Here’s What You Need To Know About The November Election.
Democrat Amy Kennedy holds a 5 to 6 percentage-point advantage over incumbent Republican U.S. Rep. Jeff Van Drew in the hotly contested 2nd District of New Jersey, according to a Monmouth University Poll of 588 registered voters.
The two will take part in a debate at 8 p.m. Thursday that will be televised on NJTV and streamed on the website of the William J. Hughes Center for Public Policy at Stockton University, stockton.edu/hughes-center.
The poll by the independent Monmouth Polling Institute found Kennedy is supported by 49% of registered voters, while Van Drew has the support of 44%. Among likely voters in a high-turnout election, Kennedy holds a 50% to 44% advantage, according to the poll.
Most experts are predicting a record-high turnout for the Nov. 3 general election, which will be conducted mostly via vote-by-mail.
People are also reading…
The margin of error is plus or minus 4.1%, according to the polling institute. Of those polled, 30% were registered Republicans, 32% Democrats and 38% unaffiliated or registered with third parties, the institute said. That is roughly the makeup of the district.
The 2nd District covers all or part of eight South Jersey counties.
“Cape May and Cumberland county voters got used to supporting Van Drew on the Democratic ticket. This time around many of them are sticking with the party rather than the candidate,” said Patrick Murray, director of the institute.
In Atlantic County, the largest county in the district with 40% of its voters, Kennedy’s lead is strong, the poll found. It’s the Brigantine resident’s home county, and it found she leads there 54% to 39%.
Michael Suleiman, head of the Democratic Party in Atlantic County, celebrated.
“Jefferson Van Drew is wishing he took my advice and stood up for the people of South Jersey,” Suleiman said, referring to Van Drew’s refusal to vote to impeach Trump, leading to his becoming a Republican. “Instead, he is on the verge of becoming a one-hit-wonder.”
But Keith Davis, chair of Atlantic County Republicans, predicted Van Drew will win.
“It reminds me of the Monmouth University poll’s headline from Nov. 7, 2016: ‘[Hillary] Clinton Leads by 6 Points’,” Davis said. “They got it wrong then, they have it wrong now.”
The district voted for President Donald Trump in the 2016 presidential election. But the poll also found this time around, former Vice President Joe Biden is leading Trump 48% to 45% among all registered voters, and 50% to 45% among likely voters in a high turnout election.
Nearly half of 2nd District voters said they are very bothered or somewhat bothered by Van Drew being elected as a Democrat and now running for reelection as a Republican.
Two-thirds of voters were aware that Kennedy married into the famous political family from Massachusetts, and 60% said that connection had no impact on them, while 20% saw it as a positive and 17% as a negative.
The poll was conducted by telephone and online from Sept. 26 to Oct. 1, with 588 registered district voters sampled from a voter list file, the institute said.
Thursday’s debate is co-sponsored by NJTV, New Jersey’s public television network, and the Hughes Center. It will take place in the Fannie Lou Hamer Event Room at the Stockton Atlantic City campus, but there will be no public audience due to the COVID-19 pandemic.
Groups oppose ballot question on redistricting
The League of Women Voters of New Jersey and its Fair Districts New Jersey group are urging voters to vote “no” on statewide Public Question 3, which would postpone redistricting for two years if U.S. Census data is not received by Feb. 15.
“While the public question is said to be in response to the COVID-19 pandemic’s possible impact on the U.S. Census Bureau’s timeline for delivery of population counted to each state, the proposal goes too far and would be permanent,” according to a League of Women Voters statement.
It would also postpone making changes in districts that reflect the increasing diversity of the state, the groups said.
Redistricting is done every 10 years, in years that U.S. Census data becomes available. Under normal circumstances, the deadline for the Census Bureau to deliver Census data to the states is April 1, but as a courtesy, the U.S. Census Bureau has tried to deliver the data to New Jersey and Virginia earlier because these states hold elections in the year following the Census.
