Analysis: The politics of endorsements

When India Walton stunned the political world by drubbing four-term incumbent Byron Brown back in June, it took only a few hours for reality to set in. One by one, the major figures of the Erie County Democratic Party began weighing in.

“India Walton won the primary,” they said. “She is the nominee of the Democratic Party. I support her.”

They included State Sen. Sean Ryan, Chairman Jeremy Zellner, Erie County Legislature Chairwoman April Baskin and Assemblyman Jon Rivera, among others. Some like Zellner, had to pirouette after initially (and without a whole lot of enthusiasm) supporting the mayor.

Only a handful of elected officials – Comptroller Barbara Miller-Williams and Council Members Chris Scanlon, Joe Golombek and Ulysses Wingo – stood with Brown a few days after the primary to support his unprecedented write-in candidacy.

Suddenly, the mayor of New York’s second largest city became a lonely figure. This is the same mayor who served as former Gov. Andrew Cuomo’s powerful state Democratic chairman. But, oh yeah – Cuomo is gone, too.

Now Walton is buoyed by support from big local names who a few months ago would not recognize her on the street. And New York City types, some with statewide ambitions, give her enhanced credibility. That’s why their fundraisers held throughout the Big Town last week are deemed so important. Walton supporters like Public Advocate Jumaane Williams and State Sen. Mike Gianaris, who attended and even co-sponsored the events, loom as major figures in the state Democratic Party.

Then there are those who have taken no position. They include Assembly Majority Leader Crystal Peoples-Stokes, a longtime Brown ally; Gov. Kathy Hochul, another longtime Buffalo comrade; or state Chairman Jay Jacobs.

Indeed, the New York Times reported last week that Williams, who has formed a committee to explore a gubernatorial candidacy, has criticized Hochul for not vocally supporting Walton.

This all becomes relevant because when all the cast votes and write-in ballots are tallied, someone will be left on the outside looking in. Nobody predicts a landslide election either way (though anything can happen), so those choosing sides are taking a risk. Will Brown rebound, win the fifth term achieved by no mayor in Buffalo history and reign supreme? What happens then to the former friends who deserted him and flocked to Walton?

Or will Walton establish a new order in Buffalo, cementing her democratic socialism as the future and serving notice that her way is now a winning way? A few Dems will have to get with the program.

It will be interesting in coming days to see if both campaigns roll out more endorsements. Brown camp sources hint they are coming. And some so far silent Council members seem ripe for Walton’s picking.

Do endorsements mean anything? Most campaign veterans say that’s dubious, even as every candidate seeks a big name to stand alongside them for cameras. But in this unique election, the blessing of the political world’s known commodities may actually prove key.

In any event – they are going to happen.

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• Brown’s failure to gain a late entry, minor party line (nixed by appellate courts) may prove a blessing in disguise. Even as his campaign flooded the city with “Write Down Byron Brown” signs, supporters of the mayor might still have been confused. That’s because write-in votes for anyone already appearing on a ballot line are not counted. It might have all resulted in major ballot confusion.

At least the Brown campaign won’t have to retrieve thousands of “Write Down Byron Brown” signs.

• Watch for the Brown campaign to soon launch a major and inevitable education component, instructing voters in exact write-in procedures. Write-in voting may seem simple, but it remains the mayor’s biggest challenge.

And that’s why candidates strive to win primaries and appear on the general election ballot.