Here are three things to watch in the Arizona Wildcats’ game against No. 12 Oregon at Arizona Stadium (Saturday, 6 p.m., Pac-12 Networks), plus a score prediction and some pertinent preview links:
1. GROUND AND POUND?
If this stat didn’t cause Johnny Nansen to lose sleep this week, nothing ever will: Oregon had 351 rushing yards on 37 carries against Stanford last week. Those numbers were almost identical to the ones Cal put up against Arizona the previous week – 354 and 38. The Ducks’ total was a season high and their most rushing yards since 2018. But it wasn’t an aberration. In the three previous games, they averaged 217.7 yards on the ground. This is easily the most important matchup in Saturday’s game. The feeling here is that if the Wildcats can keep that number under 200, they’ll have a real chance. If they’re constantly getting gashed for 12-15 yards – and their offense is watching helplessly from the sideline – they could be in real trouble.
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2. DUCKS’ DEFICIENCY?
If Oregon has a weakness, it’s pass defense. The Ducks rank last in the Pac-12, allowing 282.2 yards per game. Opponents are completing 69.5% of their passes against Oregon, the highest figure in the conference. Considering that Arizona passed for almost 500 yards last week, this would seem to be an area the Wildcats can exploit. We believe they can. But it might not necessarily take the form you would expect. Looking at the reception percentages allowed by Oregon defenders (courtesy or Pro Football Focus), the players who’ve struggled the most in coverage are linebackers and safeties. So this could be a game in which tight end Tanner McLachlan and tailback Michael Wiley (coming out of the backfield) thrive. Jayden de Laura, Jacob Cowing & Co. also have done a lot of damage in the area between the linebackers and safeties. But the line has to hold up for those routes to develop.
3. HISTORY REPEATING?
It’s really strange that Oregon hasn’t won in Tucson since 2011. The Ducks have gone 0-2 at Arizona Stadium since. Both games were sizable upsets, and both were blowouts. Will any of that have any influence on this game? Probably not. But you know what could? The crowd. The game is a sellout. It’s going to be loud. If the fans do their job, Oregon will experience the cacophony that so many visitors endure at Autzen Stadium. The Wildcats need every edge they can muster to pull this off, and the crowd can do its part by making it difficult for Bo Nix and the Ducks offense to communicate. A false start here or a wasted timeout there could make all the difference.
FINAL SCORE: Oregon 41, Arizona 31
PREVIEW LINKS:
Contact sports reporter Michael Lev at 573-4148 or mlev@tucson.com. On Twitter @michaeljlev
Michael Lev
Sports Reporter/Columnist
