It’s Judgment Day in a lot of ways for the 2021 Buffalo Bills on Sunday against the New England Patriots.
Actually, let’s call it Judgment Day, Part 1, since the final judgment on the Bills will be made based on what they do in January.
• Can Sean McDermott avoid being outcoached by Bill Belichick?
• Did Brandon Beane build a team geared toward beating the Kansas City Chiefs and fail to keep a keener eye on beating the Patriots?
• Can Brian Daboll find the right adjustments against the defensive wizardry of his chief pro football mentor?
• Do the Bills’ older veteran leaders – we’re thinking Jerry Hughes, Mario Addison and Star Lotulelei, to name three – have enough juice left to help get the Bills over the AFC East hump?
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All those answers will be revealed when the Bills and Patriots play for what should be the AFC East title. The Bills close with what should be victories over Atlanta and the New York Jets. The Patriots close with games at home against Jacksonville and at Miami. The finale versus the Dolphins is no gimmie, since Miami beat New England in the season opener. But who among us thinks Belichick is going to lose twice to Tua Tagovailoa?
McDermott was doing his best Wednesday to keep his players focused on the daily task at hand.
“I think we just need to focus on what we can and that's going out to practice in a few minutes and continuing to improve our football team,” he said.
Yet, the reality for McDermott is the Patriots are the measuring stick for any AFC East coach. And the 69-year-old Belichick has schooled everyone on the opposing sideline in his career, from Sean McVay, Pete Carroll and Andy Reid to Bill Cowher, Curly Lambeau and Amos Alonzo Stagg. Or so it seems.
For decades, Bills coaches have been able to lean on the crutch: Belichick has Tom Brady. No longer. McDermott has the better quarterback in this game, and it’s not a close call. Josh Allen’s team should beat Mac Jones’ team – all other things being remotely close.
Are they remotely close? They should be. The Bills’ defense is No. 3 in points allowed and No. 1 in yards allowed. The Pats are No. 1 in points allowed and No. 2 in yards allowed. They’ve played almost identical schedules. You know that if Belichick were on the Bills’ sideline facing Jones, the rookie would be befuddled into several mistakes. It’s on McDermott and defensive coordinator Leslie Frazier to cause some problems for the Pats’ new QB.
It’s also on McDermott to manage the game flawlessly, because Belichick is brilliant at game management. McDermott has done well in five years at managing games, better than any other Bills coach the past two decades. But in the loss to the Pats three weeks ago, McDermott wasted a time out when he challenged a fourth-down QB sneak by Jones. McDermott burned a second time out before a second-and-goal play from the 6 midway through the fourth quarter. Then Josh Allen was sacked. The Bills needed those timeouts later in the game.
Are the Bills stout enough on both lines of scrimmage? With Allen and the skill-position talent on board, the Bills don’t need to be the most physical team in the league. But they can’t get steamrolled.
It’s on Daboll to make sure Allen reads the Pats’ amoeba-like secondary. And Allen needs a little help from the run game.
Should Beane have found a bigger running back somewhere along the way to provide more of a complement to Devin Singletary? Should Beane have come up with another stouter option at guard to contend with the Pats’ run-stuffing front seven?
The Patriots’ defense arguably is a little better than that of the Bills right now, given the fact Tre’Davious White is out for the season. The Pats are deeper in the secondary and on the defensive line. The Bills have the better offense.
Belichick was asked this week to pick his best-ever defensive game plan. He wasn’t biting.
“You can X-and-O it all you want, but in the end, players win games,” Belichick said. “Players make plays to win games. Without good players and without good players making good plays, there are not a lot of games to be won. Whatever strategy, game plans, or plays that we use, whatever they were in any game, ultimately, comes down to the players, their execution, decision making and fundamentals on those plays. That's really where the credit in those games goes and should go because they're the ones that are doing it. I've been very, very fortunate through my career to coach a lot of good players, some great players, some of the greatest players in the history of the game, a lot of very, very good players, good role players and players that complemented each other. ... That's my view of the world on that. Thank you for asking.”
Coaching is huge, but Belichick is right. The players have to execute.
Hughes, Addison and Lotulelei have three of the top six salary cap figures on the team this year. The Bills need a good finish to the season from all three.
The final judgment on the 2021 season is counting on it.
