Poll: More than a third of voters undecided in race to be Tucson's next mayor

Among those who took the poll and live in the city, 36% said they have yet to decide who they will vote for in the Democratic primary race for mayor to replace Jonathan Rothschild, who is retiring.

The poll queried 1,693 people about their priorities ahead of the upcoming Democratic primary in the Tucson City Council race. Poll questions about the upcoming city election were limited to Tucson residents.

Among the three Democrats vying to be the next mayor, Steve Farley had the most support, with 31% saying they would vote for him. Tucson Councilwoman Regina Romero had 15% of the respondents’ support, and developer Randi Dorman had 6%.

A fourth candidate for mayor, Ed Ackerley, had 10% support in the new survey. However, Ackerley won’t be on the primary ballot because he is an independent candidate. The co-owner of Ackerley Advertising will face the winner of the Democratic primary in November.

Interest in the city races was high among Tucson poll respondents, with 97% indicating they planned to vote.

In the four-way Democratic race to replace Romero in Tucson’s Ward 1, nearly 44% of those polled said they were unsure who they will vote for in the primary. Of the respondents, 100 people said they lived within the ward, which generally covers Tucson’s south and west sides. Council members are elected by ward in the primary. The entire city, however, votes for council candidates in the general election.

Sami Hamed, who works for SAAVI Services for the Blind, led the field with support from 33% of those polled. Lane Santa Cruz, an adjunct professor at the UA, had 9% supporting her, and 5% said they back Rob Elias, who is the director of marketing for the Tucson Botanical Gardens. Consultant Miguel Ortega was favored by 3% of respondents.

Republican Sam Nagy, who launched a write-in campaign for the seat after failing to get on the ballot as a mayoral candidate, had 5% support in the poll.

In Ward 2, Democrat Paul Cunningham, who is seeking another term on the council, had 59% support over his Republican rival, Ewart Williams, an Uber driver, who was backed by 15% of those polled. Another 25% said they were undecided.

The race in Ward 4 to replace retiring Shirley Scott showed Democrat Nikki Lee, who works at Raytheon, leading her Republican rival, former TUSD school board member Michael Hicks. The poll found 58% support for Lee and 19% for Hicks. Another 22% said they were undecided.

Presidential election

Tucsonans are divided in the race for the White House, the poll shows.

Overall, 75% of respondents said they wanted to see Donald Trump out of office next year, answering either they were “ready for something new” or “Get Trump out of here!” Another 21% said they supported Trump, answering “Don’t change a thing! Trump 2020!” or “Some things could change, but I’m still for Trump.”

The survey respondents were comprised mainly of Democrat and Independent voters, with 49% and 24% respectively. Of the remaining sample, 22% identified as a Republican and the remaining 5% were a mix of Green, Independent, Libertarian and other political parties.

When self-identified Democrats were asked about a possible change in the White House, 89% said they wanted to see Trump be a one-term president, while 8% supported him.

For self-identified Republicans, 66% said they supported the re-election of Trump and 29% said they were ready to see a change in the Oval Office.

Among the current Democrats running for president, Elizabeth Warren was the most popular in the poll, with 33% indicating they support her. Kamala Harris had 24%, Bernie Sanders had 16% and Joe Biden had 13% support among those polled.

When looking at Democrat and Independent voters’ preference for a presidential candidate, Warren leads among both parties. However, Harris and Sanders were flipped in their ranking depending on the respondents’ party. Harris was second among Democrats with Sanders the second choice for Independent voters.

Health-care costs was listed as the top concern in the 2020 election, the poll found. Immigration was second among top concerns, followed by climate change, the environment and the economy.