I refuse to say this is a "new normal." Almost nothing about the 2020 baseball season is going to look or feel normal. Maybe by 2021, we can get back to what things were like in 2019.
So for the next three months (hopefully), we're going to have oddball baseball. If we want to see the grand ol' game at all this summer and fall, we're going to have to get used to lots of things we never thought possible. It's a stark bottom line.
The season opens Thursday with two blockbusters: Yankees at Nationals (Gerrit Cole vs. Max Scherzer, preceded by a first pitch from Dr. Anthony Fauci), and Giants at Dodgers (Johnny Cueto vs. Clayton Kershaw). Everyone else throws their first pitches Friday.
Here's my starting lineup of nine questions about a season like we've never seen:
1. What is all this going to look like?
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There will be no fans in the stands, other than cardboard cutouts placed in seats that many teams are making for ticket-holders who purchase them and send them a selfie. It's just like all the extras used to fill the War Memorial Stadium stands for the filming of "The Natural" in the summer of 1983.
Cardboard cutouts sit in the seats during summer workouts for the Oakland Athletics at RingCentral Coliseum on July 17, 2020 in Oakland, California.
There will be pumped in crowd noise, using 75 reactions from the "MLB The Show" video game.
Only one set of TV and radio announcers will be on hand, with the home side getting in the ballpark and the visitors staying home to work out of a studio or the booth of their desolate home park.
Players not in the game will be wearing masks. So will coaches. Some catchers probably will. Most teams have built dugout extensions in the stands to spread out their players. No spitting. No high-fives or other contact in celebrations. Stay six feet away from umpires or you get tossed, too.
There is a universal designated hitter, with pitchers in the National League no longer hitting. Yes, we lose that magical Bartolo Colon home run moment, but most pitchers, non-Madison Bumgarner division, simply can't hit at all. An overdue move.
There is a 10-day injured list and a 45-day list, down from 60. There is a separate IL for those with symptoms or exposure to Covid-19. There is no maximium or minimum stay on that list.
This is weird. Broadcasting in an empty and dark @yankeestadium while the game is at @CitiField pic.twitter.com/wVHGmuM60w
— Michael Kay (@RealMichaelKay) July 19, 2020
2. How will the schedule play out?
It's 60 games, and that's only about 37 percent of a normal 162-game season. A six-game winning or losing streak this year is like a 16-gamer during a normal season.
You get swept in a three- or four-game series, not an unusual occurrence, and you're really going see teams feel like they're in a funk. There's no time for a 2-8 start.
"This is no longer the New York Marathon. It’s the New York 1,600 meters,” an AL executive told Hall of Fame writer Jayson Stark of the Athletic. "And that changes everything.”
All travel is within the division and region. So that means interleague games are East-East, Central-Central and West-West. There shouldn't be too many complaints about long trips and those hideous 5 a.m. arrivals in the next town.
We start on July 23 and go through Sept. 27. The World Series could stretch to Oct. 28. There will be no All-Star Game.
3. How good will Gerrit Cole look in pinstripes?
Anybody would look better with the kind of lineup behind him that he'll have. But an ace like Cole, in the first season of his nine-year, $324-million deal, should be an incredible addition for the Yankees.
Still, it's going to be very difficult to watch pitcher stats and draw many conclusions. Remember, it's 60 games and only a handful of guys will make even 12 starts.
That means it will be tough for any pitcher to win 10 games this year – because that would equate to winning 27 in a normal season. And the only time that's been done since the DH was born in 1973 came in 1990, when Bob Welch won 27 for the Athletics.
It will be more about dominance and putting his team in position to win. Cole said last week he can't wait for Opening Night against the Nats.
"Gosh, it's going to be fun," he said. "It's going to have fake crowd noise and it's going to be 2020 'coronavirus baseball' but I'll get to put the road jersey on for the first time – New York across the chest – so I'm stoked about that."
Over the last two years with the Astros, new Yankees ace Gerrit Cole went 35-10 and averaged 301 strikeouts.
4. What's with the extra-inning rule?
Don't expect too many 17- or 18-inning games this season. Heck, you probably won't even see many go into the 11th or 12th. With a short season, teams can't afford to blow through pitchers. In the era of the virus, health officials warn it's better for players to not be gathered at the ballpark for hours on end.
So MLB is following the minor-league rule we've seen the last two years at Sahlen Field. Each extra inning starts with a runner on second base, with that runner being the player who made the last out the previous inning.
It creates instant pressure and strategy for both sides. Bunt right away? Issue an intentional walk immediately to set up a double play? Hack away for that first-pitch single to score the run?
Judging from what we've seen with the Bisons, the rule does its job. In 2018, the Bisons played nine extra-inning games (not counting doubleheader games tied after the seventh). Six of the nine ended in the 10th inning, two in the 11th and one in the 12th.
Last season, they played seven. Five ended in the 10th and two others in the 11th. So that's just one game going past the 11th inning in the last two seasons combined. Pretty effective rule.
5. How will all these new managers work out?
Ten out of 30 teams have new dugout bosses this season and there are going to be some interesting storylines to watch.
At age 71, Dusty Baker got what appears to be one final chance and now has to worry about being a high-risk case for coronavirus while leading the Astros in the wake of their cheating scandal. After becoming an icon in Tampa Bay and Chicago, Joe Maddon is back in Anaheim, where he spent many years as a trusted bench coach. After taking two years off following his decade in the Bronx, Joe Girardi tries his hand with Bryce Harper and the Phillies.
The one that seems oddly interesting: How does first-timer David Ross do in place of Maddon with the Cubs, less than four years after his Game 7 home run contributed to their iconic World Series victory in Cleveland?
6. How lucky do the Astros get with a no-fan season?
Every Houston road game was going to be a complete circus in the wake of the scandal. Under the original schedule, the first road trip included a stop in Anaheim. Think more than a few Dodgers fans might have made that one to express their, um, "opinions"?
"I'm sure this may have caused things to dissipate," Maddon said last week when asked if the virus took the Astros off the hook some. "The primary action probably would have been via fans in crowded ballparks, where it might have been more difficult.
"The pandemic has acted as a buffer right now. I know how adamantly angry some people were about all this stuff, so yeah, it probably has cooled down a bit."
Still, Baker worried in spring training about other teams employing some frontier justice against the Astros. Might be something there. In Tuesday's exhibition in Kansas City, three Astros got plunked with pitches – with Jose Altuve and Alex Bregman getting hit in consecutive at-bats. Hmm.
7. What kind of trade deadline is there?
Not much of one. It will come Aug. 31, when most every team probably still will be within range of a wild-card spot. So do you give up prospects to make a big move for a month and the postseason – all the while assuming the virus doesn't prematurely end the season? Teams might play this one close to the vest rather than mortgage much of their future. A tweak here or there.
The biggest issue is will we see salary dumps or moves of players who can't be re-signed? Keep an eye on Cleveland. Do the Indians dare move Francisco Lindor by the deadline if they're in the race? But how do they not, when it seems they have no chance to keep him? Still, he's signed through 2021. There would be a bigger market this winter, or at next year's deadline.
What will the Mets do with Marcus Stroman, who went on the IL Wednesday? The Cubs with Kris Bryant? The Rockies with Nolan Arenado? Stay tuned.
8. Are there any special events left?
Lots of things got canceled. No All-Star Game in Los Angeles. No Padres-Diamondbacks series in Mexico City, no Mets-Marlins in San Juan, no Cubs-Cardinals in London and no Red Sox-Orioles in Williamsport, Pa. This weekend's Hall of Fame inductions in Cooperstown for Derek Jeter, Larry Walker, Ted Simmons and Marvin Miller were wiped out.
The one thing that remains is the Field of Dreams Classic on a specially built ballpark in Dyersville, Iowa, adjacent to the house, diamond – and corn fields – used in the 1989 movie starring Kevin Costner and James Earl Jones. They built it and the White Sox and Cardinals will come Aug. 13. The game originally pitted the White Sox and Yankees, but the interleague schedule changes caused that revision.
9. Who's going to win?
Predictions in this kind of season are a dicey proposition, given the 60-game sprint and the unknown impacts to lineups and rotations/bullpens of any popup Covid-19 cases. Let alone injuries, where an issue with a hamstring or oblique that might take 2 to 4 weeks to heal can suddenly cost you a third of the season.
For division winners, let's call Yankees-Twins-Astros in the AL and Phillies-Cardinals-Dodgers in the NL. For wild cards, go with the Rays-A's rematch in the AL and Nationals-Reds in the NL.
The White Sox and Blue Jays should be pushing wild-card contention in the AL, with the Brewers, Mets and Diamondbacks making a push in the NL.
The safest World Series pick will be to turn back the clock to 1977, 1978 or 1981. Yankees-Dodgers. Go with the Bombers in six.
