If this were any other franchise, we’d be saying the New England Patriots are staring at two years, probably three, before they’re relevant again.
Of course, it’s not any franchise. It’s the Colossus of Foxborough. It’s Darth Hoodie.
I remember writing a column in 2010 saying the Patriots were penny wise and pound foolish to play hardball in contract talks with Randy Moss and then to part ways with him a month into the campaign.
I still think I had a semblance of a point. New England lost to the Jets in the playoffs that year. But they did go 14-2 and ... you know the story.
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That was the last time I criticized Bill Belichick in print for his management. Belichick makes personnel mistakes, like everybody. But the Patriots’ organizational batting average is remarkable.
Thus, this is not a column writing off the Patriots.
But man, Belichick has a heavy lift this offseason to overhaul the roster that will take the field against the Bills on Monday night.
“Bill Belichick is hardly ever without potential answers to a problem,” ESPN’s Louis Riddick, who will help call Monday’s telecast, said earlier this year.
Here’s a short summary of the big issues facing the Pats:
Quarterback. The Pats will pick about 15th in the draft. There probably will be five teams picking ahead of the Pats that need a quarterback (Jets, Jaguars, Panthers, Falcons and Niners) and maybe six (Bears). It’s early to forecast. Clemson’s Trevor Lawrence and Ohio State’s Justin Fields seem sure to go 1-2. North Dakota State’s Trey Lance and BYU’s Zach Wilson are good bets for the top 10. That leaves Alabama’s Mac Jones and Florida’s Kyle Trask as candidates for No. 15. Maybe. Neither one of them is as good a prospect as Buffalo’s Josh Allen or Miami’s Tua Tagovailoa.
The other option is to land a veteran castoff, like the Niners’ Jimmy Garoppolo. Bills Mafia wouldn’t lose sleep over Jimmy G.
“The Patriots have played the long game, value game better than anyone over the past 20 years,” Riddick said.
The time for the value game is over at quarterback. The Pats somehow need a stud to compete with Buffalo and Miami.
Skill positions. The Pats arguably need two starting receivers and a better No. 1 tight end. Formerly undrafted Jakobi Meyers has played well and might be a serviceable possession receiver. Former No. 1 N’Keal Harry isn’t too promising after two seasons. Injured Julian Edelman will be 35 and might have played his last game for the Pats. They have two rookie tight ends, but neither looks special. They have the worst TE production in the NFL right now.
Front seven. They need a stud to anchor the front seven, either a full-time defensive end or starting outside linebacker – someone at the Chandler Jones level. Young edge rushers Chase Winovich and Josh Uche might develop, but neither sets the edge up to the Belichick standard.
Secondary. Top corner Stephon Gilmore and star free safety Devin McCourty have a year to go on their contracts. McCourty will be 34 next season. He will be a big loss. J.C. Jackson is ready to be the No. 1 corner. But they will need to find a starting corner somewhere to defend the Bills and Dolphins, because Gilmore will be gone after 2021.
New England gets back some good players who opted out due to the pandemic. Those include linebacker Dont’a Hightower, tackle Marcus Cannon and safety Patrick Chung, who will be 34 next season.
The Pats currently have the third most cap space for 2021 at $69 million, according to Spotrac.com. New England can fill some big holes in free agency. However, New England never has been a big-spending franchise. It will be very interesting to see how many big-money free agents they pursue. The presumption is they are not going to go on a giant spending spree.
Bill’s future. Belichick turns 69 in April. He has 310 wins as a head coach, counting playoffs, which is No. 3 all time. Don Shula is No. 1 at 347. George Halas is No. 2 at 324. So Belichick would need just two more seasons to pass Halas. He would need at least four more seasons to pass Shula, and that presumes he could get 9, 9, 10 and 10 wins (which won’t be easy).
Belichick (.678) already has a better win percentage than both Shula (.665) and Halas (.671), along with every other coach in the top 35 of the career win list. Many consider him the greatest coach in football history. But many great coaches at all levels have a hard time hanging up the headset. Halas and Marv Levy each coached to age 72. So did George Allen. Belichick is a great student of football history. Passing Halas and/or Shula would be significant to him. Few are privy to his plans, and I’m not suggesting that would be his prime motivation to keep going. Nevertheless, it’s easy to imagine him coaching at least two more years.
Zebra report. The Bills are the second most penalized team in the NFL (96 penalites), behind only Arizona (103). The Patriots are the least penalized (52).
Stats for the road. The Bills are No. 3 in the NFL in limiting opponents’ kickoff returns, holding foes to an average drive start of 23.8. Meanwhile, the Bills’ average drive start after kickoffs (27.1) is third best in the league. ... For whatever reason, the Patriots have had trouble in South Florida. With last week’s loss to the Dolphins, New England is 9-12 at Miami under Belichick. ... Cam Newton simply doesn’t look right, as anyone who watched the Miami game saw. He has gone 17 straight games with just one touchdown pass or fewer, the longest streak in the NFL in the last 20 years, according to ESPN’s Mike Reiss. ... Newton is one of only four QBs who have started at least 13 games and passed for five TDs or fewer. The others: Trent Dilfer (1995), Mike Livingston (1978) and Joe Ferguson (1973). Fergy had four as a rookie in O.J. Simpson’s 2,003-yard rushing season.
