PHOENIX - If Proposition 100 fails, University of Arizona students could see tuition increase for the fourth time in two years.
That's just one of three pictures, all of them ugly, that UA President Robert Shelton painted for the Arizona Board of Regents on Saturday.
The regents had asked Shelton and the other two university presidents to outline their contingency plans in broad terms .
"Should Prop. 100 fail, we believe it's incumbent upon the Board of Regents to communicate with the public what that scenario looks like, what choice they are making," regent Fred DuVal said at the Saturday meeting.
While the UA wouldn't receive any money from the proposed 1-cent sales-tax increase, the state is planning to cut the university system's budget by $107 million if the ballot measure fails. The UA's share would be $41.4 million, which would come on top of about $100 million in state cuts in the past two years.
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Shelton described three broad options for managing a cut that size.
• He could cut staff and instructor jobs, but he would have to cut 500 jobs to arrive at just half of the needed dollar amount, he said.
• He could cut financial aid, a $115 million fund that was kept off the table during previous budget cuts, but that would hurt the UA's ability to attract the best and most diverse students, Shelton said.
Additionally, a $2 million cut to the regents' central office would be taken out of a $10 million financial aid fund, impacting 850 to 1,000 needy students statewide.
• The third option - "we are extremely reluctant to even say" - would be a tuition increase, he said. The UA would have to charge students an additional $900 to net half of the needed cuts, Shelton said.
In March the regents approved a 10-20 percent increase in UA tuition and fees for next school year.
DuVal painted a picture of a university system facing stark choices:
"In the last two years the system has absorbed $230 million in cuts; 2,900 positions have been eliminated; 182 colleges, schools and programs have been either eliminated or dramatically altered; we've applied a 2.75 percent across-the-board pay cut on top of furloughs that have already existed - so anybody who would believe that the universities have not already been dramatically affected by budget cuts hasn't heard that story," he said.
In other action
• The university presidents' plans to reduce state salary spending by 2.75 percent were approved. The UA plan includes 1-3 furlough days for about half of the employees.
• The regents approved Arizona State University's exit from the UA College of Medicine-Phoenix. The move will save the financially stressed ASU $3.5 million a year.
more inside
• See capsulized effects that would result from Prop.100 outcome. Page A5
• UA Bioscience Park set for apartments deal. Page B5
STATE BUDGET CUTS
If you vote 'YES'
UA says: The UA won't get any of the new tax money, but it might get a break from budget cuts. After $100 million in state budget cuts in two years, or 25 percent of the UA budget, the state budget doesn't include any further cuts to the university system for next year.
If you vote 'NO'
UA says: The state would cut the UA by a "devastating" $41.4 million, UA President Robert Shelton said.
Another view: University budget cuts seem inevitable, but a tax hike would hurt taxpayers and the private sector of the economy, said Tom Jenney, Arizona Director for Americans for Prosperity.
Federal Stimulus Money
If you vote 'YES'
UA says: The UA expects to receive $24.3 million in federal stimulus money from the state, which it will use to pay teachers and advisers.
If you vote 'NO'
UA says: The stimulus dollars came with the stipulation that the state maintain its spending for education. Further cuts would scrape past that line. The governor intends to apply for a waiver to keep the money, but no waiver applications have been approved.
Another view: "Spending money to spend money" is part of the state budget problem. The state has to curb spending across the board and start living within its means, said state Sen. Frank Antenori, R-Tucson.
Jobs
If you vote 'YES'
UA says: The UA was ordered by the regents to cut 2.75 percent of state salary spending, resulting in 1 to 3 furlough days next year for about half of UA employees.
If you vote 'NO'
UA says: Up to 500 jobs will be cut. The UA already has laid off more than 600 workers in the past two years of state budget cuts. There could be more furloughs in addition to those already planned.
Another view: While it's no consolation to those who will lose their jobs, the jobs losses will be much smaller than the private-sector losses the state would see if Prop. 100 were to pass, Jenney said.
College costs
If you vote 'YES'
UA says: There would still be tuition increases. That federal stimulus money dries up after next year and the UA will replace those funds with tuition revenue.
If you vote 'NO'
UA says: Tuition would likely go up, for the fourth time in two years.
It might come in the form of another economic crisis surcharge. The Arizona Board of Regents approved that kind of surcharge at $766 for in-state students and $966 for out-of-state students this year, and it was rolled into tuition as a permanent tuition increase for next year.
The UA also could cut student financial aid, a $115 million pot of money that was not on the table for the previous cuts.
Contact reporter Becky Pallack at bpallack@azstarnet.com or 807-8012.
The Tax Foundation takes state and local taxes, including property taxes, from Census data and counts out-of-state tax payments in the state of residence instead of the state of collection and divides total tax payments by total income to calculate the "tax burden."
