It's officially starting to feel like fall. The heat of the summer had died down. The calendar has flipped to October. Pumpkin is in the air. And college football conference play is in full swing.
That means increased stakes as teams jockey for positions in the College Football Playoff race against the opponents that know them best. The familiarity often breeds upsets. The question is where those upsets will come from.
Week 5 offers a unique opportunity. Seven of the nine teams in the top 10 that will play this weekend will be on the road in conference play. Three face ranked opponents. Could we see Ohio State fall at Iowa? What about Florida heading to Missouri or Alabama visiting Mississippi State?
The USA TODAY Sports college football staff is here to answer those questions with their bold predictions in Week 5.
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WEEK 5 BOLD PREDICTIONS
Michigan faces major struggle at Minnesota
P.J. Fleck doesn’t have a Minnesota team capable of challenging for the Big Ten title or a College Football Playoff berth, but the Golden Gophers will prove problematic for a Michigan team that tumbles out of the national rankings with this loss. The Wolverines will continue to face offensive questions; they've scored a meager 36 total points against two Power Four foes and had just seven before their controversial walk-off Hail Mary against Western Michigan.
-- John Brice
Tennessee quarterback Faizon Brandon runs against Texas during the second half at Neyland Stadium on Sept. 26 in Knoxville, Tenn.
Auburn deals more pain to Tennessee
A bounce back game for Tennessee. A chance to get right in the SEC after giving away chances last week to beat the No. 1 team in the nation. A loud crowd, a statement game for the new quarterback and a coach who needs a big win. And I'm going against all of it. Auburn's win over Vanderbilt was not only impressive, it underscored new coach Alex Golesh's ability to get his team to bounce back after an ugly loss. Auburn has figured out the value of QB Byrum Brown running early — instead of forcing the pass game — and dictating tempo.
-- Matt Hayes
Northwestern opens up new stadium with a bang
It's a monumental occasion for Northwestern opening the new Ryan Field, and it welcomes a quality opponent in Penn State. The Nittany Lions are coming off a loss when the offense really fell flat in the second half against Wisconsin, and it won't get easier going against a Northwestern defense that handled Indiana fairly well. It's not going to be a pretty game, but the Wildcats will make the necessary plays while the defense creates problems for Rocco Becht. Northwestern gets past Penn State and starts its new era of football 1-0.
-- Jordan Mendoza
Could Ohio State fall at Iowa?
Iowa scores a non-offensive touchdown, slows down Jeremiah Smith and scores a huge upset of Ohio State that throws the entire Big Ten in chaos. Also, another loss would spell borderline doom for the Buckeyes after last month's loss at Texas. The Hawkeyes will need an error-free game from Hank Brown and an epic defensive performance, but both are possible.
-- Paul Myerberg
Florida running back Jadan Baugh gestures after scoring a touchdown against Ole Miss during the second half at Ben Hill Griffin Stadium on Sept. 26 in Gainesville, Fla.
Florida falters in show-me trip to Missouri
In this space last week, we talked about the challenge for Mississippi to go on the road after an emotional win. Florida took advantage of the Rebels having a hangover from beating LSU. Now it's the Gators taking a trip to Missouri after their big victory that vaulted them into the top 10. Can they stay grounded While the Tigers aren't an amazing team, they will give their best effort at home in a game to stay in the SEC race. Look for the home team to pull off a surprise and dampen the enthusiasm around Jon Sumrall's fast start. -- Erick Smith
Little Brown Jug stays in Minnesota
One of the unfortunate side effects of conference expansion has been the reduced frequency of traditional rivalry games. Then again, maybe Minnesota fans aren’t terribly disappointed by having missed Michigan for the last couple of years. The Golden Gophers haven’t beaten the Wolverines in the Twin Cities since 1977 and haven’t toppled Michigan at all since 2014. But that is about to change. The Wolverines have failed to score 20 points three times already, while the Gophers are feeling good after winning their Big Ten opener on the road at Washington. This time, the Little Brown Jug will stay in Minnesota.
-- Eddie Timanus
Alabama silences Mississippi State cowbells
Mississippi State broke the record for simultaneous cowbells clanging last week against Missouri. You didn’t know there was a record for such a thing? Well, then you don’t appreciate cowbells enough! If MSU could get an official record-certifying crew back in town for its game against Alabama, it’d probably break the record again. But, prepare to say goodbye to the Bulldogs’ undefeated record. MSU and its star quarterback Kamario Taylor became one of the top stories of September. They deserve the kudos. Now, prepare some kudos for Keelon Russell. Alabama’s quarterback has been fantastic as a first-year starter, and by the fourth quarter, the cowbells will go quiet as Alabama pulls away, and the SEC’s wheat begins to separate from the chaff. More cowbell in the first half, but Cinderella goes splat in the second half.
-- Blake Toppmeyer
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