One common wisdom about the NBA draft is that if you're a near-certain Top 10 pick, you go. No matter what year you are, no matter what other circumstances.
So on Saturday, Jerryd Bayless went.
The dynamic Arizona Wildcats freshman guard announced he would be an early-entry candidate for the draft, giving up his final three years of college eligibility.
"I've thought carefully about my options since the end of the season, discussed it with my parents and others who could give me appropriate guidance, and made this decision with a clear mind," Bayless said in a UA statement. "It's the right time for me to move on. I appreciate the opportunity I had to be part of the Arizona basketball team this year."
Bayless does not plan to quickly hire an agent but will definitely be leaving the UA, said his father, Brad. Major draft analysts project Bayless solidly in the Top 10, and Bayless' family received comparable information from NBA sources.
People are also reading…
"It was based on his performance this year and the feedback from various people," Brad Bayless said. "It was a family decision as to what was in his best interests at this particular point in time."
The draft-stock issue weighed heavy in a combination of factors that also included the possibility of Bayless' getting hurt next season, dropping in the draft because of competition or other reasons, and the stability of the UA coaching situation.
As of now, Bayless is projected to go between the Nos. 3 and 7 picks, meaning at worst he would receive a first-year salary of $2.62 million plus any endorsement money. That kind of security might be there next year and it might not, the way the family looked at it.
"What is coming back going to do for him, assuming he's going to be 3 to 7?" Brad Bayless said. "Let's say he drops to eight. Or he could stay another year and be five. I'm not sure what difference that makes. He's ready to play and he's ready to move on to the next level."
UA coach Lute Olson, who met with Bayless' family on March 27, said he believed Bayless would be drafted fifth or sixth but offered another viewpoint on staying.
"I was asked, 'Would it be fair for him to leave $2 million on the table, have you ever had anyone else in that situation?' " Olson said last week. "I said, 'Well, Sean Elliott had an opportunity to go probably in the top eight after his junior year, opted to stay, and all he made for his one year was $6 million difference in the contract' " as a No. 3 pick.
As it is, though, Bayless will leave Olson without playing a game under him. The Wildcats were coached by Kevin O'Neill on an interim basis all season.
"I'm disappointed because I didn't have one year to work with him, to coach him," Olson said in a UA statement. "Jerryd's going to be a great player in the NBA. He's an unbelievable kid with great character, and he's a great competitor.
"I wish him nothing but the best of luck and I know he will represent the University of Arizona and the state of Arizona very well in the future."
During Olson's season-long leave of absence, O'Neill was named an eventual successor and then Olson announced last week that O'Neill wouldn't be back. Bayless' mother, Denise Bowman, said last week that the family was hearing "mixed messages" about the coaching and that the situation could affect Jerryd's decision.
Bowman was unavailable for comment Saturday, but Brad Bayless said the coaching situation was a secondary issue.
"There were a lot of differences in philosophy between O'Neill and Olson and that's pretty much public knowledge at this point," Brad Bayless said. "That was one factor we looked at, obviously. But the primary factor we looked at was what was in Jerryd's best interests. It has no reflection on them."
But Brad Bayless said the family did consider injuries, possible 2009 draft entrants and other factors that could lower Jerryd's stock next spring.
"It happens to a lot of players who stay another year and their stock drops," Brad Bayless said. "There's a lot of risk involved."
Partly for that reason, O'Neill said during the season, high projected NBA draft picks should go. O'Neill said after the season that he would like to see Bayless stay, but said Saturday in a phone interview from his New York off-season home that he wished Bayless the best.
Bayless was O'Neill's top player last season, leading the Wildcats in scoring with a 19.7 average and 4.0 assists per game. He also played an average of 35.7 minutes a game, 36.6 in Pac-10 play.
Among other evidence of Bayless' value to the team: The fact that they lost 3 of 4 games without him around New Year's, and the 31 or more points he scored in three straight games in February, when he was forced to take the point guard role because of Nic Wise's knee injury.
"I applaud his efforts the entire year," O'Neill said. "And I feel like he's going to be a great pro."
Taking an early shot
Ten previous Arizona basketball players have declared for the NBA draft before their college eligibility expired, though three of them returned to school after doing so.
Year Player Result
2007 Marcus Williams No. 33 (San Antonio)
2006 Mustafa Shakur Returned to school
2005 Chris Rodgers Returned to school
2004 Andre Iguodala No. 9 (Philadelphia)
2001 Jason Gardner Returned to school
2001 Richard Jefferson No. 13 (Houston)
2001 Michael Wright No. 39 (New York)
2001 Gilbert Arenas No. 31 (Golden State)
1998 Mike Bibby No. 2 (Vancouver)
1991 Brian Williams No. 10 (Orlando)

