WASHINGTON – September will be the month that proves that Washington works, or that it doesn't.
And the stakes for Buffalo, and the nation, are immense.
Congress, led by a narrow and deeply divided Democratic majority, will return to the Capitol next week facing a host of deadlines and tough choices.
Those choices will determine, among many other things, when and whether seniors in Buffalo and nationwide will get dental, vision and hearing coverage under Medicare; whether lower- and middle-income families continue to enjoy a monthly check from an expanded Child Tax Credit; and whether homeowners will get a key federal tax break.
Those choices will determine whether at least some of Buffalo's lead pipes get removed as part of a major infrastructure package that would also remake other parts of the region and the nation.
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And those choices will determine whether congressional inaction on budget and spending matters will shut down the government again, and maybe even lead it to default on its debts.
It's a challenging to-do list, but one of the key players in getting all that done – Senate Majority Leader Charles E. Schumer – said Congress is well on its way to enacting the bulk of President Biden's "Build Back Better" agenda.
"Americans want to believe that they work hard, they'll be doing better 10 years from now than they're doing today," Schumer, a New York Democrat, told reporters last week. "And their kids will be doing still better than them. That dream is beginning to fade. We want to restore it in a bold and comprehensive way. And that's our mission. That's our goal."
But Schumer's arch-nemesis, Senate Republican Leader Mitch McConnell, characterizes the Democratic efforts differently.
"Make no mistake: This reckless taxing and spending spree is nothing like we've seen – nothing," he said on the Senate floor last month.
A big budget bill
Much of what Schumer and other Democrats want to accomplish will be in what's now a $3.5 trillion "human infrastructure" package that they want to pass through a legislative mechanism called reconciliation.
House committees last week started hammering out the details of that bill, which may include a number of provisions that would be especially important in Buffalo, such as:
• A Medicare expansion. The Democratic reconciliation bill will likely include a huge expansion of Medicare, the federal health care program for seniors, which would add dental, hearing and vision care to its list of benefits. Democrats still have to decide how quickly those benefits can be implemented – a decision that will affect how much the Medicare expansion costs.
• The Child Tax Credit. In July, many American families started receiving monthly government checks of up $300 for every child under age 17, thanks to an expanded Child Tax Credit that aims to cut childhood poverty in half. The reconciliation bill will determine whether that's just a one-year one-off, or whether the expanded credit – which is likely to have profound impacts in poor cities like Buffalo – is extended, probably through at least 2024.
• The full SALT deduction. The Republican Congress of 2017 trimmed the deduction homeowners can get for the state and local taxes they paid. Once unlimited, that deduction is now capped at $10,000, but many lawmakers from high-tax states – like Schumer – want that cap removed. But the early signs for this proposal aren't good. The House Ways and Means Committee released a draft tax proposal that aims to pay for much of the reconciliation bill -- but it omits any mention of restoring the full SALT deduction.
The $3.5 trillion question
All of the benefits in that $3.5 trillion bill hinge on whether Democrats can pass it – or whether they will have to shrink it in order to get the votes they need.
Reconciliation allows Democrats to pass massive budget-related bills in the Senate with a simple majority vote, rather than the 60-vote threshold that's needed for most legislation. But the Senate is split 50-50, meaning Vice President Kamala Harris breaks ties – and that any one rebellious Democratic senator can upend the party's plans.
Enter Sen. Joe Manchin of West Virginia, the Senate's most conservative Democrat.
"I, for one, won’t support a $3.5 trillion bill, or anywhere near that level of additional spending, without greater clarity about why Congress chooses to ignore the serious effects inflation and debt have on existing government programs," Manchin wrote in the Wall Street Journal earlier this month.
More progressive Democrats were not impressed.
"There is no substance to what he's saying," said Rep. Brian Higgins, a Buffalo Democrat, said of Manchin. "He's basically taking the Republican Party's talking points, and you know, if you're going to be that gullible, you're handing over control of the federal government to the party that has been very destructive relative to the economy of the nation."
Higgins contends the country can afford another $3.5 trillion, arguing that the bill would produce so much economic growth that it would dramatically boost tax revenues – which, he said, could also be boosted by trillions through stricter tax code enforcement.
Privately, though, other Democrats say that $3.5 trillion measure is likely to have to shrink so that Manchin won't torpedo it. The questions are: How will it shrink? And which of the bill's many programs and benefits will end up on the cutting room floor?
The infrastructure bill
The reconciliation bill is the biggest piece of Biden's agenda, but a bipartisan $1 trillion infrastructure package is a key element of it, too.
That bill, which passed the Senate last month, is a pared-down version of a bill that once promised to replace all of the nation's lead pipes and to set aside billions to replace highways that destroyed neighborhoods, such as Buffalo's Kensington Expressway.
The bill now looks like it would pay for replacing some but maybe not all of Buffalo's lead pipes while giving the city a chance at a share of a $1 billion pot for highway replacement, down from $20 billion in the original legislation.
The House will vote on that infrastructure package by Sept. 27, House Speaker Nancy Pelosi has said, but the politics of passing it will be tricky. Progressives are threatening to vote against the infrastructure bill if the larger reconciliation package isn't drawn up by then – and by doing so, they could kill the highly touted infrastructure effort.
Looming deadlines
The reconciliation and infrastructure bills are moving forward just as Congress confronts two daunting deadlines. Lawmakers must pass a bill funding the government for at least part of the fiscal year that begins Oct. 1, and according to Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen, they must raise the federal debt ceiling by mid-October so that the government can pay its bills.
Both of those moves will prove to be politically fraught for Democrats.
For one thing, they will be facing down Republicans who argue that Democrats, through the $2 trillion American Rescue Plan they passed this year to combat the economic effects of the Covid-19 pandemic, fueled higher prices.
"We have seen the impact of unchecked partisan spending already this year," Rep. Chris Jacobs, an Orchard Park Republican, said on Twitter earlier this summer. "Our nation and our grandchildren cannot afford more of it."
For another, Biden has asked that the spending package include $6.4 billion to help resettle Afghans who fled their home nation as American troops withdrew last month – a proposal that's likely to be hugely unpopular with anti-immigration Republicans.
Yet Congress must pass some sort of spending bill by Sept. 30, lest the government be shut down through congressional inaction for the 11th time in the past 42 years.
Then there's the equally fraught issue of raising the debt ceiling, which many Republicans may oppose.
Schumer seemed as worried about that possibility as he was optimistic that the rest of Biden's agenda will pass.
"It would be just the height of irresponsibility for Republicans to play games to take the debt limit hostage," he said. "That would be playing with the full faith and credit of the United States. And it would be a horrible act, a despicable act."
