NEW ORLEANS — Despite aggressive efforts to repair the New Orleans levee system after the destruction of Hurricane Katrina, it isn't clear yet whether it could withstand a hurricane with heavy storm surge this year, the head of the Army Corps of Engineers conceded Saturday.
Lt. Gen. Carl Strock said the agency was carefully tracking Tropical Storm Ernesto.
Ernesto could grow into a Category 3 hurricane by Thursday, menacing a broad swath of the Gulf Coast including New Orleans, the U.S. National Hurricane Center in Miami forecast. Category 3 hurricane Katrina struck the city a year ago Tuesday.
"It looks likely that it will hit (the U.S.), but it's way too soon to say where" or how much impact it would have, said John Cangialosi, a meteorologist with the hurricane center. "At this point, keep a close eye, anyone in the Gulf Coast, and just keep monitoring this."
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Standing in the hurricane's path, Jamaica, the Cayman Islands and Cuba issued hurricane watches as the storm's winds grew to 60 mph late Saturday. It was forecast to become a hurricane as early as this evening while it passes near Jamaica, Cangialosi said.
Strock was confident the Corps had done all it could to repair and reinforce 220 miles of levee walls, but he said many variables would determine whether the levees could withstand a major hurricane striking near New Orleans, as Katrina did Aug. 29, 2005.
"To pinpoint it to one thing and say 'yes' or 'no' is very difficult," said Strock.
Much would depend on where the hurricane made landfall, wind speed, rainfall and other factors, he said.
The biggest concern would be water levels so high that they could cascade over the levee walls, weakening them to the point of breaching.
Ernesto attracted the public's attention during a weekend of events marking the anniversary of Katrina. Driving rain soaked people gathered outside the Superdome for one observance, but the storms were not related to Ernesto.
Bari Landry, who lives in a New Orleans neighborhood heavily flooded by Katrina, said that after seeing Ernesto's possible storm track she decided to reserve a hotel room in Houston for Thursday through Saturday.
"There may be panic, but we know the drill," she said.
Gov. Kathleen Blanco said state officials were keeping an eye on Ernesto.
"It's critical we make the right call for the right reason," she said, cautioning that they want to ward off the chance of unnecessary evacuations.
Officials of the state, city and 14 parishes planned to talk by conference call, New Orleans Homeland Security chief Terry Ebbert said.
Mandatory evacuation in the parishes below New Orleans would kick in when the storm was 50 hours from the coast, Ebbert said. New Orleans would begin mandatory evacuation at the 40-hour mark.
New Orleans already has buses and trains under contract to evacuate people without the means to leave, he said.
Strock appeared with Blanco and Donald Powell, chairman of President Bush's Gulf Coast rebuilding office, on Saturday at a news conference to show off new protections since Katrina, including flood gates that can be dropped into the mouths of three large canals to reduce the effect of water surging out of Lake Ponchartrain.
However, some of the most substantial work planned on the levee system won't be done for the next couple of years.
On StarNet Get the latest news from the Gulf Coast and look back on the effects of Hurricane Katrina at go.azstarnet.com/katrina
"There may be panic, but we know the drill."
Bari Landry, New Orleans resident
