Erie County officials and public health experts credit a county-wide mask mandate for reducing the number of local Covid-19 hospitalizations.
Between Dec. 6 and Monday, the number of hospitalized patients fell from 375 to 339, according to the state Health Department – even as hospitalizations climbed across the state. Erie County introduced its mask mandate on Nov. 23, more than two weeks before New York Gov. Kathy Hochul imposed a statewide rule that affected other Western New York counties.
Erie County's Covid-19 numbers fell by more than 1,000 new cases week over week, down from a high of 5,537 cases the week after Thanksgiving.
While the mandate prompted some backlash, including demonstrations at Niagara Square, public health officials said it was needed to curb 10 weeks of rising hospitalizations. In Erie County, the mandate has – at least temporarily – averted the need for further lockdowns, County Executive Mark Poloncarz said in his weekly Covid-19 press conference.
“We are the only region really in upstate New York … (that) is going down in hospitalizations, and we believe it's because of the mask mandate,” Poloncarz said. “It's been a full month. It's had an impact. I mean, I was at a lot of places this past weekend, doing my Christmas shopping and so forth, and a lot of people were wearing masks.”
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Erie County’s falling hospitalizations have proved a bright spot in an otherwise uncertain period. Across the region, the number of hospitalized patients rose from a low of fewer than 20 in the summer to a seasonal high of 537 on Dec. 9 before falling again. The timing of the recent decrease suggests the mask mandate is a significant factor, said Dr. Peter Winkelstein, the executive director of the University at Buffalo’s Institute for Healthcare Informatics, which models local Covid-19 hospitalizations.
Amid worsening Covid-19 case numbers, Erie County Executive Mark Poloncarz on Tuesday defended his mask mandate, suggested a vaccination mandate for restaurants may not be necessary and noted a few positive developments.
But total hospitalizations are still incredibly high, rivaling last winter’s peaks – and capacity is still tight at many local hospitals, thanks to ongoing staffing issues and months of pandemic-related, deferred medical care. According to the state Health Department, fewer than 30 intensive care unit beds are available across Western New York. At Mercy Hospital and Sisters of Charity Hospital, ICUs are already full.
“Hospitals are severely, severely overstressed,” said Marty Boryszak, the senior vice president for acute care at Catholic Health. “And I’m not speaking just for myself – I talk to my counterparts at Kaleida and ECMC, and we're all in the same boat.”
The arrival of the Omicron variant, which University at Buffalo researchers confirmed Wednesday is in Erie County, is also expected to erode the region’s recent progress on both hospitalizations and new infections, which had fallen over the past two weeks. Early studies in the United Kingdom have estimated the variant is between 25% and 50% more contagious than prior strains – and it already accounts for the majority of virus samples sequenced by the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention in New York’s administrative region, which also includes New Jersey, Puerto Rico and the U.S. Virgin Islands.
Community behavior will, however, still shape the future course of the pandemic, Winkelstein said. According to statewide projections by the University of Washington, a major pandemic forecaster, January infections could be cut by tens of thousands of cases if 80% of New Yorkers began masking in public.
“The bad news about Omicron is that it’s coming, and it’s going to produce a lot of cases here – there’s simply no two ways around it,” Winkelstein said. “The good news here is that the same interventions that worked with the previous version of the virus also work with Omicron, as far as we know.”
In addition to masking in public, local and national public health officials continue to urge people to get vaccinated and boosted, to avoid large crowds and to take steps to limit their risk during holiday functions. On December 6, the CDC updated its guidance to encourage even vaccinated, asymptomatic people to consider self-testing before gathering indoors. Most home tests will detect the Omicron variant, according to the Food and Drug Administration, though it’s important that self-testers follow the guidance and instructions included with their test.
“We certainly wish those that are celebrating a merry Christmas, and that you have a very safe and happy and healthy Christmas,” Poloncarz said. “The best way to do that is to know your status – to get tested.”
