It's possible that Buffalo voters will know who won the race for mayor by the time they go to bed on election night.
But the result of the hotly contested fight between Democratic nominee India B. Walton and four-term incumbent Mayor Byron W. Brown may be in doubt for weeks, Erie County's top election officials said Tuesday.
The uncertainty stems from the nature of the write-in candidacy of Brown, who lost the Democratic primary to Walton, as well as the fact that Erie County won't examine and award a single write-in vote until Nov. 16.
"This scale of write-in has never been done in New York State as far as I know," said Jeremy J. Zellner, the Democratic elections commissioner who also serves as chairman of the Erie County Democratic Party.
Zellner and Republican Elections Commissioner Ralph M. Mohr are preparing for a scenario where thousands of write-in ballots – with most likely to be cast for Brown – are counted by hand in the weeks after Election Day, with the outcome still in doubt.
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"It's possible," Mohr said. "We’ll have a clearer picture and we will know whether it’s probable or not, as opposed to definitively saying this person won or this person won.”
On election night, the results will fall into one of three categories: those who cast their vote for Walton, whose name is the only one on the ballot; those who cast write-in votes correctly; and those who cast write-in votes without filling in the bubble on the ballot.
That means that if Walton's votes outnumber the write-ins overwhelmingly – if, for instance, Walton receives 45,000 of 70,000 total votes – in Zellner's words, "it's over" and she will be Buffalo's 63rd mayor.
“If she obviously has more than those two totals ... then she’s the winner of the race, and we would be able to say unofficially that she’s leading," Mohr said.
The reverse would also be true.
If the number of write-in votes clearly outnumber Walton's tally – if, for example, she gets only 20,000 votes and there are 50,000 write-ins – "most likely we’ll know that the mayor is going to get re-elected," Zellner said. "If it’s a blowout one way or another, we should know who the mayor is on election night."
But there's a catch: anything resembling a close race will probably delay the outcome by weeks, they said.
There is the potential even if India Walton is leading by a slight margin on election night, that there still may be enough absentee ballots out there that have write-in votes for Brown that he can overtake that lead, Mohr said.
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The delay is due to the way Erie County elections officials count the votes. They wait until 10 business days after the election – until all absentee and military ballots have been returned – before counting any write-in votes.
“We do it all at once at that point," Mohr said. "Just for economy’s sake.”
That means that while the board will know how many write-ins were cast – and whether they were cast correctly – on election night, election officials will not even begin counting the actual write-in votes until Nov. 16.
“It’s basically going to be the same exact process as it always is," Zellner said. "We will be hand-counting the ballots for mayor, and we’ll be doing it in a bipartisan fashion. We don’t want to get started counting without everything in. It’s just not a good practice.”
Asked why the write-in count could not begin earlier, Mohr said, “Because we’re doing other stuff. We’re not sitting on our hands for two weeks. What we’re doing is we’re researching the provisional ballots. Why didn’t this person’s name appear in the book and why did they cast a vote? Do they live in Sardinia and are trying to vote in the City of Buffalo, or did they move? So that takes time. We’re making sure that people aren’t voting twice. Believe me, we’re very busy.”
Jesse Myerson, spokesperson for the Walton campaign, said Walton is "fully prepared to respect the rules as stated by the commissioners."
The Brown campaign did not respond to a message seeking comment.
The commissioners said they have met with both campaigns and their lawyers to go over schedules and set ground rules. They say that any ballot disputes may end up in court.
“This will all probably be litigated if it’s really close,” Zellner said.
How supporters of Brown or lesser-known candidates cast their write-in votes may add to the confusion. The Buffalo News asked the elections commissioners to answer likely questions about casting votes for either candidate.
Is it necessary to fill in the write-in bubble on the ballot for the vote to count?
Not necessary, but recommended. Elections officials are instructing voters to fill in the bubble, but a legible write-in without the bubble should still count.
Do you have to spell Byron Brown exactly right? What if voter just writes "Brown?" What if voter writes "Brian Brown?"
Elections officials say they try to discern the voter's "intent." The variations above would "probably" count, the commissioners said, though they caution that in a close election, anything in dispute is likely to be challenged by the opposing campaign.
What would disqualify a write-in vote?
Filling in the bubble for Walton on the Democratic line and also writing in her name will likely disqualify the vote, Mohr said. Writing in Brown's name in the wrong column would disqualify that vote, Zellner said.
Can a stamp be used to cast a write-in vote?
Stamps are OK, stickers are not.
