Ukraine's northeastern front could decide new battle lines

KUPIANSK, Ukraine — A tank carrying Ukrainian infantry speeds toward a target position marked with a metal sheet. The soldiers climb down, hurl grenades and unleash a crackle of machine-gun fire. Then they repeat the moves, getting faster with every iteration.

It's only a drill. But with the sounds of the real war rumbling just four miles away, this daily training underscores the high stakes on Ukraine's northeastern front, where military officials say a much-anticipated Russian offensive already started, with fighting that could determine the next phase of the conflict.

Time is of the essence here, so speed and cohesion is the goal of the exercises that combine reserve tank and the infantry assault units.

"Synchronization will be important to halt Russian offensives toward Ukrainian defensive lines," said Col. Petro Skyba, a battalion commander of the 3rd Separate Tank Iron Brigade.

Grueling artillery battles stepped up in recent weeks in the vicinity of Kupiansk, a strategic town on the eastern edge of Kharkiv province by the banks of the Oskil River. The Russian attacks are part of an intensifying push to capture the entire industrial heartland known as the Donbas, which includes the Donetsk and Luhansk provinces. It would be a much-needed victory for the Kremlin.

Triumph in Kupiansk could decide future lines of attack for both sides: If Russia succeeds in pushing Ukrainian forces west of the river, it would clear the path for a significant offensive farther south where the administrative borders of Luhansk and Donestk meet. If the Ukrainian defense holds up, it could reveal Russian vulnerabilities and enable a counteroffensive.

"The enemy is constantly increasing its efforts, but our troops are also increasing their efforts there, making timely replacements and holding the defense," said Brig. Gen. Dmytro Krasylnykov, commander of the joint group of troops in the Kharkiv region.

Across the towns and villages in the path of the fighting, homes were razed by constant Russian bombardment, with some residences hit repeatedly. Civilians wait in the cold for food and line up to receive rations of milk and materials to cover shattered windows.

"We don't have anything to do with this war, so why do we pay the price?" asked Oleksandr Luzhan, whose mother's house was struck twice.

On the battlefield, Ukrainian soldiers put a rocket launcher in the fighting position, aiming the weapons in line with coordinates sent by their commanders. They wait for the final order.

"Fire!" — a salvo of rockets blasts into the sky toward Russian targets, often armored personnel carriers or tanks. To escape any counterattack, the service members of the Ukraine army's 14th Brigade pack up and leave, trundling away in the Soviet-era BM-21 "Grad."

There are no quick wins, said Vitaly, the operation's gunner, who gave only his first name in line with Ukrainian military protocols. "It's war — someone retreats, someone advances. Every day there is a change of position."

Russia ramped up attacks earlier in February after deploying three major divisions to the area. Fighting is focused northeast of Kupiansk, where Kremlin troops have gone on the offensive with marginal territorial gains. Ukrainian fortifications so far deterred major advances, Ukrainian senior military officials said.

For Russia, the Kupiansk operation serves two aims: Dislodging Ukrainian forces from settlements along the provincial borders would enable the capture of Luhansk province. Pushing back Ukrainian troops west of the Oskil River and locking them there would create a new defensive line and prevent deployments to the critical Svatove-Kreminna line further south, where a separate Russian offensive is underway to capture the Donestk region by reclaiming abandoned posts in Lyman. Svatove, occupied by Moscow last spring, is 37 miles southeast of Kupianske.

Ukrainian forces are counting on improving coordination between infantry and tank units to deprive Russia of the opportunity to breach Ukrainian lines. Ukrainian forces still control settlements inside Luhansk near the border with Kharkiv.

Artillery and ammunition shortages are a real concern on this front where the landscape is heavily forested, small villages are separated by vast farmland and Ukrainian soldiers come under nine hours of shelling some days. Long-range weapons would contribute to quicker wins in such an environment, Krasylnkov said.

Russian bombardment of Kupiansk, a town with a prewar population of 27,000, has become so frequent that "every time we go to sleep we pray to God we will wake up in the morning," Olena Klymko said. At times the strikes appear to have clear targets where soldiers pass through. Other times, they are indiscriminate.

The shelling is even more intense in the suburbs of Kupiansk, closer to Russian lines where access to supplies is also limited.

Residents from the border village of Vovchansk drive three hours to a makeshift bridge on the Pechenizhske Reservoir leading to Kharkiv. It is the only way they can retrieve supplies, residents said. They rarely leave their homes, fearful of the intense shelling.

But like many Ukrainians living in similar danger zones along the 620-mile front line, most are unwilling to leave their hometowns for good.

In the village of Zelena, dozens of older residents waited under a bus shelter amid heavy snows for a food truck to arrive.

"Today is a quiet day, thank god," said Victoria Bromska, wheeling her food parcel back home.