Buffalo News' final mock draft: Uncertainty could produce a wild first round

The first two picks of the 2021 draft – Trevor Lawrence to the Jaguars and Zach Wilson to the Jets – were free spots on the bingo board.

“It’s always nice to start off a mock draft and know that you have the first pick right,” ESPN draft analyst Todd McShay said. “That’s a good jumping-off point.”

McShay, in fact, went a perfect 7 for 7 to open the 2021 draft – the most hits he’s had to start a draft in his career.

Don’t expect a repeat performance in 2022. If one word captures the essence of the 2022 draft, it’s uncertainty. That starts with the first overall pick – once again held by Jacksonville.

“When you don’t have that clear-cut, elite class, it makes it a little more difficult,” McShay said. “It becomes a little bit harder to anticipate and put together a final mock, because it just depends on which team is on the board.”

Don’t us mock drafters know it. The uncertainty is what makes the draft so compelling, though. With that, here is The Buffalo News’ final projection of how Thursday’s first round might play out:

1. Jacksonville Jaguars. Travon Walker, EDGE, Georgia. As of last week, the Jaguars were reportedly considering four players for the top pick, which speaks to the unpredictability of this class. Walker has pulled ahead as the betting favorite, with the idea being his physical tools give him the highest ceiling of any of this year’s edge rushers.

2. Detroit Lions. Aidan Hutchinson, EDGE, Michigan. This would be a nice scenario for the Lions, who would be able to keep Hutchinson in state. Hutchinson had 14 sacks, 15.5 tackles for loss and 64 pressures last season. He’s considered to be one of the “safest” players in the draft, meaning he has a low risk of being a bust. Detroit had just 30 sacks last year, third fewest in the NFL, so this would also fill a need.

3. Houston Texans. Kayvon Thibodeaux, EDGE, Oregon. What do you give a team that needs everything? Having a quarterback is the most important thing for NFL teams. Second most important might be having defenders who can bring down the quarterback. Thibodeaux can do that. He’s one of the more polarizing prospects in this class, but he plays a premier position, which should push him up the board.

4. New York Jets. Ahmad Gardner, CB, Cincinnati. The Jets’ needs – edge rusher, cornerback, offensive tackle and wide receiver – pair up well with this year’s draft. In this case, with three pass rushers already off the board, the Jets can get the consensus No. 1 cornerback in this year’s class and then fill one of their other needs from the above list with their next first-round pick, No. 10.

5. New York Giants. Charles Cross, OT, Mississippi State. There has been a lot of buzz that the Giants, led by Joe Schoen and Brian Daboll, are high on Cross. If that’s the case, it makes sense to take him here, ahead of the Panthers at No. 6, because they might also be in on offensive linemen.

6. Carolina Panthers. Evan Neal, OT, Alabama. Mind-blowing fact of the day: The Panthers have had a different starting left tackle at the beginning of every season since Jordan Gross retired in 2013. Neal would finally give them someone to solidify that position. He doesn’t, however, answer the question of who will play quarterback.

7. New York Giants. Kyle Hamilton, S, Notre Dame. It’s been well established that Schoen would like to move down from this pick, perhaps to add another first-round selection in 2023, with the idea being he might need ammunition to go after a quarterback. Unfortunately for him, there doesn’t seem to be much of an appetite for teams to move up. If that remains the case, selecting Hamilton makes sense. Schoen and Daboll have seen in Buffalo what it can mean for a defense to be strong at safety, as the Bills are with Jordan Poyer and Micah Hyde. Hamilton is another prospect considered to have a low risk of bust potential.

8. Atlanta Falcons. Garrett Wilson, WR, Ohio State. There is no consensus on the best wide receiver in the class, but Wilson is frequently in that discussion. The Falcons have an obvious need at the position, with Calvin Ridley suspended for the year and Russell Gage having departed in free agency. NFL Network draft analyst Daniel Jeremiah has compared Wilson to Bills star Stefon Diggs.

9. Seattle Seahawks. Ickey Ekwonu, OT, N.C. State. It would be somewhat of a surprise if Ekwonu stuck on the board this long. The suddenly rebuilding Seahawks also need help at edge rusher or cornerback, too, so they have a number of different directions they could go.

10. New York Jets. Jameson Williams, WR, Alabama. The Jets were all in on trying to acquire former Chiefs receiver Tyreek Hill, so it’s clear giving quarterback Zach Wilson more help in his second season is a priority. Williams might not do that right away – he’s recovering from a torn ACL suffered in January during the national championship game – but he has speed that has drawn some comparisons to Hill.

11. Washington Commanders. Drake London, WR, Southern Cal. If Hamilton slips out of the top 10, he could go here. With that not being the case in this projection, though, Washington addresses its need at receiver with London, who is one of the biggest targets in the class at 6-foot-4.

12. Minnesota Vikings. Derek Stingley Jr., CB, LSU. Stingley is another prospect who has a wide range of opinions. Some see the player who dominated the SEC as a true freshman in 2019, while others see the player who dealt with injuries over the past two seasons, missing significant time. The Vikings are a great landing spot for Stingley. He can be tutored by current Vikings cornerback Patrick Peterson, another LSU product.

13. Houston Texans. Jermaine Johnson II, EDGE, Florida State. For a rebuilding franchise, getting stronger on both lines of scrimmage is a good place to start. With their two first-round picks, the Texans attempt to do that. Johnson can play the run and pass.

14. Baltimore Ravens. Jordan Davis, DT, Georgia. Davis – who is a freak athlete – might not make it out of the top 10. The Ravens have long prioritized stopping the run, and the 6-foot-6, 341-pounder should immediately help. Davis ran a mind-bending 4.78-second 40-yard dash at the NFL scouting combine – incredible speed for someone his size.

15. Philadelphia Eagles. Trent McDuffie, CB, Washington. The way the top 14 picks have gone so far is probably not great for the Eagles, who have a need at edge rusher and are rumored to be enamored with Williams at wide receiver. As it is, they take another player considered to have a high floor in McDuffie.

16. New Orleans Saints. Trevor Penning, OT, Northern Iowa. This is one of the more popular mock draft selections – for good reason. The Saints lost Terron Armstead in free agency, and the offensive tackle depth in this class gets thin in a hurry. There could be some action from teams angling to get in front of New Orleans to draft Penning.

17. Los Angeles Chargers. Chris Olave, WR, Ohio State. Keep an eye on the Chargers moving ahead of the Saints for Penning. Since they fall short of that in this projection, it makes sense to give quarterback Justin Herbert another weapon. Olave’s best strength is in the vertical passing game, and Herbert has the arm to take advantage of that skill.

18. Philadelphia Eagles. Treylon Burks, WR, Arkansas. With quarterback-needy teams on the board behind them, there is a good chance the Eagles trade out of this pick. If not, they’re contractually obligated to take another wide receiver in the first round.

19. New Orleans Saints. Kenny Pickett, QB, Pitt. Jameis Winston doesn’t seem as if he’s going to be the long-term replacement for Drew Brees with the Saints. Perhaps Pickett can be.

20. Pittsburgh Steelers. Malik Willis, QB, Liberty. The Steelers signed Mitchell Trubisky away from the Bills in free agency, so they’ll be able to allow Willis to sit and watch for a year as he adjusts to the pro game.

21. New England Patriots. Devin Lloyd, LB, Utah. After watching the Bills’ offense pitch a perfect game against the Patriots’ defense in the playoffs, it crystalized the need for New England to get more athletic on defense. Lloyd is a good start.

22. Green Bay Packers. Jahan Dotson, WR, Penn State. After trading Davante Adams, the Packers almost have to come out of the first round with a receiver with at least one of their two picks, right?

23. Arizona Cardinals. Devonte Wyatt, DT, Georgia. The Cardinals are another team that could use a wide receiver, but it feels as if they’d be reaching here. Wyatt should contribute immediately on defense.

24. Dallas Cowboys. Kenyon Green, OL, Texas A&M. Green has the flexibility to play multiple spots up front, which is good news for Dallas, because the Cowboys’ offensive line has several needs.

25. Buffalo Bills. Andrew Booth, CB, Clemson. In the end, the most logical position ends up being the pick for General Manager Brandon Beane. It’s hard to ignore the need in the Bills’ secondary, especially with the uncertainty around when Tre’Davious White will be ready to play coming off a knee injury. Booth was a second-team All-Atlantic Coast Conference selection in 2021 after finishing with 37 tackles, three interceptions and five passes defensed in 11 starts.

The final line of Booth’s nfl.com scouting report neatly summarizes why he makes sense for the Bills: “He needs to play more football, but his ball-hawking instincts, burst to close and toughness in run support will be very appealing for zone teams looking for an upgrade at cornerback.”

That sounds like a prospect who will fit in nicely to Sean McDermott's defense.

26. Tennessee Titans. Zion Johnson, OL, Boston College. Johnson figures to be a Day 1 starter for the Titans, who are a sneaky team that could be in the quarterback market.

27. Tampa Bay Buccaneers. Travis Jones, DT, UConn. Jones would line up next to Vita Vea and make the Bucs awfully tough to run against.

28. Green Bay Packers. Nakobe Dean, LB, Georgia. Another member of the Bulldogs’ national championship defense goes in the first round.

29. Kansas City Chiefs. George Pickens, WR, Georgia. After trading away Tyreek Hill, it would be a big surprise if the Chiefs ended the first round without taking a wide receiver.

30. Kansas City Chiefs. David Ojabo, EDGE, Michigan. A bit of a luxury pick here for the Chiefs, but they can afford that. Ojabo isn’t expected to play in 2022 after tearing his Achilles tendon at Michigan’s pro day, but he would have likely been a top-15 pick otherwise. If his medical report shows he’s recovering well, he could end up being a nice value pick down the road for the Chiefs.

31. Cincinnati Bengals. Dax Hill, S, Michigan. Hill also has the versatility to play some cornerback.

32. Detroit Lions. Sam Howell, QB, North Carolina. The Lions have to find Jared Goff’s eventual replacement, and the last pick of the first round is a good place to look, because it includes the fifth-year option on the rookie contract.