We’re almost there.
Not to the eradication of Covid-19 (spoiler alert: the virus isn’t going away), nor to a return of 2019-style normalcy, which is likely gone for good.
But we are close to the end of the Omicron variant’s surge through New York. That storm of December and January has become a drizzle now. But be sure of this: Spend enough time in it, and you can still get soaked.
In a crowded bar or restaurant today, there’s still a chance that “the Covid cloud is much denser,” said Dr. Thomas Russo, chief of infectious disease at the University at Buffalo’s Jacobs School of Medicine and Biomedical Sciences.
As of today, Western New York is still an area of high transmission. But that’s changing fast. Within a month, “there might be a whiff of virus, as opposed to a boatload of virus,” Russo said.
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In this installment of Pandemic Lessons, we dive into what it will take to push through these last few weeks of winter.
Where does Western New York stand today in terms of Covid-19 transmission?
Great, compared to last month. But if you compare our numbers today to those from one year ago, we look only decent. Consider:
• Western New York had an average of 266 Covid-19 cases on Feb. 17, down from 3,500-plus in early January.
• The region’s average number of cases per 100,000 people dropped from 21 to 19 over a three-day period last week. That same number one month ago was above 200 cases per day.
• One year ago at this time, Western New York averaged just under 400 cases per day.
• Western New York’s positive-test result rate dipped just below 5% last week. That’s good, relatively speaking, but still among the higher rates in the state. The numbers are considerably lower in New York City (1.5%, as of Feb. 17) and Long Island (2.7%), where most of the state's population is concentrated. The regions with a higher rate are Central New York (6.4%) and the sparsely populated North Country (7.5%).
All of this is reason to feel optimistic. Our numbers are declining steeply, but the graph hasn’t bottomed out yet, and for the moment, Western New York is still considered a high-transmission region.
When Gov. Kathy Hochul ended the statewide mask mandate for public places earlier this month, she noted that “numbers are coming down, and it’s time to adapt.” But, she added, that businesses can still choose to require masks, and people can and likely would still opt to wear one.
Russo, who, as an infectious diseases physician, is cautious by nature, is encouraging that kind of behavior.
“If we’re patient and we wait another four weeks and now the community burden of disease is in those low to moderate levels,” he said, “that’s when we can feel the most comfortable taking off masks.”
Once the Omicron wave bottoms out, and the weather starts warming and we spend more time outside, should we still keep masks around?
Keep a box of masks on hand, and a stash of them in your work bag, backpack, desk or wherever else you store necessities.
Right now, if you enter a school, health care setting or any variety of places that require masks by regulation or choice, you should be putting one on. You might also choose to wear one if you find yourself walking into an especially crowded place. Medical-grade masks like N-95s and KN-94s and KN-95s are highly effective, and surgical masks can do a decent job filtering out germs, too.
Remember, medical professionals were using these long before the rest of us.
“We’ve known this not just from Covid-19,” said University of Florida epidemiologist Cindy Prins, speaking late last year about the effectiveness of masks. “We’ve known this from SARS. We’ve known it from influenza. We’ve known it to be true from tuberculosis as well. Some kind of barrier helps prevent other people from getting infected.”
The smart use of masks can help us get through the next month. But beyond that, are we finally done with them? Or more importantly, done with Covid-19?
Likely not. One of the few widely agreed-upon points during this pandemic is Covid-19 is not going away.
“There’s no doubt we’re going to see more variants,” said Dr. John Sellick, an epidemiologist with Kaleida Health, Veterans Affairs and the University at Buffalo.
With relatively low vaccination rates in many countries, there’s not enough immunity in the world to stop Covid-19 from spreading. That’s how variants develop, particularly if spread is uncontrolled among a population, or happening in the body of an immunosuppressed patient whose body cannot stop it. “If it’s replicating,” Sellick said, “it’s mutating.”
Not all of those mutations will produce variants as problematic as Omicron. But some might, and if it happens, you’ll want and need masks.
What can we do to bolster our immune system and give ourselves the best chance to fend off viruses?
Be healthy, and remember that immunity is an invisible shield: It fits each person differently, and if yours is imperfect – if there are holes in the armor, so to speak – you won’t necessarily know it unless an infection slips through.
Vaccination remains the safest way of building Covid-19 immunity, and while the effectiveness wanes over time, the Pfizer and Moderna vaccines have largely kept people out of the hospital. Staying up to date on the initial shots and boosters gives you some control over what has otherwise been a largely uncontrollable situation.
If you’ve had Covid-19 and are relying on post-infection immunity, here are some rules to remember:
• A symptomatic infection is likely more protective than one that was asymptomatic.
• The immunity derived from natural infection is likely better and more robust if you had a recent case, rather than one a year or two ago. Chief among the reasons: The more recent the case, the more updated your immune system is in its ability to fend off current versions of SARS-Cov-2, like the Omicron variant.
• Post-infection immunity combined with vaccination is “unquestionably the best immunity in the world,” Russo said.
As we move out of Omicron and closer to an endemic phase, thinking beyond Covid-19 immunity is important, too. Losing weight, lowering blood pressure, eating nutrient-rich foods, getting enough vitamins (including C and D), getting enough sleep and exercising regularly can help you optimize your body’s ability to fight intruders.
“Taking care of chronic medical conditions that may also stress the immune system – such as diabetes – and keeping that under control … might be helpful in boosting the immune system,” said Dr. Isaac Weisfuse, a Cornell University medical epidemiologist.
The most mindful approach is also to limit how much you test your immune system, at least for the next few weeks until the spread dissipates.
“Even if you’ve got a pretty solid immune response, if you see a billion viral particles, that might overwhelm your existing immune status,” Russo said. “Whereas if you only see a hundred, it’ll be ready cleared.”
The viral storm is clearing, finally. It may come again – but we do know how to be prepared.
