President Donald Trump all but declared April 17 as V-I Day, for Victory over Iran. But hold off on the parade. “IRAN HAS JUST ANNOUNCED THAT THE STRAIT OF IRAN IS FULLY OPEN,” he wrote on Truth Social. That’s also what the April 8 U.S. cease-fire was supposed to allow.
Re-opening the Strait is good news, if it happens this time, and financial markets behaved as if they think it will. Equities rose and the price of oil dropped sharply on the news, which gives the U.S. policy breathing room.
Then again, calling Hormuz the “Strait of Iran” reflects Tehran’s view. Iran’s Foreign Minister said Friday the Strait is open “in line with the (10-day) ceasefire in Lebanon” and only “on the coordinated route” through Iranian waters. That would leave Iran in control. The test is whether tankers begin moving in numbers through the normal route without fear of Iranian attack.
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The good news is that Trump said the U.S. blockade of Iranian ports will persist until a deal is reached. This is critical to the success of negotiations, and it no doubt had something to do with Iran’s concession on the Strait. The blockade is serious U.S. leverage — as was Israel’s war on Hezbollah before Trump insisted Israel stop it. ...
“Israel will not be bombing Lebanon any longer. They are PROHIBITED from doing so by the U.S.A. Enough is enough,” Trump wrote. To ward off the implication he had traded Israeli freedom of action in Lebanon to Iran, Trump soon had to reiterate: “Again! This deal is not tied, in any way, to Lebanon.”
Trump was disturbed by photos he saw of Israel’s bombing in Beirut. Most victims were Hezbollah fighters, but there were some civilian casualties. That’s what happens when Hezbollah hides its fighters and leaders among civilians.
Point three in the Lebanon-Israel cease-fire document is clear that Israel “shall preserve its right to take all necessary measures in self-defense, at any time, against planned, imminent, or ongoing attacks. This shall not be impeded by the cessation of hostilities.”
Prohibiting Israel’s defensive war on terrorists is what U.S. negotiators demanded before Trump. “I hope Hezbollah acts nicely,” the president also wrote. But hope has never been a successful strategy with Hezbollah. Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu had wanted to finish clearing Iran’s proxy from southern Lebanon, but Mr. Trump forced his hand at Iran’s request.
Will Lebanon now defang Hezbollah? History suggests not, so Israel will need the freedom and U.S. support to defend itself proactively. The alternative is to allow a return to the days when Hezbollah functioned as an Iranian sword of Damocles over Israel.
Trump also announced April 17 a stream of what he said were other Iranian concessions. He said “the U.S.A. will get all Nuclear ‘Dust,’” by which he means Iran’s enriched uranium.
“No money will exchange hands,” Trump added, but this isn’t a denial that a release of $20 billion in frozen Iranians funds has been discussed in negotiations. That sum is roughly equal to Iran’s oil revenue frozen in Qatar, plus what Iran is owed by Iraq for electricity.
Trump also said Iran has agreed to remove all mines from the Strait and never to close it again, as well as stop backing proxies like Hamas and Hezbollah. These would be a U.S. victory, if you can trust the regime.
Media for the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps are already criticizing Iran’s foreign minister and threatening to keep the Strait closed. Some officials said Iran will still charge tolls to transit the Strait.
There’s also a lively debate inside the administration about what to do as the cease-fire with Iran expires next Wednesday. Some would extend it by as long as 60 days, but that idea seems to have been dropped. The better idea is no extension, or a very short one, so the regime can’t drag out talks as it always prefers. A long cease-fire helps Iran, which Adm. Brad Cooper says is already digging out missiles and launchers that have been trapped but not destroyed.
The imperative now is to keep the pressure on. The U.S. blockade, which expanded to interdict sanctioned vessels, is critical. The economic cost to Iran is mounting, and, if it is sustained, Tehran will soon have to shut wells that it will be costly to restart. The regime also needs to know the U.S. will strike again if it won’t come to terms.
Trump is right to insist Iran turn over its enriched uranium, and the regime shouldn’t be allowed to keep some in reserve or give it to an unreliable third-party. This applies to Iran’s 20% enriched uranium in addition to the 60% enriched, as the one can become the other.
Trump has the right instincts about Iran, and the Wall Street Journal editorial board will be the first to give him credit if the Iranian concessions turn out to be real. But his frequent assertions that a deal is imminent also tell the regime he is desperate to end the war. This makes the regime less likely to make the concessions Trump needs to claim a legitimate and lasting victory.
