PHOENIX — A higher percentage of Arizonans have been knocked off food stamps since Congress approved the budget law known as HR 1 than any other state in the nation, according to a new study.
The report by the Center for Budget and Policy Priorities says participation in the Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program dropped by 2.5 million nationwide since the federal law and its new requirements were enacted in July and December. That translates to about 6% using figures from the U.S. Department of Agriculture.
The same USDA data shows a 32% drop in Arizona in the program, which provides benefits averaging $312 per month for all households and $520 for households with children.
And it may be even more extreme: The study says more recent figures from Arizona's Department of Economic Security show a 47% decrease, a reduction of more than 400,000, including 180,000 children — leaving fewer than 490,000 recipients as of February.
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Less clear is the "why'' behind Arizona's big drop.
Gubernatorial press aide Christian Slater said some of it is due to the requirements of HR 1. Dubbed the "Big Beautiful Bill'' by President Donald Trump, it contained a number of changes to the SNAP program, such as expanding work requirements to cover able-bodied single adults up to age 65.
It also included shifting more of the costs of administering the program to states.
That's not all. It also says states that do not get their error rates down below 6% will end up having to pick up anywhere up to 15% of the actual cost of the benefits, which until now were fully paid by the federal government.
Arizona in the 2023-2024 budget year had an 8.8% error rate. But for the last fiscal year, the rate was projected to be 10.4%.
A report by the state Office of Strategic Planning and Budgeting — an arm of Gov. Katie Hobbs' office — pointed out that error rate is still below the national average of 10.9%. But the report said if the rate remained at 8.8%, the state could have to cover $195.4 million in the 2027-2028 fiscal year.
And if the error rate hits 10%, that figure could reach nearly $300 million.
Participation in the Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program dropped by 2.5 million nationwide since the federal law and its new requirements were enacted in July and December, a report by the Center for Budget and Policy Priorities says.
None of these penalties are unique to Arizona.
But Slater said what happened here — and at least part of the reason for the sharp decline in recipients — is complicated by two things.
One is that, even before HR 1, about 500 workers at the Arizona Department of Economic Security — about 5% of the workforce — were laid off in the summer of 2025, a move the state blamed on other federal budget cuts.
That came at the expense of eligibility workers, with DES saying the number of workers who reviewed food stamps eligibility dropped by 1,370 in July 2024 to 880 last July.
A spokesman said the department was processing an estimated 54,000 new and renewal applications, of which 18,000 were taking more than 30 days.
And that gets to the other half of the problem.
Slater said that Arizona, aware of the penalties for not getting its error rate down, was proactive in doing the greater checks to ensure that only those eligible under the new HR 1 rules are getting the aid.
But with fewer staff, that resulted in some applications and renewals being delayed — or denied outright — when people could not provide the required information, dropping them off the rolls.
In December, Hobbs responded by earmarking $7.5 million in unused federal COVID relief money to address what she called "staffing constraints'' at DES. That included hiring temporary workers and expanding the department's capacity to verify applicants' incomes.
Even with all that, the data from DES that the new report cites shows a continued sharp decline in food stamp recipients, down from 598,852 in December to 485,460 in February.
But Slater said that other states, for whatever reason, may not have yet made the same changes as Arizona in screening to reduce their error rates. He predicted that the decline in food stamp recipients that is showing up now in Arizona is just a precursor to what will be reflected in data from other states in coming months.
That's also the assessment of DES spokesman Brett Bezio.
"It is important to note that we believe most of the impact of the changes from HR 1 have been realized, and we will begin to see consistency in the SNAP caseload in the months ahead,'' he said. "As other states fully implement the provisions of HR 1 and Arizona stabilizes, we expect differences in caseload decline between other states to more closely align."
Bezio also said Hobbs has requested an additional $48.4 million for DES for the coming budget year, including 146 new employees. He said that should cut delays as well as help ensure the state gets below the error rate at which point there would be penalties.
There is, of course, a political angle to all of this.
Slater, spokesman for the Democratic governor, said what is happening in Arizona — and what he believes will soon occur in other states — is precisely what was intended by the Republican Trump administration.
Agriculture Secretary Brooke Rollins, in announcing a 3.3 million reduction in SNAP recipients, called it "a signal that the federal government is once again working for the American public.''
It's not just the president. Slater noted that every Republican in the state's congressional delegation voted for HR 1, including the food stamp provisions.
Republican U.S. Rep. David Schweikert of Arizona has his own take, however, on why there's been a sudden drop in SNAP recipients.
"States were incentivized to reduce errors and manage benefits efficiently,'' he said of HR 1. But he said the 10.4% error rate in the most recent fiscal year meant Arizona had to do a lot more culling of ineligible recipients.
"Arizona's outsized reductions is a clear outlier, demonstrating the management failures of this governor,'' said Schweikert, who is running for governor, hoping to oust Hobbs in November.
He also pointed out something that even DES has acknowledged: its use until recently of 1980s technology. While it is being replaced, there have been problems with the new system.
"After seeing billions of taxpayer dollars go to fraudsters through our state's Medicaid program, Arizonans have been clear that they want substantive reforms targeting waste, fraud, and abuse in all government programs,'' said Drew Sexton. He is running the gubernatorial campaign for U.S. Rep. Andy Biggs, the other Republican running for governor and hoping to take on Hobbs.
Sexton said Biggs wants to create prosperity and economic growth "where every Arizona family can become self-sufficient while Katie Hobbs wants more people dependent on state government."
Democratic U.S. Rep. Adelita Grijalva of Tucson countered: "When Republicans said they are going after 'waste, fraud, and abuse,' let's remember what that really means: children going hungry and families being pushed further into financial crisis," she said in a written statement. "It's time to reverse these devastating cuts to food assistance and healthcare, and finally focus on lowering costs.''
There appears to be nothing to show that Arizona, before HR 1, had a higher percentage of its residents on food stamps than the rest of the nation.
In a separate report, the Center for Budget and Policy Priorities says the number of Arizonans on food stamps — estimated at 923,400 in the last budget year — amounted to 12% of the state population. That is in line with national figures showing a 12% participation rate in the program.
It also finds that 68% of Arizona SNAP participants are in families with children, compared with 62% nationally. And 40% are in working families versus 38% for the country as a whole.
Howard Fischer is a veteran journalist who has been reporting since 1970 and covering state politics and the Legislature since 1982. Follow him on X, formerly known as Twitter, Bluesky, and Threads at @azcapmedia or email azcapmedia@gmail.com.
