COVID and high blood pressure, was not originally listed as a victim until her family fought to have her included, citing smoke inhalation as a contributing factor. Chinen was in Oahu at the time of the fires, and Rabang's son Brandon had to convince her to flee. The report made Rabang the 100th victim of the deadliest U.S. wildfire in more than a century. The Aug. 8 fire devastated the onetime capital of the former kingdom of Hawaii. It wiped out an estimated 3,000 homes and apartments in Lahaina as it raced through dry, invasive grasses, driven by winds from a hurricane passing far to the south.
Photos of Sharlene Rabang, who was named as the 100th victim of the Lahaina wildfires after dying weeks after fleeing her home, Tuesday, Dec. 5, 2023, are seen at her husband Weslee Chinen's family home in Waipahu, Hawaii. Rabang, who had a previous history of cancer, COVID and high blood pressure, was not originally listed as a victim until her family fought to have her included, citing smoke inhalation as a contributing factor. Chinen was in Oahu at the time of the fires, and Rabang's son Brandon had to convince her to flee.
A photo of Louise Abihai is tied to a fence at a memorial for victims of the August wildfire above the Lahaina Bypass highway, Wednesday, Dec. 6, 2023, in Lahaina, Hawaii. The wildfire that tore through the heart of the Hawaii island of Maui this summer showed how older residents are at particular risk from disasters. Sixty of the 100 people killed in the Maui fire this summer were 65 or older.
Leis and flowers adorn crosses at a memorial for victims of the August wildfire above the Lahaina Bypass highway, Wednesday, Dec. 6, 2023, in Lahaina, Hawaii. The wildfire that tore through the heart of the Hawaii island of Maui this summer showed how older residents are at particular risk from disasters. Sixty of the 100 people killed in the Maui fire this summer were 65 or older.
Photos of victims are seen placed under white crosses at a memorial for victims of the August wildfire above the Lahaina Bypass highway, Wednesday, Dec. 6, 2023, in Lahaina, Hawaii. The wildfire that tore through the heart of the Hawaii island of Maui this summer showed how older residents are at particular risk from disasters. Sixty of the 100 people killed in the Maui fire this summer were 65 or older.
Cars pass by a memorial for victims of the August wildfire, Wednesday, Dec. 6, 2023, above the Lahaina Bypass highway in Lahaina, Hawaii. The wildfire that tore through the heart of the Hawaii island of Maui this summer showed how older residents are at particular risk from disasters. Sixty of the 100 people killed in the Maui fire this summer were 65 or older.
Zaevah Erickson-Castaneto, 7, does a cartwheel while being followed by sister Mahina, 2, as they return to their room at the Honua Kai Resort & Spa, where the family currently lives after being displaced by the August wildfire Friday, Dec. 8, 2023, in the Kaanapali area of Lahaina, Hawaii. The children's great-grandmother Louise Abihai was among the victims in the deadliest U.S. wildfire in more than a century that took the lives of at least 100 people and destroyed most of the historic town of Lahaina.
Erika Erickson, whose grandmother Louise Abihai died in the August wildfire, moves an air mattress in her family's room at the Honua Kai Resort & Spa, where they currently live after being displaced, Friday, Dec. 8, 2023, in the Kaanapali area of Lahaina, Hawaii. While the family has been told they can stay until early next year, "the tricky part is, you still don't know if you might get a call (to move)." The deadliest U.S. wildfire in more than a century took the lives of at least 100 people and destroyed most of the historic town of Lahaina on the Hawaiian island of Maui.
Kailani Amine, whose great-grandmother Louise Abihai, 97, died in the Lahaina wildfire in August, works at a makeshift desk of her boxed-up belongings Tuesday, Dec. 19, 2023, at her home in Seattle. Amine, who moved to Seattle in 2020 to work on her masters degree, is moving back to Hawaii to be closer to her family after the tragedy.
FILE - Rev. Ai Hironaka, resident minister of the Lahaina Hongwanji Mission, offers a prayer inside the nokotsudo, or columbarium, that survived being destroyed by wildfire, Thursday, Dec. 7, 2023, in Lahaina, A wildfire that tore through the heart of the Hawaiian island of Maui this summer showed how older residents are at particular risk from disasters. Sixty of the 100 people killed in the Maui fire this summer were 65 or older. Many relatives are now facing grief and anger or feeling robbed of final years with their elders.
The tide circulates around rocks as it rises at Wahikuli Wayside Park on Nov. 3, 2023, in Lahaina, Hawaii. A wildfire that tore through the heart of the Hawaiian island of Maui this summer showed how older residents are at particular risk from disasters. Sixty of the 100 people killed in the Maui fire this summer were 65 or older. Many relatives are now facing grief and anger or feeling robbed of final years with their elders.
