Hurricane Polo won't touch down in Tucson, but the extra tropical moisture could give the final days of monsoon a boost.
In a 24-hour period, Polo underwent one of the fastest rates of intensification on record in the eastern Pacific Ocean, according to the National Hurricane Center. The storm quickly shifted from a tropical depression into a Category 5 hurricane with maximum winds near 180 mph.
Ashely Kelley was among the dozens gathered at the Gates Pass Scenic Overlook in Tucson on Tuesday to catch the autumnal equinox sunset. If the forecast holds, Tucson could end the year with above-normal monsoon rainfall thanks to a boost in moisture from Hurricane Polo.
Teetering between a Category 4 and Category 5 classification, Polo brought southwest coastal Mexico heavy rainfall and strong winds Thursday. Its track is expected to continue northwestward, moving away from southwestern Mexico’s coast, the National Weather Service forecasts.
On Sunday and into the early week, Polo is expected to shift northward towards northwest coastal Mexico, ultimately approaching the Baja California Peninsula as a hurricane, NWS forecasts show.
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Forecasters predict Polo will rapidly weaken as it crosses Baja California and moves into mainland Mexico.
Here's what Hurricane Polo looked like on Sept. 22. While Polo itself won't have much of an impact in Tucson, it could supply an already incoming weather system with some extra moisture and bring a rainy end to this year's monsoon.
Moisture from Polo is expected to be carried into the southwestern United States throughout the weekend and into early next week, possibly bringing about heavy rainfall and a flash flood threat.
While Polo itself won't have much of an impact in Tucson, it could supply an already incoming weather system with some extra moisture, Dalton Van Stratten, a meteorologist with NWS, said during a virtual conference Friday.
"We won't have direct impacts from Hurricane Polo, but the surge in moisture associated with that will send moisture north from Mexico and the Gulf of California," Van Stratten said.
The potential moisture is expected to come into play just as Tucson's monsoon season, which stretches from June 15 through Sept. 30, comes to a close.
Water is flowing after a monsoon storm rolled through Pima County.
For Sunday evening through Wednesday morning, forecasts predict widespread showers throughout the Tucson area, bringing an estimated 1 to 1.5 inches of rain.
"As that deeper moisture arrives, especially Monday into Tuesday, we'll see heavier rainfall rate associated with that deeper moisture," Van Stratten said. "We'll have a slight risk for flash flooding Monday and a marginal risk on Tuesday."
Forecasts also anticipate isolated thunderstorms with wind potentially exceeding 50 mph, Van Stratten warned.
If the forecast is true, it could push Tucson above the normal monsoonal rain.
As of Friday morning, Tucson had seen 5.38 inches of monsoonal rainfall as measured at Tucson International Airport, which is just below the normal total monsoon rainfall of 5.69 inches, NWS data shows.
This year's monsoon, however, is still well above the mere 2.82 inches of rain reported last year.
While it might not quite stack up to some of the previous years, the 2026 monsoon got off to a strong start. Its inaugural storm on June 15 brought 0.4 of an inch of rain, shattering the June 15 daily record and helping make the month the 11th wettest June on record, an NWS report shows.
The wet June was followed by a dry July, totaling 0.7 of an inch, coming in just below a third of the normal 2.21 inches. August saw an above-average 3.21 inches.
Overall, Tucson totaled 22 days of rainfall — the wettest day being Aug. 31 with 0.84 of an inch of rain.
The Tucson metro area also received 5,400 lightning strikes since June 15 as of Wednesday, which is noticeably higher than the 3,117 received during that same period last year but still below the average of 7,699.
Nogales, Safford, Sierra Vista, Willcox and Picacho Peak all received monsoonal rainfall close to or even above normal.
Photos: Monsoon 2026 in Tucson
A worker cuts branches from a toppled tree Friday morning at Armory Park. The downtown area was hit hard Thursday night by a powerful monsoon storm.
A crew spent Friday morning clearing branches from a tree at downtown's Armory Park felled by a strong storm Thursday night.
Crews clean up downed trees Friday at Armory Park the morning after a late-season monsoon storm rolled through Tucson. Strong winds blew over a tree near the recently completed dog park entrance that toppled new fencing and landed on several parked cars.
TEP crews fix snapped power lines following Thursday’s thunderstorm, North Oracle Road, Tucson, Ariz., Aug. 28, 2026.
Crews from parks and recreation clean up downed trees at Armory Park on August 28, 2026 after a late-season monsoon storm rolled through Thursday night in Tucson, Ariz. Strong winds blew over a tree at the dog park entrance that landed on several cars.
One of several downed trees at Armory Park on August 28, 2026 after a late-season monsoon storm rolled through Thursday night in Tucson, Ariz.
One of several downed trees at Armory Park on August 28, 2026 after a late-season monsoon storm rolled through Thursday night in Tucson, Ariz.
One of several downed trees at Armory Park on August 28, 2026 after a late-season monsoon storm rolled through Thursday night in Tucson, Ariz.
People wade through puddles at the intersection of N. Fourth Ave and Sixth Street after a late-season monsoon storm rolled through Pima County on August 27, 2026.
An outside tent at The Hut, 305 N 4th Ave, is blown down after a late-season monsoon storm rolled through Pima County on August 27, 2026.
A driver kicks up water at the intersection of N. Fourth Ave and Sixth Street after a late-season monsoon storm rolled through Pima County on August 27, 2026.
A woman runs through a puddle as a man walks into it at the intersection of N. Fourth Ave and Sixth Street after a late-season monsoon storm rolled through Pima County on August 27, 2026.
The Santa Cruz river flows after a late-season monsoon storm rolled through Pima County on August 27, 2026.
A small monsoon cell moves over the southern tips of the Rincon Mountains just east of Vail, AZ., one of several widely scattered small storms to roll around Tucson, Ariz., August 22, 2026.
A pedestrian wears a trash bag in preparation for heavy storm showers in Tucson, North Oracle Road, Ariz., Aug. 19, 2026.
A cyclist bikes through heavy storm showers, North Oracle Road, Tucson, Ariz., Aug. 19, 2026.
The sun sets behind the Tucson Mountains as monsoon clouds try to build in the evening skies over Tucson, Ariz., August 14, 2026. The monsoon only managed to produce a few, brief scattered drops over the area through the early evening.
A composite image from 17 separate 30-second exposures shows a fraction of the lighting strikes along the Santa Rita Mountains from a widespread monsoon cell south of Tucson, Ariz., August 5, 2026.
A big bolt of lighting hits in the Santa Rita foothills behind Hotrods Old Vail restaurant, one of hundreds of strikes from a widespread monsoon storm that rolled over Tucson, Ariz., August 5, 2026.
Lighting strikes in the Santa Rita foothills south of Hotrods Old Vail restaurant as a band of monsoon storms rolls into Tucson, Ariz., August 5, 2026. Heavy rain, high wind and hail also swept the area.
No storms nearby, but a bit of color in the skies southwest of Tucson, Ariz., during a quiet evening on the monsoon front, July 29, 2026.
Lighting strikes just after sundown as a monsoon storm in over Tucson, Ariz., July 25, 2026.
Lighting lights the clouds hovering over a peak in the southern spurs of the Rincon Mountains part of a monsoon storm running east of Tucson, Ariz., July 25, 2026.
Lighting hits in the eastern reaches of Santa Catalinas from a monsoon storm skirting the foothills neighborhoods north of Tucson, Ariz., July 25, 2026.
Lightning cuts through the sky from the monsoon activity in Cochise and Santa Cruz counties, southeast of Tucson, Ariz., July 24, 2026.
An aircraft flies towards several bolts of lightning striking down as a monsoon storms rolls through southeast of Tucson, Ariz., July 18, 2026. The storms skirted the city for the most part.
Vail, Ariz., gets a light show as a monsoon storm rolls over the southern edge of the town, just southeast of Tucson, Ariz., July 18, 2026.
A lightning bolt hits in Vail, Ariz., as the monsoon storm largely skirts to the southeast of Tucson, Ariz., July 18, 2026.
A fork of monsoon lightning finds the ground as the cell moves east passing just to the southeast of Tucson, Ariz., July 18, 2026.
A monsoon boils up west of Tucson, Ariz., dropping a little bit of rain on the extreme edge of the city, July 18, 2026.
Catlow Shipek uses a shop-vac to suck up water at the home of Julius Schlosburg after a monsoon storm in Tucson, Ariz. on July 17, 2026. An afternoon storm flooded Schlosburg’s street and home at S. Euclid Ave. and E. 34th street.
Lisa Shipek carries a box with a wet bottom out of the home of Julius Schlosburg as she helps him clean up after his street flooded after a monsoon storm in Tucson on July 17. An afternoon storm flooded Schlosburg’s street and home at South Euclid Avenue and East 34th Street.
Julius Schlosburg sweeps water out of his bedroom after a monsoon storm flooded his street and home near S. Euclid Ave. and E. 34th street in Tucson, Ariz. on July 17, 2026.
A cyclist rides by Tucson Fire Department personnel monitoring the Santa Cruz River at the Silverlake Road bridge following a report of at least one person swept down the Julian Wash following heavy rains in Tucson on July 17.
Tucson Fire Department personnel keep watch on the rain swollen Santa Cruz River at the Silverlake Road bridge, on the lookout for at least one person reported swept down the Julian Wash, Tucson, Ariz., July 17, 2026.
Two men try to rig a tow on a stalled car in a side wash at Acacia Club Lane and Country Club Road in the midst of afternoon monsoon storm dropping heavy rain, Tucson, Ariz., July 17, 2026.
A man runs for cover as heavy rain showers pour down on Southern Arizona, South Sixth Avenue, Tucson, Ariz., July 17, 2026.
A pedestrian braves the wet, colorful night, walking down Stone at Congress as a monsoon storm drops a steady rain over Tucson, Ariz., July 16, 2026.
The Lion of Judah mural by artist Joe Pagac reflects off a pool of rain water along West Ruthrauff Road, Tucson, Ariz., July 16, 2026.
A small rainbow peeks through a sea of storm clouds, West Ruthrauff Road, Tucson, Arizona, July 16, 2026.
Two women laugh as they walk through puddles of water along North Fourth Ave during a monsoon storm in Tucson, Ariz. on July 13, 2026.
A pedestrian lifts her head up towards the sky to feel the raindrops while waiting for the light to change at the intersection of North Fourth Ave and West Sixth Street during a monsoon storm in Tucson, Ariz. on July 13, 2026.
A pedestrian walks along North Fourth Ave during a monsoon storm in Tucson, Ariz. on July 13, 2026.
A jogger makes his way across the intersection of North Fourth Ave and Sixth Street during a monsoon storm in Tucson, Ariz. on July 13, 2026.
Monsoon lighting cuts the sky over Horse, a sculpture in the Cactus Courtyard on a stormy evening for Chillin’ at the Chul, Tucson, Ariz., July 11, 2026.
A bolt of lightning strikes just southwest of Vail, Ariz., part of a monsoon storm cell that moved mostly around the greater Tucson area, July 9, 2026.
A lighting bolt and a downburst of heavy rain hits in the eastern reaches of the Santa Catalinas Foothills, part of several monsoon cells that hit sporadically around the valley, Tucson, Ariz., June 25, 2026.
A pair enjoys a rainy afternoon stroll around Brandi Fenton Memorial Park, 3482 East River Road, Tucson, Ariz., July 12, 2026.
A cyclist rides his bike to shelter minutes before storm showers roll through Tohono Transit Center, Tucson Mall Drive, Tucson, Ariz., July 11, 2026.
A pair sprints to shelter as massive storm showers roll through Tohono Transit Center, Tucson Mall Drive, Tucson, Ariz., July 11, 2026.
Maximiliano Fimbres uses a chainsaw to cut through the trunk of a fallen tree at Michigan Street and S. Park Ave. in Tucson, Ariz. on June 18, 2026.
Power lines lay across S. Park Ave near Irvington Road in Tucson, Ariz. on June 18, 2026. A monsoon storm on Wednesday night brought heavy rains and wind to the south area of Tucson.
A worker looks back at the downed power lines laying across S. Park Ave near Irvington Road in Tucson, Ariz. on June 18, 2026. A monsoon storm on Wednesday night brought heavy rains and wind to the south area of Tucson.
Crews work on fixing multiple fallen power lines near East Ajo Way and Benson Highway after storm showers hit Tucson on Wednesday afternoon, June 18, 2026.
Multiple fallen power lines hang near East Ajo Way and Benson Highway after storm showers hit Tucson on Wednesday afternoon, June 18, 2026.
Crews work on fixing multiple fallen power lines near East Ajo Way and Benson Highway after storm showers hit Tucson on Wednesday afternoon, June 18, 2026.
Crews work on fixing multiple fallen power lines near East Ajo Way and Benson Highway after storm showers hit Tucson on Wednesday afternoon, June 18, 2026.
Crews work on fixing multiple fallen power lines near East Ajo Way and Benson Highway after storm showers hit Tucson on Wednesday afternoon, June 18, 2026.
A pedestrian dashes through the monsoon rain pelting down on the intersection of Sixth Avenue and Congress Street, Tucson, Ariz., June 17, 2026. A line of storms moved slowly over the valley dropping rain, at times heavy, some wind and a few lightning bolts.
Pedestrians team up to share rare umbrellas as heavy rain washes through downtown Tucson, Ariz., June 17, 2026.
A pedestrian rides his bike through rain showers, East University Boulevard, Tucson, Ariz., June 17, 2026.
A pedestrian uses two hands to control her umbrella during a monsoon storm whipping wind and rain through Sixth Avenue in downtown Tucson, Ariz., June 17, 2026.
A large rainbow forms after storm showers hit Tucson, North Oracle Road, Ariz., June 17, 2026.
A pedestrian takes shelter in a building’s overhang, hiding from the rain while waiting for the crossing light to change at Scott Avenue and Congress Street, Tucson, Ariz., June 17, 2026.
A pair of pedestrians brave the heavy rain, strolling along Scott Avenue under the mural on the wall of Cobra Arcade Tucson, Ariz., June 17, 2026.
Heavy monsoon rain pounds down on the foot and vehicle traffic at Scott Avenue and Congress Street, Tucson, Ariz., June 17, 2026.
A woman walks along N. Stone Ave as her reflection is seen in a puddle of water after an early morning monsoon storm in Tucson, Ariz. on June 15, 2026.
