A great red wave is looming, but as the 2022 midterm elections enter a final two-month sprint, leading Republicans fear their party’s advantage may be slipping.
That's even as Democrats confront their president’s weak standing, deep voter pessimism and the weight of history.
The shifting political landscape follows a string of President Joe Biden’s legislative victories on climate, health care and gun violence, just as Donald Trump’s hand-picked candidates in electoral battlegrounds struggle to broaden their appeal.
But nothing has undermined the GOP’s momentum more than the Supreme Court’s decision to end abortion protections, which triggered a backlash even in the reddest of red states over the summer.
But a legal victory for former President Donald Trump lifts his standing as he works the campaign trail in support of handpicked candidates. A federal judge on Monday granted his request for a special master to review documents seized by the FBI from his Florida home and also temporarily halted the Justice Department’s own use of the records for investigative purposes.
People are also reading…
Biden also hit the campaign trail to boost Democrats as crunch time ahead of the midterm elections kicked off, visiting the swing states of Wisconsin and Pennsylvania to mark Labor Day with trade unionists he hopes will turnout in force for his party in November.
Hoping to erode the Biden reputation further, the top Republican on the House Oversight Committee criticized the Treasury Department for declining his request to provide banking Suspicious Activity Reports on Hunter Biden and others, according to a press statement.
Kentucky Rep. James Comer accused the department of trying to "run cover for the Biden family and possibly hide information about whether Joe Biden benefited financially from his family's business transactions."
The power of governors has been increasingly clear to Americans as states take over policies once set by the federal government.
In November, 36 states will hold gubernatorial elections that, while often less expensive than Senate races, are likely to yield more immediate impacts on the political landscape and could provide a launching pad for candidates with even higher aspirations -- like Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis.
Heading into the general election season, Republicans control 20 of the contested governor's seats to Democrats' 16. But many of the key battleground contests feature Democratic incumbents, elected during the 2018 "blue wave," trying to win a second term. Read more about the key races this fall:
Finally, some Democrats seem more worried about 2024 elections than the midterms. Election deniers have won Republican primaries across the country -- including in states that will be central to the 2024 presidential election.
Secretaries of state -- the top elections officials in their states -- were at the forefront of pushing back against false claims of electoral fraud in 2020. While the unexpected new prominence has helped secretary of state candidates pull in more money and attention this cycle, some Democrats worry the party is not focused enough on these contests and and the implications for the 2024 presidential election if candidates who win these posts again prove central to state election outcomes. Read a CNN analysis:
These 9 key Senate matchups are set
Pennsylvania
Dr. Mehmet Oz (Republican) vs. John Fetterman (Democrat)
This race is to fill the seat of retiring Republican Sen. Pat Toomey.
Dr. Mehmet Oz has won Pennsylvania's Republican U.S. Senate primary after a dayslong recount. The celebrity heart surgeon will face Democratic Lt. Gov. John Fetterman in November. Fetterman is off the campaign trail while he recovers from a stroke and a serious heart condition. Democrats view this race, a contest to replace retiring two-term Republican Sen. Pat Toomey, as perhaps their best opportunity to pick up a seat in the battle for the Senate. Fetterman ads are railing against outsourced jobs, closed factories, rising costs and low wages, saying “those decisions were made for us by people that don't know us.” National Republicans, meanwhile, are trying to tie Fetterman to his party's most liberal members and to the Biden administration.
Georgia
Sen. Raphael Warnock (Democrat) vs. Herschel Walker (Republican)
Georgia still struggles with its history of slavery, segregation and racial injustice, but voters in the Deep South state have for the first time selected two Black candidates to represent the major parties in a U.S. Senate race. And it's Black voters who could prove decisive to the election outcome in November. Football legend Herschel Walker will represent the Republican Party in its efforts to unseat Democratic Sen. Raphael Warnock after both men handily defeated primary challengers last week. Black candidates from the two parties have competed for Senate at other times in the recent past in other states, but the contest between Walker and Warnock is expected to be significantly more intense.
Nevada
Sen. Catherine Cortez Masto (Democrat) vs. Adam Laxalt (Republican)
Adam Laxalt, a former state attorney general who has embraced lies about the 2020 election, won the Republican nomination for a pivotal Nevada Senate seat, setting up what will likely be a fierce and costly race against incumbent Catherine Cortez Masto, one of the most endangered Democrats in an evenly divided Senate. Republicans see the race as their best opportunity to flip a Senate seat and regain the majority, but are also watching for longer-term signals that Nevada is swinging back in their direction after rejecting every GOP presidential candidate since 2004.
North Carolina
Ted Budd (Republican) vs. Cheri Beasley (Democrat)
This race is to fill the seat of retiring Republican Sen. Richard Burr.
U.S. Rep. Ted Budd and former state Supreme Court Chief Justice Cheri Beasley will compete in matchup that should again test former President Donald Trump's influence in North Carolina. Budd’s primary win was a victory for Trump, who elevated the little-known congressman with a surprise endorsement nearly a year ago. Beasley would be North Carolina’s first Black senator if elected in the Republican-leaning state. In 2020, she lost a statewide election to remain chief justice by just 400 votes.
Ohio
J.D. Vance (Republican) vs. Tim Ryan (Democrat)
This race is to fill the seat of retiring Republican Sen. Rob Portman.
"Hillbilly Elegy" author J.D. Vance, who received Trump's backing in mid-April, won the Republican nomination on May 3. Democratic Rep. Tim Ryan easily won his party's nomination but starts at a disadvantage in this reddening state. Vance and Ryan are vying to fill the seat left by retiring Republican Sen. Rob Portman.
Colorado
Sen. Michael Bennet (Democrat) vs. Joe O'Dea (Republican)
Wisconsin
Sen. Ron Johnson (Republican) vs. Mandela Barnes (Democrat)
Lt. Gov. Mandela Barnes won the Democratic nomination to face Republican Sen. Ron Johnson, one of Trump’s most vocal supporters. The matchup is among the last to be set before the November general election, when control of the currently 50-50 split Senate is up for grabs, and Democrats see Wisconsin as one of their best opportunities to flip a seat.
Arizona
Sen. Mark Kelly (Democrat) vs. Blake Masters (Republican)
Trump-backed Blake Masters emerged as the Republican nominee. The 35-year-old first-time candidate has spent most of his career working for billionaire Peter Thiel, who is bankrolling his campaign. Masters emphasized cultural grievances that animate the right, including critical race theory and allegations of big tech censorship. Masters will take on Democratic Sen. Mark Kelly in the fall.
Florida
Sen. Marco Rubio (Republican) vs. Val Demings (Democrat)
U.S. Rep. Val Demings easily won the Democratic nomination to challenge Republican Sen. Marco Rubio this fall. Demings, a former police chief and a prodigious political fundraiser, has a chance to become Florida’s first Black female senator. While some Democrats are hopeful that Demings can unseat Rubio, the party's national leadership is prioritizing competitive Senate contests in other states, including neighboring Georgia, Arizona and Pennsylvania.
