After an alarming one-week post-Thanksgiving spike in Covid-19, weekly case totals have dropped back to pre-Thanksgiving levels in Erie County, though the opposite trend is being seen in many other parts of the state.
Erie County hospital capacity levels have remained high over the past week, but the numbers have stayed fairly level, resulting in County Executive Mark Poloncarz announcing Tuesday that he will not order Phase 2 restrictions, which would have required a vaccination mandate for all county restaurants, bars and entertainment venues.
"We are staying in Phase 1," he said. "It's not great, what we're seeing in general, but we have had some positive notes."
The county's Covid-19 numbers fell by more than 1,000 new cases week over week, down from a high of 5,537 cases the week immediately following Thanksgiving.
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“We can all do this, New Yorkers. It is not that hard to do,’’ Hochul said of her masking rule, which applies to all indoor settings except private residences.
The same cannot be said for New York State. At a news briefing in Manhattan on Tuesday, Gov. Kathy Hochul said New York as a whole remains in the grips of a full-blown holiday surge – and that is before gatherings hosted on Christmas and New Year's Eve. Covid-19 cases are up 58% statewide since Thanksgiving, based on average caseloads per 100,000 people.
“These are not trending in the right direction," Hochul said .
On Friday, when she announced a statewide mask mandate, Hochul said Covid-19 hospitalizations had increased 29% since Thanksgiving. On Tuesday, she said that increase now stood at 70%.
Amid worsening Covid-19 case numbers, Erie County Executive Mark Poloncarz on Tuesday defended his mask mandate, suggested a vaccination mandate for restaurants may not be necessary and noted a few positive developments.
Hochul used that data to show why a statewide mask mandate is necessary. Poloncarz used county data to show that a mask mandate is working.
The county executive instituted Erie County's mask mandate three weeks ago.
The more positive news in Erie County was greeted with a sense of relief from Poloncarz. He noted with the relative stability of Covid-19 hospitalizations, and state assistance for staffing at Erie County Medical Center and Terrace View nursing home, it makes sense to keep the county's existing restrictions as they stand right now.
The indoor masking requirement is considered Phase 1 of a four-phase restrictions and shutdown plan if Covid cases and hospitalizations continue to rise.
A team of nurses from Northwell Health, the state's largest health system, arrived at ECMC on Sunday. The National Guard has been providing staffing assistance for Terrace View.
"We're going in the right direction now, as compared to when it was really bad," Poloncarz said.
The county administration was expected to make a decision this week regarding a move to Phase 2 restrictions after reviewing data gathered Monday.
Erie County's positive case rates remain lower than all other counties in Western New York. Poloncarz said he expects the numbers to continue to decline as long as people follow the rules.
The masking rules laid out by the state are more strict than the rules initially laid out by Erie County because they require masks for all indoor areas that are not private residences. Erie County required masks only in indoor spaces accessible to the general public.
The state mandate supersedes the county's order.
Dutchess County Executive Marc Molinaro, a Republican, said a top Hochul official told him and other county executives on a phone call Friday that counties were not even expected to enforce the order during the first two weeks. The state has not said that publicly.
Hochul stressed that the statewide mask mandate is temporary, and a less restrictive approach than what some feared. She again said she has no plans to issue shutdown orders to businesses.
The governor brought in several upstate business owners, via video links, who cheered on her mask mandate and her Covid-19 response efforts. She said her mask policy will help save businesses by focusing on masking instead of the mass shutdown orders first issued last year by former Gov. Andrew Cuomo.
"Simply ask people to wear a mask and you can stay open. That’s what this is about, keeping you open,’" she said, imploring businesses to cooperate with the mask rule.
Similar to Erie County's mask mandate rules, the state allows businesses to opt out of the mask order if they put in place a process to require proof that all patrons entering are fully vaccinated. Many businesses, though, don’t have enough staff for such an effort. Still, the governor said it is her "sincere hope" that many more businesses will only let in vaccinated patrons.
The state has said it is leaving it up to counties to enforce the mask mandate, with some counties refusing to do so. It leaves to a county's discretion the possibility of fining a business up to $1,000 per violation for noncompliance. In Erie County, Poloncarz and Health Commissioner Dr. Gale Burstein said they are trying to enforce the mask mandate through education, mask distribution to businesses and the issuance of warnings, which seems sufficient, in most cases. Unlike smaller counties with limited manpower, Poloncarz said, Erie County is trying to get everyone to follow the rules.
"There's a very vocal minority of folks that is against masking, but the majority of folks understand it," he said.
He also pointed out that Erie County's positive test rate remains lower than all surrounding Western New York counties, which he attributed to the local mask mandate's success. While Erie County hospitals, overall, are 90% full, he said, some hospitals in other Western New York counties are so full that they've had to divert patients to other counties and other states.
"We want people to understand this is a regional issue," he said.
Burstein said that because the number of positive cases in Erie County is still much higher than usual, contact tracers are no longer following up with every individual who tests positive. Instead, they are prioritizing those who are at highest risk, including those who may have gotten Covid-19 in household settings and those who have tested positive in schools and day cares, she said.
Everyone who tests positive should still be getting an initial call from a county staffer regarding their test status, however.
Erie County's average positive test rate stands at 8.6%, which is lower than all other Western New York counties and lower than the region's seven-day average of 9.4%. Overall, Erie County's positive test rate was 1 to 3 percentage points lower than surrounding counties, though Monroe County's positive test rate was even lower at 7.7%. Niagara County's positive test rate stood at 11.3%.
Of patients hospitalized in Erie County as of Sunday, 69% were not fully vaccinated. That percentage jumps to 77% for those in intensive care units.
