A majority of the nation's children will be minorities before the decade is out, crossing a demographic milestone more quickly than previously predicted, according to a new analysis of census statistics by a demographer with the Brookings Institution.
Demographer William Frey said unexpectedly rapid growth among Hispanics and Asians is creating a demographic age gap that already is visible in classrooms and playgrounds. The Census Bureau has estimated that most children would be minorities by 2023, but Frey said that landmark will be reached years earlier.
Frey said it also is likely that the nation's population overall will become predominantly minority before the census estimate of 2042.
What Frey calls the "new minorities" - primarily Hispanics and Asians - are responsible for all the growth among children between 2000 and 2010. During a decade when white children declined by 4.3 million and black children experienced a slight decline, Hispanic and Asian children increased by 5.5 million.
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As evidence of the wide and growing age gap, the nation's whites have a median age of 41. That compares to age 35 for Asians, 27 for Hispanics and 20 for people who identified themselves on the census as being of more than one race.
Describing the numbers as "demographically urgent," Frey said the data underscores the need to do a better job educating minorities, who are going to be a significant part of the country's labor force down the road.
"For the first time, people are opening their eyes to the situation," said Frey. "We have to realize we have an aging white population. Our youth is the future of the country, and a diverse youth is the future of the country."
The census statistics Frey analyzed were collected in the 2010 Census and released state by state in February and March. White children are now a minority among all children in 10 states and 35 metro areas, including Phoenix, New York and Atlanta.
Latinos already are the largest minority among schoolchildren nationwide. One in five students over all is Latino; among kindergarteners it's one in four. They lag behind other children in achievement, with half never finishing high school.
More needs to be done at an earlier age to help them bridge the gap, said Thelma Melndez de Santa Ana, assistant secretary for elementary and secondary education at the Education Department.
