Difficult decisions await whenever the Buffalo Sabres play their next game.
The New York Islanders are on the schedule Monday in KeyBank Center, but we were reminded this week that so much is uncertain as the NHL tries to complete an 82-game season amid the Covid-19 pandemic.
Three Sabres are in Covid-19 protocol – Vinnie Hinostroza, Zemgus Girgensons and Jeff Skinner – and there’s at least one player in Rochester unavailable because of a positive test. Sabres coach Don Granato will need reinforcements when the season resumes.
The situation isn’t entirely grim for the Sabres. They earned five of six points on a three-game road trip to Winnipeg, Minnesota and Pittsburgh. Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen and Malcolm Subban stabilized the club’s goaltending, and the young core is showing tangible signs of improvement.
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With a break in the schedule, it’s time for a mailbag featuring questions submitted by readers via email or Twitter.
Ranting Ron: Is Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen ready for a full-time job in the NHL?
Lance: It’s too soon to say. Luukkonen struggled with consistency in the American Hockey League and this is a small sample size in the NHL. Still, a .939 save percentage in games against Anaheim, the New York Rangers, Washington, Winnipeg and Minnesota is nothing to sneeze at. There's been a significant difference in the Sabres' play with Luukkonen in goal, and stability is needed to maximize player development this season.
The other side of this is Luukkonen's status as waivers-exempt. The Sabres want to get a longer look at Subban, and Dustin Tokarski could get claimed by another club. Goaltending depth is critical because of injuries and Covid-19. But Craig Anderson is making signs of progress, and I'd rather risk losing Tokarski on waivers than send Luukkonen to Rochester if he's shown he's ready for the NHL.
The Sabres will buy time by sending Tokarski on a conditioning assignment, but decision day will come sometime after the holiday break.
Kevin Theel: What are realistic expectations for Alex Tuch this season, and how many rookies do you expect to make the roster next season?
Lance: Temper expectations at the start. Tuch hasn’t played a game in six months, underwent shoulder surgery and is on a new team. The 25-year-old winger will need time to get acclimated to the speed of the game, which is far more difficult when stepping in now compared to the start of the season. That said, Tuch is a fast, skilled power forward who will immediately slot into the top six.
Krebs, whose first career NHL point was a primary assist on a Tuch goal with Vegas, told me this week, “He’s a stud. I don’t think Buffalo realizes what they’re getting in him. The year I was injured with Vegas, I got to watch him a lot and when he’s on his game he’s one of the best players in the NHL.”
Anthony Casale: Despite the Sabres’ development plan, shouldn’t Peyton Krebs or Mattias Samuelsson be in the NHL now given they have NHL experience?
Lance: It’s all about opportunity. If a center misses time, yes, we’ll likely see Krebs soon. He can help immediately and there would be minutes for him to play in Buffalo. But Krebs has been in Rochester for two reasons: his 5-on-5 game has been inconsistent and the Sabres had no interest in bringing him up only to play bottom-six minutes. Let Krebs develop with the talented core under coach Seth Appert, who has a similar approach to Granato's.
As for Samuelsson, he missed all of training camp and the start of the season. He’ll be up as soon as another defenseman is injured or traded. Casey Fitzgerald got the first call because he has a right shot and performed well in camp.
Andrew Semble: How should the Sabres handle the March 21 trade deadline?
Lance: Don’t trade all the veterans and take advantage of any team that needs to shed salary for cap purposes. You don’t want to rush any of the prospects to the NHL and proven players will be needed to provide the young core in Buffalo with a strong enough supporting cast during the season’s second half.
Trade Colin Miller and Will Butcher to create room for Fitzgerald and Samuelsson; deal Cody Eakin to a contender; and if a team offers a decent draft pick for a depth forward like Drake Caggiula, take it. But if the plan is to develop, don’t leave your top young players with a skeleton staff in the NHL. Keep the veterans who you want to retain for next season, specifically Mark Pysyk.
Michael Sully: What are your thoughts on the development of Rasmus Dahlin?
Lance: Dahlin’s development is back on track. The coaching changes slowed his progress, but remember, he’s learning the NHL game at a position where mistakes are magnified and with a franchise that’s been beset by turmoil. Dahlin is growing into his role as a top-pairing defenseman. Consistency is the next step. Give him time. The talent is off the charts and so is his work ethic. He has the total package. The Sabres need to address the lack of aggression that creeps into his defensive game, which seems to be the result of second-guessing himself or overthinking. Dahlin is at his best when he uses his instincts, which doesn’t come quickly for many young defensemen in the NHL.
@PlugOfficial4: How soon until defense prospect Ryan Johnson is with the Sabres?
Lance: Maybe in 2022-23. I expect the Sabres to sign Johnson at the conclusion of his season with the University of Minnesota, but the 20-year-old left-shot defenseman will need time to develop with the Amerks. The Sabres can be patient with Johnson and maybe give him games on his off side to develop some versatility.
Johnson will have to develop an identity at the pro level. He’s not going to quarterback a power play in Buffalo. Those roles will be taken by Dahlin, Owen Power or Jacob Bryson. So, Johnson will have to become a reliable, defensively sound presence who can still make an impact with the puck and perhaps kill penalties.
@Pandahandling: How is 2021 first-round draft choice Isak Rosen doing in Sweden?
Lance: Rosen, like most young players in the Swedish Hockey League, isn’t receiving consistent ice time with Leksands IF. He has two goals and four points in 26 games, but the speed and skill show up in flashes against older competition. It’s a necessary step in his development, and he’ll be better for it.
Rosen will represent Sweden at the IIHF World Junior Championship, providing the Sabres an opportunity to see how the 18-year-old winger fares against his peers.
@PassOffPads: Do you think Owen Power ends up being a top-pairing defenseman, which would allow Dahlin to thrive in a different role?
Lance: The Sabres will have two top defensemen worthy of first-pairing minutes. Dahlin is showing some nights that he’s already reached that level. Doing so every night is the next step. And yes, I think Power will bring out more in Dahlin’s game. Internal competition is beneficial for everyone and hey, it will help for another No. 1 pick to be in the room to take some pressure off Dahlin.
Power’s arrival will give Granato more options in building a lineup and how he deploys his defensemen, thus allowing either Power or Dahlin to face easier matchups.
@BlazinHansroy: Does Granato deserve credit for the improvement we’ve seen from Tage Thompson, Kyle Okposo and Jeff Skinner?
Lance: Absolutely. We’ve seen how Granato’s preferred style of play and system has brought out the best in every player on this roster, including Okposo and Eakin. The Sabres are much better defensively, leading to offense in transition. They have the puck more. Every forward will improve under that formula. Granato deserves all the credit for moving Thompson to center and in the way he’s communicated with every player on this roster.
Dylan Cozens’ game reached another level after a long one-on-one film session with Granato earlier this season. Granato is a passionate coach who loves to teach. He’s the right person for this job.
Peter Morris: Of the Sabres playing on one-year deals, who do you see returning to Buffalo next season?
Lance: Pysyk, Hinostroza and Subban. There should also be some interest in retaining Robert Hagg, but the depth at left-shot defense might lead him to seek opportunity elsewhere. Pysyk has been a perfect fit on the right side, providing the Sabres with a reliable presence on the breakout and in the defensive zone. Hinostroza, meanwhile, could be an excellent, versatile winger for the bottom six, and while it’s too soon to tell on Subban, this team wants the 28-year-old to show he can be part of a tandem in the short and long term. He’s a cost-effective option who fits perfectly in the dressing room.
Pysyk is the most likely to return, in my opinion, as he stated shortly after signing in July that he hopes his stay in Buffalo extends beyond 2021-22. It’s been a great match.
@EliTheProph: Are the Sabres in a better position to rebuild now compared to 2014-15?
Lance: There’s a much better plan in place than the one Tim Murray tried to execute. Unlike Murray, who tried to expedite the rebuild by adding ready-to-contend forwards without a history of leading or winning, current General Manager Kevyn Adams made some outstanding additions to create a better environment around this current young core.
Pysyk, Hagg, Hinostroza, Caggiula, Anderson, Tuch, and if we’re counting 2020, Eric Staal, have been outstanding role models. It also helps that Thompson, Cozens, Dahlin and Mittelstadt, among others, are willing to listen to what these veteran players have to say. That was an issue when previous management brought in Brian Gionta and Josh Gorges, only for their wisdom to be ignored.
And there's finally patience. It's unclear how long that will last given ownership's history of making sweeping changes, but it's impressive how the outlook has changed for the better since Jack Eichel spoke to reporters about his herniated disk last May.
Matt Weiner: Who are the B-tier prospects that Sabres fans can look forward to helping the team in the next handful of years?
Lance: Fitzgerald showed this week that he deserves to be on this list, as he’s an underrated right-shot defenseman. You should also track Linus Weissbach’s progress in Rochester when he is healthy, as well as winger Filip Cederqvist with Djurgardens in Sweden, Josh Bloom of the Saginaw Spirit and the four Russians drafted in July: Prokhor Poltapov, Aleksandr Kisakov, Stiven Sardarian and Nikita Novikov.
Keep an eye on Lukas Rousek if he’s able to return from ACL surgery in time to play for Rochester this season. A seventh-round pick in 2019, Rousek is a talented winger who had a breakout season in the Czech Republic in 2020-21.
