President Trump said recently he's intent on "putting New York in play" in the November election.
Ron Rice of Amherst is planning an event aimed at helping him do that: a "boater and biker parade" in support of Trump on Labor Day weekend at Erie Basin Marina and North Tonawanda's Gratwick/Riverside Park.
“It’s not because I’m a Republican, because I also vote Democratic,” the 83-year-old Rice said Tuesday. “But I’ve always been an admirer of Trump. I’ve never donated to him or anything like that. I just think he’s better for our country than (Joe) Biden," the Democratic presidential candidate.
But amid this week's Republican National Convention, pundits say pro-Trump events like the one Rice is planning – which have been popping up around the country – bump up against a hard reality in the state where Trump spent most of his life. There are 3.29 million more Democrats in New York State than Republicans, meaning Trump's dream of competing in the state will likely remain just that.
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"It certainly would be a long shot" for Trump to win the state, said James E. Campbell, a political scientist at the University at Buffalo and a Republican.
To be sure, plenty of people in upstate New York in particular are just like Rice: passionate Trump supporters who are likely to jam the marina and the North Tonawanda park on Labor Day weekend, all flying Trump flags and sporting Make America Great Again hats.
But several political pros – some of them Republican – said New York lacks enough Trump fans to carry him to victory.
The dream
Trump revealed his plan to compete in New York in an interview in the New York Post on Aug. 13. He said a recent increase in violent crime and the state's high tax rate might allow him to put up a fight.
“Over the last six months what’s happened is insane. It’s insane. So we’re going to try very hard to win New York and that will be the first time – is that since Ronald Reagan, I guess? Since Ronald Reagan,” Trump said.
Trump is right about that: Reagan was the last Republican to win New York State, in his national landslide in 1984.
In the presidential elections since, New York turned an ever-deeper shade of blue until 2016, when Trump lost to Democrat Hillary Clinton by 22.5 points in the state. That came as a 5.7 point improvement on Republican Mitt Romney's performance in New York in his 2012 race against the Democratic president at the time, Barack Obama.
“We did well last time, but to get over 50 percent is hard for a Republican," Trump told the New York Post. "But we’re putting New York in play. We’re going to play it very strong and very hard. And we are going to try to win New York.”
To hear Trump supporters tell it, there are reasons for Trump to compete in New York even if he can't come close to winning the state.
State Republican Chairman Nicholas A. Langworthy said promoting Trump at the top of the GOP ticket in key congressional districts makes all kinds of sense. Already, he said, money and campaign workers are working in at least five congressional districts upstate and in the metropolitan suburbs that Republicans deem winnable if the party faithful come out to vote for the president.
“We may not have statewide media, but there are targeted efforts,” he said of coordination with the Trump campaign to help win congressional races. “Having their partnership in these districts is critical.”
Neither Langworthy nor Carl P. Paladino, the 2010 GOP gubernatorial candidate, went so far as to predict a Trump victory in New York. But Paladino – who predicted Trump will win nationally in a landslide – said support for the president runs deep in some parts of the state.
Paladino cited his own informal poll of “heart and soul” voters in his South Buffalo neighborhood who, he said, are “totally committed” to Trump.
Those voters sound a lot like Rice, who plans on gathering his Trump “navy” at Erie Basin Marina at 1 p.m. on Sept. 5. The group will then proceed outside the Buffalo Harbor break wall. The cyclists at Gratwick/Riverside Park will begin at noon and converge at a yet-to-be-determined downtown site.
Rice expects upward of 1,000 people at his Trump events.
“It’s going to be unique," Rice said. "This will be the only one with bikers and boaters for Trump on same day at same place. Some people give money. This is my contribution” to the Trump cause, he added.
The difficulty
The pro-Trump passion of those such as Paladino and Rice butt up against one hard fact. New York is a deep-blue state, largely because four of New York's five boroughs are astonishingly Democratic.
In Manhattan, the Bronx, Brooklyn and Queens, Democrats outnumber Republicans by a margin of eight to one. In numerical terms, Democrats have an advantage of more than 3 million voters in those four boroughs alone.
That's why one GOP consultant, who asked not to be identified, said Trump could compete in New York – "if you just take out four boroughs of New York."
And it's why another Republican campaign guru echoed Langworthy's thoughts, saying Trump's talk about competing in New York might really be aimed at ginning up Republican turnout in competitive House races.
"If he can somehow do a head fake and support these House races, and they were able to pick up four or five or six House seats in New York, it would be the biggest Republican coup in New York in years," that political pro said.
But head fakes don't win presidential elections – and the current polls indicate that Trump is on target to lose, both nationally and statewide. According to the RealClearPolitics polling average, he's behind by 7.6 points nationally and a whopping 26.3 points in New York.
Looking at the polling data as well as New York's electoral history, Peter Yacobucci, an associate professor of political science at SUNY Buffalo State, calculated Trump's odds of winning the state at about 1 in 100,000.
"There's almost no chance," Yacobucci said. "It would be similar to saying that tomorrow in Buffalo the temperature is going to reach 115 degrees. It's not realistic."
That didn't stop GOP sources in the state from saying their internal polling shows Trump within five points of Biden in New York.
Commenting on a tweet regarding that figure, polling guru Nate Silver of FiveThirtyEight.com offered some advice to the Biden campaign.
"If I were Biden I'd think it was positive ROI (return on investment) to drop like $100K on ads in Albany and Buffalo in the hopes that Trump would spend $5M in return," Silver tweeted last week.
