Bills General Manager Brandon Beane plans to approach the third day of the NFL draft just as he has the last few years.
That the Bills’ roster is so strong could make it harder and harder for late-round selections to make the 53-man roster.
Beane, however, also has gotten a solid return on his investments by hitting on Day 3 picks such as wide receiver Gabriel Davis and kicker Tyler Bass.
With the Bills scheduled to make eight picks, including five Saturday, and with this draft considered deep, Beane could have an opportunity to package some of those late-round picks to trade up to select a player with potentially a greater chance to make an impact as a rookie.
Still, Beane doesn’t think his overall approach to Day 3 will change, with the caveat that he must adapt to each draft.
People are also reading…
“Yes and no,” he said last week. “It's still just following the board. I think every draft is different. ... I think it's my job and our staff's job to analyze each draft and find out what positions have depth, and then where is the depth in the rounds."
Beane emphasized with reporters last week that perpetual need to add depth, and the best way to add depth is through the draft, as players come into the league with cost-controlled contracts.
It’s not just a matter of adding a certain number of players at each position. If he makes a pick, he expects the player to compete for a spot.
“I'm not going into the draft saying `All right, eight guys can't make it in, no way, no how,' " Beane said. “But I'm also not trying to draft a player that I'm going the minute I turn the card in, (I think) `I don't see this guy making the roster.' So it is a fine balance.”
If his Day 3 philosophy is going to morph, this draft might not be the best indicator. Because of the backlog of eligible prospects, from players taking advantage of an extra year of eligibility due to Covid-19, the 2022 draft class is atypical.
“I feel like this is a deeper draft in the back end of the draft because of Covid and all that,” Beane said.
That could make him less likely to trade late-round picks this year.
Beane said it also will affect the market for undrafted free agents.
“I do think you'll see potentially more guys that were undrafted, in some years they would've been drafted,” Beane said. “There's always stories of undrafted guys that make it. But I can see a scenario where there's more that come out this year, because in other years of less depth they probably would've been a draft pick.”
Even for the players the Bills do select, Beane is realistic that not every pick will pan out.
“There may be a pick or two that we have that don't make it, but hopefully if they don't, we get them to practice squad,” Beane said.
That’s not a given, though. Last season, the Bills had two players whom they drafted in 2021 signed off their practice squad by other teams during the regular season. Offensive lineman Jack Anderson, a seventh-round pick from Texas Tech, and cornerback Rachad Wildgoose, a sixth-round pick from Wisconsin, did not make it a full season in Buffalo before they were poached. Anderson was signed by the Philadelphia Eagles in late September. Wildgoose was signed by the New York Jets in mid-December.
The Bills’ roster is in good shape relative to other teams coming out of free agency. They also enter the draft with perhaps a better opportunity than their 25th slot would indicate.
NFL analyst Warren Sharp, of SharpFootballAnalysis.com, dove into which teams have the most draft capital. The metric, as outlined for NBC Sports Edge, takes two models into account, to look at average performance in a player's first five years and average dollars earned in non-rookie contracts, both based upon draft slot.
Often, better teams will have less draft capital, and vice versa. But it’s not a direct correlation, and that the Bills come in at No. 16 in the league is notable. Five of last season's playoff teams have greater draft value this year: Philadelphia at No. 6, Kansas City at No. 7, Green Bay at No. 9, Dallas at No. 13 and New England at No. 15.
“The Bills had more wins the last two years than any back-to-back years since 1990-91, and this year they have more draft capital than each of their last two years,” Sharp wrote.
Sharp had the Bills at No. 24 in the league by this metric in 2021, and last, at No. 32, in 2020.
In examining the rest of the league, the AFC East bookends the NFL, according to Sharp's analysis: The Jets rank first, with the most draft capital. The Dolphins are last, in part from giving up picks in the trade for receiver Tyreek Hill.
Beane’s stance on not inherently trading picks when the roster is already deep is rooted in trying to minimize the dropoff as much as possible between starters and third string. It’s a straight-forward stance for any team, particularly given injuries and the never-ending search to find a competitive edge, and Beane finds it especially significant in getting the most realistic evaluation of other players.
“When you get in the preseason, it's important that running with that second and third team that you have as many good players as you can to evaluate everyone else,” Beane said. “If you've got a bad O-line as your second line or your third O-line, well, guess what? You can't evaluate that quarterback. And if (that quarterback is) on his back, you can't evaluate the receivers. And it just becomes a domino effect.”
So Beane aims to stick to the same plan.
“We've put a lot of work into it,” Beane said. “And if the board tells me we need to move up, (that) this is a valuable player that can help us, we'll do it. If it doesn't, then we'll stay pat or move back.”
