What Covid-19 hospitalization numbers do – and don't – tell us

But they don't tell you everything.

Covid-19 deaths in Erie County have been rising, but not like last year

Since the holidays ended, the number of local residents hospitalized with Covid-19 has been skyrocketing, exceeding all-time Covid-19-related highs in December. Hospitalization charts show the number of admitted patients going straight up.

But in recent days, new data has been shared indicating that while many more patients are testing positive for Covid-19, that doesn't mean that they are hospitalized because they have Covid-19.

Over the past week, Erie County Executive Mark Poloncarz has been releasing daily data showing that roughly a third of all patients who are counted as hospitalized Covid-19 patients were not originally admitted because of Covid-19 symptoms or illnesses. They happened to test positive because Covid-19 tests are performed on all admitted patients, many of whom are in the hospital for other illnesses or injuries.

"We finally got data from New York State that shows why people are admitted," Poloncarz said in a meeting Tuesday with Buffalo News editors and reporters. "Are they admitted for Covid? Are they admitted for something else – car crash, surgery?"

A deeper look at these numbers indicates that as of the first few days of this week, the number of people hospitalized specifically for Covid-19 is actually starting to fall, he said. That could indicate that the Omicron variant is sweeping quickly through the region and may have already reached its peak, as many health experts have predicted it would.

Until a couple of weeks ago, the number of people with Covid-19 who were hospitalized without realizing they were infected with the virus hovered in the 8% to 10% range, Poloncarz said. But that has rapidly changed. Now, a third or more of the people who are hospitalized with the virus are not at the hospital because the virus is making them feel sick. They discovered their illness after their arrival.

The Omicron variant, which typically presents milder symptoms than the Delta variant in healthy people, is considered the dominant strain of Covid-19 in Western New York these days. This could account for why people are being hospitalized without knowing they are infected and why the number of Covid-19 patients in intensive care units has remained level.

But while symptoms are mild for many people, the virus continues to be a serious public health concern. Poloncarz said Tuesday that deaths among residents with Covid-19 has reached an average of seven per day.