Tucson likely warmer, drier through end of 2022

Tucson will likely see slightly below precipitation and above average temperatures throughout October, November and December, according to the seasonal precipitation and temperature outlook from the National Weather Service.

These trends are also anticipated to continue through winter as La Niña is expected for a third year, the Weather Service said.

La Niña has caused winters in Tucson to be drier and warmer for the past few years, the NWS said. Last year throughout October, November and December, Tucson saw a total of 1.36 inches of rain. In 2020, Tucson received a total of 0.40 inches of rain during the same period.

The average amount of rainfall seen during that three-month period is 2.19 inches, the NWS said.

Before Tucson can gear up for fall and winter, the 2022 monsoon still needs a final push to get to average rainfall.

Temperatures this weekend are predicted to run a few degrees above normal, the NWS said. Both Saturday and Sunday will have highs in the low 100s.

The sunny weather is not expected to last long.

Increasing moisture will lead to scattered showers and storms as well as cooler temperatures next week, the forecast shows. Starting Monday night, there is a 20% chance of thunderstorms.

Tuesday, Wednesday and Thursday all have 30% chances of showers and thunderstorms, the NWS said.

So far this monsoon season, Tucson has received a total for 4.48 inches of rain. August storms helped Tucson catch up, bringing the total to slightly below average.

There are still two weeks left for Tucson to reach the average rainfall seen during a monsoon. Typically, Tucson receives a total of 5.69 inches of rain.

The 2022 monsoon officially ends on Sept. 30.