Questions and answers about Tuesday’s primary elections:
• Why has an election for mayor of Buffalo, featuring Byron Brown’s unprecedented campaign for a fifth term, proven so low-key?
Probably because any possible big-time opponent dismissed taking on such an entrenched and powerful incumbent.
This matchup has no Tim Kennedy, no Darius Pridgen, no Sean Ryan and no Pat Burke on the primary ballot. Many observers say they remain on deck for a future mayoral effort – just not this one.
• Is the mayoral race really that low-key?
Don’t tell that to India Walton, Brown’s firebrand challenger. She has raised enough money to finance a significant television and direct mail campaign. In those ads, she throws every possible charge and insinuation at Brown.
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At the same time, she introduces thoughtful policy proposals that may be left-leaning, but not quite left field. Probably the most liberal mayoral candidate in Buffalo history, her effort comes at a time when the New York Times reports that New York City’s progressive mayoral candidates are encountering difficulties.
Walton’s effort should provide a good indication of the power of Buffalo’s progressive vote.
• Brown is considered the heavy favorite. By what tally must he win to enthrone him for a powerful fifth term?
We won’t play the numbers game here. Let’s just say he needs a convincing win to claim the “mandate” mantle he seeks through 2025.
• Is the Brown campaign thinking at all about Lovely Warren, the mayor of Rochester?
If not, they should. In 2013, Warren surprised just about everyone by whipping incumbent Mayor Tom Richards with quiet but efficient mobilization of Black voters.
Brown, however, should encounter no difficulties in motivating his loyal base of African American Democrats. Walton faces a tough challenge in siphoning votes from that bloc.
• How do we know Brown feels optimistic about his chances on Tuesday?
Because his TV ads are officially classified as “warm and fuzzy.” If Brown was concerned, he’d be throwing all kinds of zingers at Walton.
• Will turnout matter?
Yup – just like always. Early voting totals have proven paltry, and most observers predict Tuesday turnout in the teens percentile. The candidate able to best attract his or her base will win.
• Duh. Isn’t that rather obvious?
Yes. But also the first rule of elections. Duh again.
• Turning to the sheriff’s race, why is it so unique this year?
Because primaries for sheriff are almost unheard of. Nobody can recall a Republican primary for sheriff.
In addition, it’s possible Republicans could nominate a woman – Karen Healy-Case – and Democrats could nominate a woman – Kim Beaty. If both win on Tuesday, national attention is almost sure to focus on an all-female race for sheriff of a big urban county.
• What’s at stake for Dems and Repubs in this one?
Chairman Jeremy Zellner’s Democratic organization has much riding on its sheriff endorsement of Brian Gould, assistant chief of the Cheektowaga Police Department. A significant portion of local Dems favor Beaty and the idea of a Black woman as Erie County’s top cop. And because Beaty, former deputy commissioner of the Buffalo Police Department, says she was treated unfairly by party leaders at endorsement time (which Zellner denies), the party unity that the chairman so eagerly seeks has suffered.
Ditto on the GOP side. Healy-Case, a former Buffalo police lieutenant, snared the Republican nod after Chairman Ralph Lorigo and his Conservatives led the way. But big Republican names like Sen. Pat Gallivan and Sheriff Tim Howard back another well-financed and well-organized candidate, former Buffalo Detective John Garcia.
Usually in primaries, endorsed candidates are favored. Party organizations have the resources and discipline to drive their voters to the polls.
A win by Garcia in the GOP or Beaty in the Dems would prove a major blow for party leaders.
