Local opinion: Ciscomani, insanity and the costs of war

In late February, Representative Ciscomani expressed unequivocal support for President Trump's decision to attack Iran. On May 4, Arizona Public Media asked Ciscomani "was the Iran War worth it?". Ciscomani replied, “This is something that the whole world talked about needed to be done, for generations and for decades. And no one ever did anything about it, and now President Trump took the action. The world is a safer place without the Iranian regime that was there. And this process is coming to an end very close here. We’re going to see the benefits in the long run.” Do not hold your breath.

Putting aside a cost/benefit analysis, there is longstanding and broad agreement that replacing the theocratic regime in Iran would likely be an improvement, just as there was broad agreement in 2003 that removal of Saddam Hussein in Iraq would likely be an improvement.

In the case of Iraq, G.W. Bush clearly stated the objectives of the invasion of Iraq; he sought approval from Congress, allies, and the United Nations; the Pentagon estimated the cost of invading Iraq to be on the order of 50-60 billion; and we expected to be welcomed as liberators. In hindsight, the justification for the Iraq War, Iraqi possession of weapons of mass destruction, was nonsense; the financial cost of the war was more on the order of 3+ trillion dollars, and the costs in lives, health care for Veterans, and our credibility as a nation continue to pile on. On the bright side, Iraq is now a democratic state that does not pose a threat to its neighbors. But overall, until recently, the Iraq War was often assessed to be this nation's greatest foreign policy blunder.

In the case of Iran, on Feb. 28, Trump listed various objectives: regime change, elimination of support for proxies such as Hezbollah, Hamas and the Houthis, and bans on ballistic missile and nuclear-related programs. Trump assumed that Pentagon warnings about the closure of the Strait of Hormuz were overblown, and by replacing the religious zealots with Venezuelan-esque toadies, we would actually make money — there would be no costs. Unfortunately, reality has intervened.

The result has been a cacophony of contradictions. On March 28, Trump asserted that regime change had been achieved, and on July 6 he described the "third tier" of Iranian leaders as "more reasonable"; now they are vicious thugs, and worse. The June 17 memorandum of understanding, which Trump claimed achieved peace in our time, did not address any of the original Trump objectives; the MOU is now null and void, and shooting and the blockade of Iranian ports are on again. A week ago, Trump (illegally) imposed a 20% fee for transit of the Strait; that is now off the table. He has most recently reverted to threatening to blow up power plants, which would be a war crime; to clean this up, the administration is on a crusade to disband the International Criminal Court.

This is a small sampling of the insanity that has to be stopped (see Jerry Wilkinson's July 16 op-ed for more examples of Trumpian nonsense).

Let's be real. We cannot impose regime change — the costs would dwarf the costs of the Iraq debacle. Committing war crimes should be off the table. The only alternative is to withdraw. This will have disastrous political and economic consequences. But the Trump administration is incapable of doing anything constructive. The tasks of negotiating the future of the Strait, and of Iran's nuclear stockpile, will have to be handled by an international alliance, the shape of which remains to be determined. The world is tragically better off without American leadership.

The only way to stop this insanity is for Congress to assert its authority and cut off funding. The prospects of this are dim. Ciscomani and his fellow Republicans have repeatedly passed on even debating the merits of this war. Trump has asked for a half-a-trillion/year increase in the defense budget. The House Budget Committee recently passed a $75 billion down payment — without any consideration of how to pay for it. They are in a rush to start summer vacation.