Mike Harrington: Sabres have a mess in goal and need to find out more about Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen

1). It's far too early to give up on Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen but the question marks are rapidly growing.

2). Devon Levi better be really good. And better become NHL-ready super fast.

(And yes, that encompasses the widely held theory that Levi will sign with the Sabres after his college season at Northeastern is complete)

Eric Comrie is hurt and likely to be out a few more weeks. Craig Anderson is 41 and that limits the amount of time he can play. Specifically, the Sabres don't use him on a back-to-back day with no morning skate and really don't think he'll be effective and stay healthy for more than a game, or maybe two a week.

So probably for a good chunk of December, the Sabres are going to find out if Luukkonen is fit for the NHL.

Frankly, it's probably a good thing. Luukkonen is 23 years old and was drafted in 2017. We all know goalies can take a while to develop but at some point the Sabres have to make a call on the big Finn and he has to show the waiting will be worth it.

Luukkonen has played four games in this NHL stint. One was a 34-save performance in a 6-2 win over St. Louis that had KeyBank Center fans giving him the "Luuuuuuuke" calls. The other three have been against prime competition – at Toronto and this week's home games against Stanley Cup finalists Tampa Bay and Colorado.

Luukkonen has been in over his head.

You can blame the Sabres' poor defensive structure and abhorrent penalty problems, and you'd be partially right. But at some point, the goalie is there to make saves and often has to do it to bail out his team. It hasn't been happening for Luukkonen.

The NHL's 32 teams have combined to use 75 goalies thus far this season. Luukkonen entered Friday No. 75 in save percentage (.846) and No. 74 in goals-against average (4.47).

Yikes. 

Make. A. Save. Or a bunch of them.

A deeper look at the numbers isn't good either. According to NaturalStatTrick.com, Luukkonen's 17 goals against are more than 3½ over his expected goals figure of 13.29. Comrie's 38 goals against are well over his expected figure of 30.79. Only 41-year-old Anderson is beating expectations, allowing 27 goals when the metrics say he should be at 29.5.

Luukkonen has an atrocious .659 save percentage on high danger chances, well below Comrie (.798) and Anderson (.857). His overall save percentage in the games against Tampa Bay and Colorado was just .810. Has to be better.

"He's in a development phase in his career," coach Don Granato said after Thursday's 6-4 loss to the Avalanche. "And I think he's taking in these opportunities to grow. His confidence looks good. He's fighting the battle and scrapping and working to improve every day."

I don't buy Luukkonen's confidence looking good at all and Granato shouldn't be selling it. The kid has played one real good period, the final 20 minutes Thursday against Colorado. Other than that? Nope.

Luukkonen never looked in control of the game against Tampa Bay, even with the Sabres holding a two-goal lead and less than six minutes to play. It was hard to specifically indict him on too many goals until Steven Stamkos' overtime winner, an unscreened wrist shot from the right circle to the top corner that saw Luukkonen off his angle just enough to give the shooter an opening.

Dave Mishkin calls Stamkos' game winning goal in overtime #GoBolts #TBLvsBUF pic.twitter.com/UR4eM0zoDy

— Bucs Rays Bolts (@BucsRaysBoltsYT) November 29, 2022

Against Colorado, J.T. Compher's second goal of the game gave the Avs a 5-3 lead with 2:44 left in the second period and was the biggest blot on Luukkonen's night. He showed poor rebound control, kicking a Logan O'Connor shot directly into the slot, and couldn't get a glove on a shot by Compher after the Avs forward beat JJ Peterka to the puck.

But after giving up five goals on 22 shots in the first two periods, Luukkonen had a good third period. Alex Tuch scored at seven seconds to get Buffalo within a goal and Luukkonen kept the Sabres there with 12 saves, including a terrific stop on Avs star Nathan MacKinnon in alone.

"I think everybody feels confident with him and that he's a really good goalie, really good guy," said Sabres defenseman Mattias Samuelsson. "He doesn't deserve to see the six (goals) up there. "We've got to clean up the other areas and not give them the freebies. For him to let those in in the second there and for us to give up that offense and then for him to come on the third and make some huge saves keeps us in it. It shows maturity."

Love this Compher goal even more with Cogliano setting it up! #ProBlue https://t.co/EZweK3Buw1

— Michigan Hockey (@umichhockey) December 2, 2022

Now we see if Luukkonen can take some steps against some reasonable opponents.

The Sabres were off Friday and return to action at home Sunday against San Jose, which is 27th overall and will be in the finale of a four-game road trip. Buffalo is at Columbus on Wednesday to meet a team with an Eastern Conference-low seven wins.

Then comes a home-and-home on Friday and Saturday with Pittsburgh, a team the Sabres have gone 3-0-1 against in their last four meetings and will likely be without star defenseman Kris Letang after he suffered a stroke on Monday. That's followed by a Dec. 13 home game against Los Angeles, a team the Sabres have beaten in 10 of its last 12 trips to Buffalo.

There's got to be some wins there. But only if there's enough saves. Granato will be looking for Luukkonen to harness some of the play he saw in the third period against Colorado.

"He was really good, which was nice to see," Granato said. "Because I'm sure he wished he had an opportunity to have one or two of those in the second. ... To bounce back and keep that game tight was a real good sign. He looked confident and that was a moment where it could have challenged confidence."

Here's hoping Luukkonen starts to find his game. Unless Levi follows the rapid college-to-NHL path Jeremy Swayman took from Maine to the Boston Bruins, the Sabres are still going to be waiting to find their man in net. At worst, Luukkonen was supposed to be a key guy next season. He's got a chance to make a dent on his career path right now. He has to start taking advantage of opportunity.