In terms of overall probabilities on a broad scale, nothing about this storm is a “maybe” other than precise location and timing of the heaviest lake snow. In the big picture, the storm is coming, and when it arrives it will be the most crippling blizzard we’ve suffered since at least the Blizzard of ’85.
This is the overall Buffalo NWS perspective on strongest impacts and heaviest snow totals, not including the lakeshore flooding. Keep in mind the precise range of snow totals is much less important than in recent lake effect storms, because only a few inches with winds of this magnitude will produce true blizzard conditions.
Where heavier amounts accumulate (just try accurately measuring in this wind), drifts are likely to range up to 5 feet and, in a few spots, higher than that. Visibility will frequently drop to zero in blowing snow. With wind chill in the minus teens, to become lost in a storm of this magnitude on some rural roads may result in the worst possible outcome.
People are also reading…
Then, there is the lakeshore flooding. Thursday’s east-southeast wind in the afternoon and evening will help push more of Lake Erie’s waters west. Once the powerful cold front passes through early Friday, winds will veer abruptly southwest, pushing those higher waters back toward our end of the lake. That will produce a seiche, or sudden rise in water levels from Chautauqua County to the upper Niagara River.
For lakeshore residents, these are the words of former Buffalo NWS meteorologist-in-charge Tom Niziol: “This is a classic setup for a very significant wind-driven seiche up Lake Erie. Winds start out from the SE, pushing water back toward Toledo. Then the front comes through Friday morning, winds shift to southwest and quickly build to 60kt gusts. That will take a WALL of water and send it up the lake toward Buffalo, where Long Point Ontario provides an additional narrowing of the shorelines and it ends up slamming into the northeast end of the Lake from Dunkirk over to Port Dover, etc. on the Canadian shore. I believe we will see MAJOR flooding with a rise to 11 feet or more in lake levels. Most I ever saw was 12 ft. in my career. That combined with waves 15-20ft. will cause a lot of damage.”
With the flash freeze upon us Friday morning, travel along Route 5 will quickly become treacherous by late morning when temperatures fall below freezing. A blizzard warning is in effect for Erie, Niagara, Orleans and Genesee counties from 7 a.m. Friday to 7 a.m. Christmas. A winter storm warning is in effect for Wyoming, Chautauqua, and Cattaraugus Counties from 7 a.m. Friday until 1 a.m. Monday.
The actual front will cross the region from southwest to northeast, reaching Buffalo around 8 a.m.
Rain showers will transition to snow showers, but the cold air will not deepen enough to produce organized lake snow right at the outset. By noon into the early afternoon, heavier lake snow will focus from Buffalo to the northeast, impacting some areas of the Northtowns, with less snow in the Southtowns. Southwest winds will increase to 30-50 mph, with peak gusts close to 60 mph by 1 p.m.
By 7 p.m., the heaviest lake snow will continue to pound the metro area and nearby suburbs with frequent whiteouts and major drifting starting to develop after 4-7 inches of snow.
Peak gusts will continue to reach or exceed 60 mph, with some gusts to 70 mph possible. Lakeshore flooding will continue unabated, temperatures will be in the mid-to-upper teens, and blowing snow will occur wherever snow has fallen. Wind damage will become more widespread, and power outages will multiply.
Saturday morning, heavy to intense lake snow is still likely in and near the metro area, with impossible travel within the band. Some gusts will still be exceeding 60 mph early in the day, and lakeshore flooding will continue. Airport operations are sure to be impacted, at least at times. The Chicago gametime forecast is unchanged and dangerously cold, with a wind chill of 25 to occasionally 35 below.
As we arrive at 7 p.m. Christmas Eve, peak gusts should be subsiding to 30-40 mph, but travel will still be impossible in and near the band. Temperatures will be in the teens, and the wind chill will range from -5 to -12.
On Christmas morning, the organized lake snow will be farther south, probably below the Southtowns and into the Southern Tier, with winds having become more westerly. The benign-looking white Christmas will be masked by harsh conditions and continued blowing snow across the region, producing more severe drifting and whiteouts.
The lake snow will continue across hilly terrain throughout Christmas day, with dangerous travel even to the north due to gusty winds and blowing snow. With some reluctance, I’ll display modeled snow totals by Monday morning, even though exact amounts will be hard to measure.
Some of the greatest concern will be the number and duration of power outages in such harsh cold with subzero wind chills. Although the wind chill index is designed to measure heat loss from exposed human skin, the wind takes a major toll on house roofs, walls, windows and doors, extracting far more heat more rapidly than would be the case with a light wind.
Important pre-storm preparations and precautions
This is an inclusive list for urban and rural residents of what needs to be prepared and done prior to the storm’s arrival Friday. Many of us, including me, probably can’t mark off every item on this excellent list, but the list is a starting point to aid in being safe.
To finish on a more optimistic note, I remind you this brutal storm and its cold will give way to a markedly milder pattern in the final days of the month.
