It would be very costly for the Buffalo Bills to move up into the first half of the first round of the 2022 NFL draft.
Buffalo likely would have to give up both its second- and third-round picks this year to move up 10 to 12 spots from No. 25 overall. Or it could cost the Bills both their third-rounder and a first-round pick in next year’s draft.
That’s what moves up the first round of the draft board by other teams in recent years show.
The merits of moving up for a position other than a quarterback are questionable. Still, fans love to consider the possibility of adding one of the elite players available in any draft class.
“Having been in that draft room, not just as a GM but being in the draft room for 20 years, 8 to 12 is always a good spot to look for trades, and then right around that 18 or 19 to 22 is always a hot spot where people like to move,” said former Tampa Bay General Manager Mark Dominik, now a Sirius XM NFL analyst. “Eight to 12 is because you’ve only got so many players you think are top, top players, so you want to go get one. You feel like that’s one of those elite guys, so let’s go get him. Then 18 to 22 is because people are sitting near the end of the first round going, ‘Hmmm, you know what? That’s my last guy’" with a first-round grade.
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One reason the Bills might want to climb up the board is to get one of the top two cornerbacks – Louisiana State’s Derek Stingley Jr. or Cincinnati’s Sauce Gardner. Some mock drafts have both going in the top 10. ESPN’s latest mock draft has Stingley lasting to No. 12. A handful of mock drafts have Stingley available at No. 14 or No. 15.
Let’s say the Bills wanted to move up 13 spots, to No. 12. One of the most popular draft value charts was created by writer Rich Hill of the website Pats Pulpit, and it’s believed to be reasonably close to the charts NFL teams utilize.
The No. 12 pick is worth 347 points. The Bills’ 25th pick is worth 230 points, a difference of 117. Buffalo’s second-round pick (No. 57) is worth 96, and the third-rounder (No. 89) is worth 46. Add up each of the Bills’ first three picks and the total is 372. Maybe a team would like that offer. But it’s a lot to give up.
“I think the depth of this class is Day 2,” said ESPN analyst Todd McShay.
No matter which draft value chart is used, the equation essentially is the same. The Jimmy Johnson chart, created in the 1990s, works out the same. It would take Nos. 25, 57 and 89 to get the No. 12 or No. 13 pick.
Past deals show there’s often some inflation at work to move up to the top half of the draft. In 2021, the New York Jets moved up from 23rd to 14th – a pick worth 325 points – in a trade with Minnesota. It cost the Jets 362 points on the draft chart.
In 2017, Kansas City moved up from No. 27 to No. 10 in a trade with the Bills. It cost the Chiefs 371.5 points. The 10th pick was worth 369. Buffalo got No. 27, No. 91 and a first-round pick in 2018 in return. NFL teams generally devalue picks acquired in future years to half their point total. So the 27th pick in 2018 was worth 112.5 points in the deal.
Kansas City, of course, used that pick to draft Patrick Mahomes. Buffalo used the 2018 first-rounder as part of a package to move up the next year to draft Josh Allen.
The same points scenario would hold true if the Bills wanted to throw next year’s No. 1 pick into a package. Any team trading with the Bills would presume that 2023 pick is going to be in the back end of the first round. Thus, it would be worth about 110 points in any trade package this year.
What about a small move up the board? New England has the No. 21 overall pick. The Patriots have some of the same potential needs in the first round of the draft as Buffalo, including cornerback, wide receiver and linebacker.
Pittsburgh holds the No. 20 selection, which is worth 269 points, 39 more than the Bills’ 25th pick.
The Bills’ third-rounder is worth 46. That’s probably what it would cost to move up only five spots in the first round. The value of picks on the third day of the draft drop precipitously. The Bills’ fourth rounder (No. 130) is worth 21, the fifth-rounder (No. 168) is worth 8, and the sixth-rounders (Nos. 185 and 203) are worth only 6 and 5 points, respectively.
Conventional wisdom holds it is generally better to move down than to move up.
The rationale is simple: It’s impossible to guarantee the success of any individual picks, so the more picks one acquires, the better the odds some will turn into good players. Furthermore, draft picks are relatively cheap labor. Every player on their first NFL contract who is starting is saving the team significant money.
“I think there is a lot of logic behind trying to get as many bites at the apple as you can,” said NFL Network analyst Daniel Jeremiah.
What can the Bills gain by moving down? Kansas City has back-to-back late first-round picks at Nos. 29 and 30. The 25th pick is worth 34 more points than No. 30. The Bills potentially could add another third-round pick in a trade down with the Chiefs. (Kansas City’s No. 94 pick in the third round is worth 41 points.)
