In an election year featuring history-making campaigns for Buffalo mayor and Erie County sheriff, the race to be Erie County comptroller could have become an afterthought.
But with two candidates who have name recognition and political and mass media experience, the campaign is becoming a case study in political science and targeted advertising.
Gaining the countywide seat in a year when Buffalo city voters are expected to turn out in higher-than-normal numbers takes careful and creative messaging – especially if you're Lynne Dixon, the endorsed Republican candidate.
"She’s got to get Democratic votes to win, especially if the turnout in the city is going to be higher than it normally is," said former Republican Party Chairman Robert Davis.
That's why, the day before early voting began on Oct. 23 many registered Democrats in Buffalo got a mailer that featured a smiling Kevin Hardwick below an image of the American flag and Donald Trump. It also showed the two men standing together beside the words "Support the Trump Agenda."
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The next day, a different mailer featuring Buffalo mayoral candidate India Walton – who identifies as a Democratic socialist – with Hardwick and a quote from her saying, "I'm a fan of Kevin Hardwick." That one went to voters who lean conservative.
Both pieces were sent by Dixon's campaign, which is sending a flood of direct mail pieces to likely voters from both parties, as well as senior citizens. Each piece has a tailored message for different voting demographics. The campaign is also sending text messages to voters.
"We’re targeting everyone," said Dixon campaign adviser Brian Fiume. "I think at the end of it, no one will be spared."
Both Republican candidate Lynne Dixon and Democratic County Legislator Kevin Hardwick have accused their opponents of making self-serving political deals that restrict their ability to be truly independent financial watchdogs.
Meanwhile, Hardwick's Democratic campaign has been running a get-to-know Kevin Hardwick TV commercial for the past month. The campaign released another testimonial television spot Tuesday and a radio ad featuring a coveted endorsement by former Erie County Comptroller Alfreda Slominski. An updated radio ad began airing Friday.
Though both candidates have raised similar amounts of money, based on the most recent finance disclosure reports, the Hardwick campaign is focused on broadcast media.
"They made a decision to go direct mail. We made a decision to go TV," said Hardwick, the 4th District county legislator.
Direct mail pieces are limited to those who typically vote by absentee ballot.
Broad, positive messaging is not a bad strategy, Davis said, in light of Hardwick's natural advantage with Democratic voters in Buffalo, where voters are expected to be motivated to cast ballots for the hotly contested mayor's race between Democratic primary winner India Walton and incumbent Byron Brown and the Erie County sheriff's race.
But the Dixon campaign's strategy also makes sense.
"There are over 335,000 more enrolled Democrats than Republicans," Davis said. "She has to overcome that enrollment disadvantage. Direct mail is very targeted and can be very effective."
Both sides have raised more than $100,000 so far, which isn't considered a lot of money for a countywide race, Davis said. But they are also getting party assistance with doing door-to-door campaigning, campaign literature drops and other messaging.
Given the fragmentation of broadcast, cable and streaming media, Fiume and Davis said, it can be difficult to assess the impact of TV messaging, which is why the Dixon campaign is putting the bulk of its money on mail.
Jessica Schuster, Hardwick's campaign manager, said suppressing the Democratic vote in the comptroller's race is part of the Dixon campaign's toolkit.
"I think their idea is to kind of confuse people in the city, keep people from voting for Kevin, which keeps the race a lot closer," she said.
Dixon's campaign sent out a mailer designed to look like it came from Hardwick's people, photoshopping an image of Hardwick to make it look as if he spoke at a Trump rally and featuring the phrase, "Make Erie County Great Again."
This is the back of the flyer from Lynne Dixon's campaign, made to appear as if it's a flyer from Kevin Hardwick's campaign for Erie County comptroller.
This is the original photo that was altered by the Lynne Dixon campaign mailer. Pictured behind Kevin Hardwick are three Democrats, from left, Assemblyman William Conrad, County Executive Mark Poloncarz and Town of Tonawanda Supervisor Joseph Emminger.
"The regular negative mail, we expected negative mail," Schuster said. "You don’t expect a campaign to pretend to be the other candidate. That is a new low."
The Hardwick campaign and Democratic headquarters spent last weekend trying to set the record straight with voters.
"If you stoop too low and run these campaigns with sock puppets and fake mailers, then I think you demean the office," Hardwick said.
Dixon said her negative campaign pieces reflect truths that the Republican-turned-Democratic legislator would rather ignore. She also said that she's been victimized for weeks by negative social media ads aligning her with Republican Comptroller Stefan Mychajliw and the fact that she has a high-paying job in his office as associate deputy comptroller.
"He’s been running these ads suggesting I’m something I’m not," she said. "I’ve been positive, and I will continue to be positive, but people need to know who my opponent truly is."
Erie County Legislator Kevin Hardwick, a Republican from the City of Tonawanda, is switching parties to the Democrats. Hardwick has developed a reputation as a maverick in the Legislature, where he has served since first winning election in 2009. He was one of few legislators willing to cross the aisle to vote on key bills, and frequently frustrated his
The Erie County Democratic Committee has paid for negative Dixon campaign ads for weeks, on Hardwick's behalf.
Dixon said she's never been a flip-flopper, unlike her opponent, and that the Comptroller's Office job was open, available and suited to her community outreach and communication talents.
Hardwick's campaign is investing more on building broad, positive name recognition. Aside from his radio endorsement ads, Hardwick also held a news conference Sunday with Democratic State Comptroller Thomas DiNapoli, who came into town to publicly endorse him. His campaign is also sending text messages to city Democrats to remind them to vote for the countywide Democratic slate, not just Buffalo mayor.
Dixon enjoys strong name recognition because she ran against County Executive Mark Poloncarz in 2019. She said she has a detailed campaign platform that she's proud to promote and fewer overall negatives, compared with Hardwick's wider ranging political history. Fiume said these campaign contrasts will continue showing up in mailboxes between now and Election Day.
