The Buffalo Bills have had good production out of first-down runs the past two weeks.
Can the Bills keep it going against a physical New England defense on Sunday?
On first down against Carolina, Buffalo ran 12 times for 63 yards, a 5.25 average. All of those carries were by Devin Singletary. On first down at Tampa, they ran 10 times for 102 yards, with Josh Allen getting 49 of those yards.
“I think we've always had confidence in Devin,” said Bills offensive coordinator Brian Daboll. “He's just been a consistent player for us. ... I think Motor's improved since he's been here. He's a guy that we drafted. Each year he's gotten a little bit better.”
The New England defense stuffed first-down runs in the first meeting, holding the Bills to 28 yards on 12 carries. The Pats were able to crowd the line of scrimmage, with little concern to defend downfield passes due to the wind.
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The Bills still lead the NFL in passing percentage on first down at 59%, according to Sharp Football. And they lead the NFL in first-down passing in the first three quarters at 62%, which is more relevant because teams run more with the lead in the fourth quarter.
The Bills aren’t going to change their offensive personality. They had success passing on first down vs. the Patriots in the first meeting. Allen hit 9 of 12 first-down passes for 93 yards despite bad weather.
The Bills called 36 passes and 12 runs overall in the first three quarters vs. Carolina.
But an improved run production would take some pressure off Allen & Co. against the Patriots.
Here are position-by-position grades of the Panthers game, on a scale of 0 to 5:
Quarterback (4.0): The numbers weren’t huge, but Allen made two outstanding throws for touchdowns, managed five scoring drives and didn’t let Brian Burns and Haason Reddick ruin the game. The Panthers blitzed on 11 of 43 dropbacks. Allen was only 4 of 10 for 35 yards on those plays with one sack. But they ran a lot of tough four-man pressures, too. On one third-down incompletion for Cole Beasley in the third quarter, it looked like a seven-man rush and turned into a four-man pressure with Burns and Reddick dropping into coverage and a linebacker coming free up the middle.
Running backs (3.5): Singletary got praise from Sean McDermott for getting some tough, extra yards. It was good to see the Bills grind out a fourth-quarter TD drive by running on eight of nine plays. The Bills now have 14 rushing TDs. They had 16 last year and 13 in 2019.
Receivers (3.5): Gabriel Davis started his good day with a downfield block on Singletary’s TD run. Davis also had a good run after the catch on a run-pass option pass from Allen for 28 yards. All six of Davis’ TD catches this year have converted red-zone scoring chances. Allen beat the blitz twice by going to Beasley on the long drive to a field goal to end the first half. That’s seven catches vs. blitzes in the past two weeks and a team-high 20 on the season for Beasley, who is on pace for 92 catches. He had 82 last year. Dawson Knox helped out in pass protection by jamming an edge rusher at the line of scrimmage 13 times. Knox also had a great cut block on the middle backer on Singletary’s TD run. Those jam blocks and Tommy Sweeney’s 22 snaps were a function of Daboll wanting to use more two tight-end sets to widen the path to the QB for the Carolina speed rushers and to help the pass blockers. Sweeney had a drop that killed one drive and had a couple other tough blocking plays vs. the outstanding Reddick.
Offensive line (3.0): It wasn’t a great day for Spencer Brown, but he gets cut major slack because of the shift to left tackle with virtually no practice time. He made five penalties, one of which was a bad call (the throw down of Yetur Gross-Matos). The Bills didn’t ask him or Daryl Williams to do a ton of true pass-sets without help, but he did have a handful of good pass-protections vs. Burns in the second half. He continues to finish blocks, too. The illegal-downfield penalty on Williams early was Allen’s fault on an RPO. Williams blocked Burns on the 20-yard TD to Davis. Cody Ford had a tough start, giving up three hurries early, one of which caused a sack. But he was OK most of the rest of the game. He had a couple nice point-of-attack blocks in the fourth quarter. Mitch Morse pulled and took out a safety on Singletary’s TD.
Defensive line (4.5): The Bills dominated, as they should have considering offensive line is a weak link on the Panthers. Harrison Phillips had another excellent game. He was on the field for the 30-yard end around. But on the other 14 runs with Phillips in the game, the Panthers managed just 32 yards. Star Lotulelei was fine in 22 snaps, getting a clean-up sack after Vernon Butler applied pressure. Maybe he’ll be ready for more snaps in New England. Efe Obada beat John Miller clean inside for his first sack and beat tackle Cam Erving with a speed move wide for his second. Jerry Hughes had two hurries, tipped a fourth-down pass and had a 4-yard tackle for loss. Ed Oliver continues to show hustle, stripping Cam Newton from behind for a forced fumble, but the Panthers recovered. Greg Rousseau had three hurries and set the edge well again vs. the run. Next week against the Pats’ quality offensive line will be a better current barometer for the defensive line.
The Bills weren’t too worried about Newton burning them. Leslie Frazier sent blitzers on a season-high 21 pass plays, or 46% of the Carolina dropbacks. Three of the four sacks came on rushes of five or more men.
Newton completed just 7 of 17 passes for 56 yards against the blitz, with one TD.
Linebackers (4.0): Tremaine Edmunds had four hurries on eight pass-rush chances. He smothered a third-down pass over the middle, a jet-sweep run by Robbie Anderson and Newton’s two-point conversion run. Matt Milano was active too, with a third-down pass breakup on a slant and a third-down stop on Newton. On the late TD pass to Ameer Abdullah, Milano was feinting a rush and was a step late covering the angle route out of the backfield. It was a zero-blitz with no help. Milano now has 14 tackles for loss, sixth most in the NFL.
Defensive backs (4.5): The Panthers were held to 124 net yards passing, 75 under their average. Newton’s struggles continued. He went just 2 for 11 for 24 yards on passes that traveled 10 or more yards past the line of scrimmage. The tackling was good, except for one miss by Levi Wallace on the end around that went for 30 yards. Micah Hyde and Jordan Poyer each blitzed six times and each had a near interception. It was the most pass-rush chances for Hyde, and he had three hurries.
Special teams (4.0): All of Tyler Bass’ kickoffs exceeded 4.0 (excellent) hang time. Tyler Matakevich, Andre Smith and Jake Kumerow smothered a kickoff at the Carolina 18. Good for Isaiah McKenzie to rebound with a return to the 43 off a low kickoff, and Marquez Stevenson had two positive punt returns. Matt Haack only had one punt returned, but it went for 16 yards off a kick of only 3.7 seconds hang time. His punt from the back of his own end zone went for a solid net of 37 even though the hang time was only 3.45.
