Early voting does not necessarily equal lots of voting in the hot contest for mayor of Buffalo between incumbent Byron W. Brown and Democratic nominee India B. Walton.Â
Elections officials said Sunday that lower than expected turnout has marked much of the polling activity as early voting wrapped up Sunday afternoon. Jeremy J. Zellner, Erie County's Democratic elections commissioner, said 35,421 voters throughout Erie County have taken advantage of 38 early-voting sites as of Sunday afternoon, which he labeled as being below expectations.
Both campaigns said they are doing everything conceivable – from door-knocking to phone-banking to texting – to turn out every single one of their loyal voters while hoping to win some decisive last-minute converts.
"I thought that with all the media coverage, a possible change after 16 years, or the mayor winning a historic write-in vote, we would see a lot more turnout," he said. "Maybe that will change on Tuesday. We're still in the infancy of early voting."
Preliminary tabulations at the close of the polls Sunday showed that 4,589 voters cast ballots on the ninth and final day of early voting, bringing the adjusted overall total to 39,884.Â
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Sunday's count included 1,834 ballots from voters registered in the City of Buffalo, for an overall total of 15,777.
Following a day of attending services at several East Side churches and campaigning in bars showing Sunday's Miami Dolphins-Buffalo Bills game, Brown said that even if elections officials saw relatively weak numbers, he felt good about the early voting totals.
"Today, we'll be over 14,000 for early voting, and that's significantly more than in the primary," he said, referring to tallies within the city, noting the totals are approaching 50% of numbers reported in 2020, a presidential year. Years with presidential elections traditionally result in the strongest turnout.
With just three days left in one of the most intense mayoral races in Buffalo history, India Walton and Byron Brown took to the streets Saturday to shake hands, hand out candy and persuade any undecided voters to come to their side.
"We think that's pretty good," he said, noting that many voters at early sites were asking for his "Write Down Byron Brown" stamps for use in his write-in effort.
The Walton campaign did not comment, except to note that volunteers would be showing up with Walton signs at various early voting venues throughout the city.
Zellner, who is also chairman of the Erie County Democratic Party and a Walton supporter, said voters in South Buffalo at the Tosh Collins Senior Center continue to register the highest turnout so far at about 2,700. That compares to about 1,900 at the Delevan-Grider Community Center on the East Side, 1,600 at the Theodore Roosevelt Inaugural Site on Delaware Avenue and 2,200 at the North Buffalo Community Center.
"South Buffalo still has the highest turnout in the city," Zellner said.
Though nobody is making predictions, South Buffalo is expected to emerge as a Brown stronghold because of its strong concentration of police officers, firefighters and other city workers thought to be in his camp.
Since defeating incumbent Mayor Byron W. Brown in the June Democratic primary, Walton has gone from "India Who?" to universally recognized on the streets of Buffalo.
Walton, however, dismissed much of the early voting numbers from South Buffalo. Noting that voters could cast early ballots at any polling site in the county, she said some of the South Buffalo votes could stem from striking workers at Mercy Hospital who support her.
Zellner, meanwhile, also noted another possible mayoral advantage in the low numbers of young voters (often viewed as Walton supporters) in the early totals.
"We're not seeing a huge turnout of new voters or those who do not vote regularly," he said. "Most of the voters are regular voters."
The Board of Elections' preliminary analysis, he added, shows only about 12% of early voters are under 35. And though speculation around early numbers may amount to little when all the votes are tabulated, Zellner said they could point to a Brown advantage.
"Given the age dynamics, it seems those (early) voters could be for Mayor Brown," he said, noting that numbers could change when new voters unfamiliar with procedures show up on Tuesday, while older voters may also feel more comfortable with an Election Day vote.
Brown, a veteran of the city's formidable Democratic politics finds himself in uncharted territory. If he wants to win a fifth term as mayor, he must do it in a write-in effort rarely attempted on such a large scale.
"I thought there would be more early voters, but it could be that Election Day will be off the charts," the commissioner added.
The candidates, meanwhile, were reporting relatively quiet Sundays in view of the Halloween holiday and Bills contest capturing much of the area's interest. Walton reported support from the Neighborhood Assistance Corporation of America (NACA), a non-profit, community advocacy organization offering assistance for affordable home ownership. The group was texting "get out the vote" messages Sunday, according to campaign spokesman Jesse Myerson.
Brown said he expected to spend Monday touring small businesses throughout the city and knocking on doors before Election Day voting from 6 a.m. to 9 p.m. on Tuesday. Â
