NEW YORK — The opening phase of the Republican presidential primary has largely centered on the escalating collision between former President Donald Trump and Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis.
A new wave of GOP White House hopefuls will begin entering the 2024 race as soon as this week after a monthslong lull. They include former Arkansas Gov. Asa Hutchinson, who will formally launch his campaign Wednesday.
Former Vice President Mike Pence said he will finalize his plans in “weeks, not months.” He has kept a busy schedule of early state visits and policy speeches as aides discussed details of an announcement including dates as early as May, but more likely in June. South Carolina Sen. Tim Scott, who has formed a presidential exploratory committee, is expected to join the race in a similar time frame.
Former New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie met with former aides and returned to New Hampshire this past week, where he said at a town hall in the first-in-the-nation primary state, “Tonight is the beginning of the case against Donald Trump.” Christie has said he will make a decision “in the next couple of weeks.”
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The contenders will enter the race at a critical moment as DeSantis, who hasn’t officially announced a campaign, struggled to live up to sky-high expectations among some early backers. He has been losing support to Trump among elected Republicans in his own state and is prompting concern among some in the party that his positions on abortion and LGBTQ rights, among other issues, could render him unelectable in a general election.
Trump in recent weeks solidified his status as the early front-runner, even after he was indicted in New York. He remains the subject of intensifying investigations in Atlanta and Washington and persistent concerns about his electability after losing to Democrat Joe Biden in 2020.
Would-be rivals hope that dynamic leaves an opening for one of the fresh entrants to emerge as an alternative to the current polling leaders.
The rivalry between Trump and DeSantis has turned uglier by the day, with political groups supporting both men already spending millions on attack ads. Some strategists hope the two will attack each other so viciously, they will turn off voters, who will search for an alternative.
“It’s not uncommon for a third candidate who’s not involved in the kerfuffle to rise,” said Bryan Lanza, a former Trump adviser, who has been informally advising Larry Elder, the conservative talk radio host who announced his campaign Thursday.
Lanza said he expects a robust race to be the “leader of the second tier” of candidates currently polling at under 10%.
Beyond Trump and Elder, the current field of official GOP presidential candidates includes Trump’s U.N. ambassador, former South Carolina Gov. Nikki Haley, and tech entrepreneur Vivek Ramaswamy. Both announced their bids in February.
Biden is expected to announce his 2024 campaign as soon as this coming week. He faces minimal competition for the Democratic nomination.
Among Republicans, the early debates that are slated to begin this summer could be crucial in determining who builds momentum.
Candidates may need to cement their planning soon, even if they would prefer to wait longer. The Republican National Committee scheduled the first debate for August and is expected to set strict benchmarks that candidates must satisfy to participate, including amassing tens of thousands of individual donors.
“That takes a little time to do and so if you’re gong to be serious about this — and I think you have to be on the stage to be serious about it — then you probably have to make the decision by May,” Christie said this past week in an interview with the media outlet Semafor.
Candidates-in-waiting have been biding their time, visiting early voting states, delivering speeches and wooing donors as they assess the field. Pence, for instance, was in California this past week meeting with potential backers and will host another donor retreat for his nonprofit group in May.
“If I was in their shoes, I would wait as long as possible,” said former Wisconsin Gov. Scott Walker, who was considered an early favorite for the Republican nomination when he ran against Trump in 2016. He remembers realizing in those early weeks how Trump upended the race.
“There was no way around it then,” he said. “And right now, anybody who thinks they’re somehow going to go in and change that is missing the reality.”
There are still plenty of unknown dynamics, including whether governors such as Kristi Noem of South Dakota or Chris Sununu of New Hampshire will enter the contest. Texas Sen. Ted Cruz and Virginia Gov. Glenn Youngkin have not ruled out running.
Mike DuHaime, a Republican strategist and longtime Christie adviser, believes that Trump is the favorite but nonetheless beatable. He cautioned that races are complicated, with unexpected outcomes.
“I do think that DeSantis is right now firmly the alternative to Trump, but I don’t know if it stays that way. There’s still way too long to go,” he said, arguing that a debate moment or news story could change the trajectory.
“Somebody’s just got to get momentum,” he said. “It’s just so wide open even with Trump being the prohibitive favorite.”
