Bills Mailbag: Why did the Bills struggle in close games?

Before we touch down there, let’s get to this week’s Bills Mailbag.

Ed Helinski asks: What’s your take on the Bills’ 0-6 record this season in one-score games after going 6-1 in such games during the 2020 season? Is there anything that sticks out regarding this year’s shortcomings?

Jay: Bills coach Sean McDermott was asked about that at his end-of-season news conference. Here was his response: “You’ve got to take each one of those games separately and look at where we were at the end of the game, right? Without being too specific here, ‘Hey, why didn’t we get the result we were looking for?’ Did we have a chance to win the game at the end of the game? Which side of the ball was that? So you look at that and that’s why you can’t group them all together.

"At the end of the day, you want to make sure you have your detail, which leads to great execution at the critical moments of those games. I thought we got better through this season with that as we went and then we had a chance this last weekend and we weren’t as detailed and we didn’t execute as well as we needed to.”

We’ll spare everyone the recap of the loss to the Chiefs, because that’s been covered. During the regular season, the loss to the Steelers was by seven points, but it really wasn’t that close because the Bills would have had to recover an onside kick late, and the success rate of those is less than 10%.

The loss to Tennessee came down to a Josh Allen slip. The loss to New England can be chalked up to missed opportunities inside the red zone. The loss to Tampa Bay came down to that, along with a defensive breakdown in overtime that led to a long touchdown pass. If I were to single out one thing, it would probably be the offensive failures in the red zone as being the biggest problem in those close games.

Brenda Alesii asks: Let the speculation begin. Assuming Tre White returns to his stellar form after recovering from his injury, will the Bills consider signing free-agent cornerback Rasul Douglas?

Jay: To borrow a word from Doug Whaley, I’m not privy to the Bills’ exact free-agent board, but it’s reasonable to think Douglas would be on it. The Packers’ cornerback has succeeded in a zone-based scheme, making five interceptions this past season. Cornerback is arguably the No. 1 need on the Bills’ roster heading into free agency, with Levi Wallace an impending unrestricted free agent and no guarantee White will be 100% by September as he recovers from a torn ACL.

Dane Jackson played well for the Bills after White got hurt, but clearly the Bills will need reinforcements at the position. ESPN recently ranked Douglas No. 35 on its list of top impending free agents, and chose the Bills as his best team fit.

The issue, as it always is with free agency, figures to come down to money. Contracts website spotrac.com projects Douglas will get a deal valued at a bit more than $9 million per season. Interestingly enough, that’s just about the same value it projects for Wallace. To fit either of those deals under their salary cap, the Bills will have to make some moves to free up space. Both Wallace and Douglas are 26, so if the money truly is equal, it would be up to General Manager Brandon Beane to determine which one is a better fit for the defense.

Dennis Priore asks: Now that the Super Bowl is over and the Rams have beaten the Bengals, please put on your psychic cap, while using your knowledge of the Bills and the NFL. Let’s assume the Bills hang on to beat the Kansas City Chiefs 36-33 without the game going into overtime. How do you predict they would have fared at home the following week in the AFC championship game against the Bengals, and if they win that game, how do you think they would have fared against the Rams?

Jay: I think they would have won the Super Bowl. I understand that’s painful for fans to hear, but it’s the truth. With the way the Bills were playing offensively, I don’t think there was a defense that was going to stop Allen. Now, that’s not saying it would have been easy. The Bengals’ terrific trio of receivers – Ja’Marr Chase, Tee Higgins and Tyler Boyd – would have been a big challenge for the Bills’ secondary, but Cincinnati’s weak offensive line might have created some opportunities for the Bills’ defensive line.

The atmosphere for a home AFC championship game would have been spectacular. As for the Super Bowl, the Rams’ defensive line is scary, but again, the Bills’ offense was functioning at such a high level in the postseason that I wouldn’t have bet against them. While not the best offensive line in the league, the Bills are an upgrade from the Bengals in that area, so that would have made a big difference. If the Bills’ secondary forced two interceptions as Cincinnati did, I’d say there would have been a parade down Delaware Avenue about 10 days ago.

Bill from Wheatfield asks: I hope you enjoyed LA and the Super Bowl. Do you think that the special teams coaching change had anything to do with the fact that the kickoff did not land in the field of play with 13 seconds left on the clock? Correct me if I am wrong, however, I have not heard Sean McDermott address everyone's question about why the ball was kicked deep in that situation.

In a situation like that, who normally makes the call as to whether the ball should be kicked deep or into the field of play, the head coach or the special teams coach? Do you think that perhaps McDermott really wanted the ball kicked into the field of play and somehow the message did not get to Tyler Bass?

Jay: McDermott has chosen to hide behind “execution” as the reason for the failure against the Chiefs, so you’re right that he hasn’t specifically addressed what happened on the kickoff. However, if you pay attention to everything that’s been said since that game, a clear picture is forming that the play was indeed screwed up.

Most recently, running back Taiwan Jones – one of the team’s key players on special teams – said on a podcast there was “miscommunication” on the kickoff. Specifically, Bill, I 100% believe moving on from Heath Farwell as special teams coordinator was directly related to the final kickoff. What other explanation would there be? The Bills generally had a pretty good season on special teams. Punter Matt Haack underwhelmed, but other than that, Farwell’s unit performed as one of the top 10 in the league. You don’t replace him unless there was a massive screwup – something that potentially cost the Bills a trip to the Super Bowl.

As for who makes the call, given what was on the line and how much time was left, everything goes through McDermott. That’s true in all situations, but there is no question he had final say on everything that happened at the end against Kansas City. The impression I get after the Bills moved on from Farwell is the plan was to kick high and short of the goal line, and that play call was not properly communicated.

Brian T. asks: In regards to Tremaine Edmunds, Zack Moss and Levi Wallace, do you feel the Bills should move on from them? Edmunds still has trouble reading plays and overshooting his gaps, putting himself out of the play. Moss is not great at really anything and was benched near the end of the season and Wallace is consistently picked on and gives up a ton of huge plays, with his latest being the Kansas City playoff game. I feel like they are the weak links to this team and upgrades are needed.

Jay: The Bills exercised Edmunds’ fifth-year option on his rookie contract last year, so he’ll be back for at least the 2022 season. Should the Bills be interested in a longer extension for him? I’d wait to see what he does this upcoming season. The Bills can always use the franchise tag to keep him around if he has a big year.

Moss is just two years into his rookie contract, so he has two seasons left on a cost-controlled deal. It doesn’t cost the Bills anything to challenge him this offseason and bring him to training camp. They can, and should, add competition in the running back room, and then see over the summer whether Moss deserves a spot.

As for Wallace, I’ve long thought he’s been a bit of a punching bag for Bills fans. He had a solid season for the team … right up until he didn’t. I’ll admit the end of the Kansas City game left a bad taste in my mouth. For the life of me, I can’t figure out what he was doing on the play that got the Chiefs into field-goal range. If Wallace really is going to command a contract in the range of $9 million per year, I’m more than fine letting him walk at that number. That makes cornerback the biggest offseason need.

Mikey P. asks: Jay, I am sure this is not an original question, but if you and Brandon Beane change desks for a day, what unrestricted free agents, both unrestricted and restricted, would you target first and how hard would you go to re-sign them? Also, do you think Ryan Fitzpatrick would be a viable (not just fun) option as a backup to Josh Allen? Press has indicated his fondness for this area and presumably team, but is there anything left in his tank? Also, your feelings as GM on Mitch Morse? I think his intangibles make up for whatever he may lack on the field. Agree?

Jay: Beane and I do change desks for a day! Every year, I write my annual “GM for a Day” column. As for the in-house free agents, I’d be most interested in bringing back Harrison Phillips and Isaiah McKenzie. I’d also offer a deal to both restricted free agents – Ryan Bates and Justin Zimmer – although that might come after choosing not to make a qualifying offer, which would then make them unrestricted free agents.

As for Fitzpatrick, I know it’s a Buffalo tradition to suggest bringing back old faces, but in this case … it makes sense. If Trubisky leaves for a chance to be a starter someplace else, the Bills need a backup they feel has the ability to keep the ship afloat for a few weeks. Also of importance at that position is a willingness to work with Allen in the meeting room and on the sideline during games and to fit into the locker room as a good teammate. There is little doubt Fitzpatrick can do those things. We know he’s smart enough to learn new offensive coordinator Ken Dorsey’s system – did you know Fitz went to Harvard? – and his teammates love him. If he wants to continue playing, Buffalo would be more than just a nice story – it would be a good fit for both sides.

Ron Jacobs asks: The 13-second debacle and overtime still leaves me chagrined. The Bills’ defense appeared to me, anyway, to not be in position to make plays and there were no blitzes. Leslie Frazier seems to get a pass in regard to any criticism.

Jay: This is one of those times where it being “McDermott’s defense” is beneficial for Frazier. As mentioned above, everything that happened in those final 13 seconds went through the head coach, so if Frazier called the plays, they went through them. I also wouldn’t rule out the possibility McDermott himself made the calls. In either case, how much are we going to put on the defensive coordinator? I get the need to assign “blame” for one of the worst collapses in franchise history. There is plenty of it to blame. Frazier shouldn’t get a free pass, but we also shouldn’t forget the Bills did accomplish a lot defensively in 2021. He’s a part of that success and the failure against the Chiefs.

Ken R. asks: Dawson Knox and Devin Singletary went to camps last summer to improve their speed and catching abilities. I think Knox improved this past season with getting open and catching the ball. He was helped by Travis Kelce. Singletary improved his speed and elusiveness. How many of the Bills go to special camps to work on their skills? Players in mind would be Greg Rousseau, Boogie Basham, A.J. Epenesa and Harrison Phillips.

Jay: In some form or fashion, every player does position-specific offseason training. There are “camps,” for every position, but often times it doesn’t have to be anything official. A lot of times, players will get together with either their college teammates or friends from around the league to work out. Typically, that means receivers working out with other receivers, defensive linemen training with other defensive linemen, etc. Gone are the days of players reporting to training camp to get in shape.

Even if the NFL plays for a bit more than five months a year, there is no doubt it’s at least an 11-month business (there’s a relative dead period from the middle of June through the middle of July, also known as vacation for me).

Ed Wagner asks: This isn’t exactly a Bills question, but here it is anyway: When I look at archival photos and videos of the Bills, and all other teams for that matter, it seems as if the shoulder pads were considerably bulkier than they are today. Are the modern pads better designed so as to offer the same, or better, protection than the old styles? Are players simply getting tougher, needing less padding? Are my eyes deceiving me?

Jay: Your eyes are just fine, Ed. Padding has gotten a lot smaller from the days of Dick Butkus and Ray Nitschke, who looked like they were carrying 2x4s on their shoulders. It’s true that technological advancements have played a big part in making equipment lighter, but perhaps even more than that, it’s a sign of the way the game is played today.

It’s rare for teams to grind games out on the ground. Instead, teams are throwing the ball more and more. Because of that, wide receivers and defensive backs want to be as fast and elusive as possible. That means trimming as much excess weight from their padding as possible. For what it’s worth, NFL players are required to wear only a helmet, shoulder pads, thigh pads and knee pads. The thigh and knee pads, however, can be particularly thin.

Thanks for all the questions, as always! You can reach the mailbag by email, jskurski@buffnews.com, or via Twitter, @JaySkurski.