Floridians clearly like rolling the dice.
They live on a peninsula that sticks out directly into the path of hurricanes, but they keep building on the coasts like crazy. Florida is the lightning capital of the U.S., yet the state also has more golf courses than pretty much anywhere. Floridians drive on Interstate 95, for heaven’s sake.
So it can’t be any surprise that Florida residents continue to brush off the idea that sea rise and flooding might actually affect them — and the housing market — sometime soon. You want real risk, people say? Try crossing the street in Miami.
But refusing to face the growing climate threat isn’t the smartest strategy. A new study published recently in the journal Nature Communications drives that home. It suggests Florida may see a reshaping of the state’s population based on which spots will require a retreat from rising waters and which spots — the ones on high ground — will be able to handle more people and housing.
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And some of those effects, according to the Miami Herald story on the topic, could start happening soon: Frequently flooded locations could see resident flight as early as 2028 in Miami-Dade County. In Broward, it could start happening in 2032.
That’s not decades away. It’s pretty much tomorrow.
The bazillion-dollar question is what will happen to Florida’s real estate market. In Miami, growth — particularly real estate growth — is a basic underpinning of economic expectations. But under this re-shaping, the places where growth could occur might see a large shift. Would coastal and waterfront properties stop being so desirable? Being able to predict where property values might drop, or even just stop rising, is key in a place where so much of the economy relies on the real estate boom.
One somewhat reassuring note: Both Miami-Dade and Broward are predicted to continuing growing overall through this century, according to the study, which is based on current flooding models projections. That’s great — as long as you’re not the one left holding the property that drops in value when you’ve been banking on it going up.
This is only one study. Plus, it doesn’t factor in whether anything significant is done to slow climate change or sea rise. Local governments in South Florida have been elevating roads, installing pumps and requiring new construction to be elevated.
How much risk or change homeowners are willing to take on is another unknown. Some people may be OK with flooded driveways or roads periodically as long they get to stay in the beachfront home of their dreams. It’s not just governments that will have to adapt. It’ll also be individuals. ...
Out of all of this, a complicated picture emerges. Florida is adapting to the risks it's facing — so far. But if property values in certain places actually start heading south, will that change?
It’s a conversation we need in Miami-Dade, in Florida and in the country.
