Local opinion: Stock market euphoric over artificial intelligence

Here we are in May of 2026. Without the approval of Congress, President Trump has started a major war against Iran. In retaliation, Iran has bombed half a dozen Middle Eastern countries and blockaded the Strait of Hormuz, which has closed the shipping route for 20% of the world’s oil and other commodities critical to the U.S. and world economies, such as agricultural fertilizer. U.S. courts have begun to strike down major tariffs imposed on U.S. foreign enemies and allies alike, again because they were imposed without the approval of Congress, but the U.S. and world economies are still reeling from the price inflation and supply disruptions they caused.

In the face of all this economic disruption, the U.S. stock markets continue setting record highs. Is Wall Street crazy? A financial commentator on CNBC summed up the consensus of Wall Street analysts by saying, “The stock market is euphoric over the prospects for artificial intelligence.” Consider for a moment what this means.

According to data from the Federal Reserve, the wealthiest 1% of Americans owns 50% of all traded stocks, and the wealthiest 10% owns 87% of stocks. This small, wealthy minority is “euphoric” about the expectation that AI is poised to put millions of Americans out of work. If AI fulfills its promise, AI systems will replace millions of U.S. workers. This will increase the “productivity” (output and revenue per employee) of U.S. corporations and reduce their costs. This will drive up their stock prices and increase the wealth of their stockholders.

The last time something similar happened was when hundreds of U.S. factories were closed and moved to places like China and Mexico. A high percentage of Americans who lost their jobs never found new ones. Those who did mainly found jobs in the service industry, paying at least 30% less than their old factory jobs. U.S. life expectancy began to fall, and sociologists coined a new phrase, “deaths of despair,” to describe the deaths of displaced factory workers resulting from alcohol abuse, opioid addiction and suicide.

Seventy percent of the U.S. economy consists of American consumers buying consumer goods. As more Americans are put out of work or have their incomes cut by 30% or more, they are going to have much less money to buy those consumer goods and prop up the U.S. economy.

Here in Tucson and in communities all across the U.S., we are wrestling with the problems of homelessness and housing affordability. The discussion has been dominated by only one of the two major factors driving it. The factor being discussed is how much it costs to buy or rent a house or apartment. The factor being ignored is how much money the population has to make payments on mortgages or rent. With the U.S. facing a major new wave of unemployment and reduced family earnings, homelessness figures to get worse, not better.

I had not yet been born when the Great Depression convinced voters that the government and the economy were serving only the wealthy, and Franklin D. Roosevelt was elected president and succeeded in giving average Americans a New Deal. I pray that it will not take a new depression, but it looks like nothing less than a 21st-century New Deal can save a new wave of Americans from being left behind.