Remember when Josh Allen’s accuracy on deep passes was a problem? Nobody talks about it anymore because those days are long gone.
The Buffalo Bills’ quarterback skewered the New York Jets’ defense with long balls Sunday. Allen was 5 of 7 for 208 yards on passes that traveled 20 or more yards downfield.
For the season, Allen is completing 51% of his deep passes – 23 of 45, according to Buffalo News charting. That’s second best in the NFL among the 24 starting quarterbacks with more than 25 deep pass attempts, according to Pro Football Focus. Only Arizona’s Kyler Murray is better, at 61%. It’s also the best rate of Allen’s four-year career.
Allen leads the NFL in passing yards on deep balls with 821 yards. He has four TD passes and one interception on passes 20-plus yards downfield.
Way back in 2019, Allen ranked 29th among NFL starters in deep accuracy, at 25.7%, according to News charts. It was 30.7% if you factored in drops and throwaways.
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But Allen took a great leap forward last season. His completion rate improved to 47.2%, sixth among NFL starters who had at least 50 deep attempts. It also was the biggest improvement by any QB in the league last year.
The Jets’ defense has relied on a lot of man-to-man coverage and single-high safety looks – Cover 3 – this season. New York didn’t change its approach in the 45-17 Bills victory at MetLife Stadium.
Allen burned the Jets on deep passes of 57 and 43 yards to Stefon Diggs and 49 yards to Gabriel Davis. Each were single-high safety coverages. A 36-yard pass to Davis, a 23-yarder to Diggs and a 16-yarder to Emmanuel Sanders were with single-high safeties, too.
“Even when we were going single high, certain defenses were still designed to make sure they weren’t able to get it to Diggs,” said Jets head coach Robert Saleh. “They were working the other side. You’re scooting up to try to take care of the run game, and they are throwing go balls and doing a good job. We have to win one-on-ones in those situations.”
A lot of defenses this season have been leaning on two-deep coverages to try to prevent Diggs from getting deep. There probably was not any scheme the Jets could have used that would have matched up well against the Bills. The Jets have a fleet of inexperienced cornerbacks and have had a string of injuries at the safety position. They lost their best defensive back, safety Marcus Maye, to a season-ending injury last week.
“Our corners have been doing a great job,” Saleh said. “Again, credit to those guys, Diggs and Emmanuel Sanders, who are pretty good receivers. They got the better of it today.”
The Bills did a great job of making the Jets respect the run by throwing on first-down with play-action passes. Allen was 8 of 11 for 233 yards on first-down, play-action passes, according to News charts. Six of those completions were with “big personnel” on the field – two backs, two tight ends or an extra offensive lineman.
The Jets played man coverage with one safety deep or 3-deep coverage on 21 of 30 dropbacks, according to ESPN. Sunday’s game probably will discourage any team without a talented cornerback cast to try to execute that kind of scheme.
“The quarterback just made plays today and did a really nice job,” Saleh said.
Allen is on pace for 1,550 passing yards on deep balls this season. In 2020, he had 952 passing yards on 20-plus passes, which ranked seventh in the league. Green Bay’s Aaron Rodgers led the NFL in deep passing yards, at 1,242 in 16 games, according to Pro Football Focus. Allen had just 589 yards on deep passing in 2019.
