Politics likely to shrink proposal to bring hundreds of millions in federal aid to WNY

But those federal aid figures might not last very long.

Released Wednesday as part of the House effort to fill in the many blanks in Biden's plan, the proposal that would bring Buffalo $324 million and Erie County $180 million is still just that: a proposal. Sources on both sides of Capitol Hill said those state and local aid numbers are likely to shrink once the stimulus plan makes its way to the closely divided U.S. Senate.

The bottom line? Buffalo, other municipalities and the state are likely to get generous assists from Washington when the Democratic Congress finishes work on the stimulus effort in the next few weeks, but it is too soon to know exactly how generous.

Even Rep. Brian Higgins, the Buffalo Democrat who announced the federal aid figures Wednesday, said so. Asked if he expected the $350 billion state and local aid package to shrink amid the legislative process, he said: "I do." 

But Higgins added: "There's a lot more leverage today for what it is we want than there was two months ago."

Here's a closer look at that leverage, along with what it's likely to mean to localities and the state:

The politics

There's one big reason why the aid package is starting at a whopping $350 billion: New York's senior senator, Charles E. Schumer, wanted it – and because Democrats won two Georgia runoff elections last month, Schumer is now the Senate majority leader. President Biden initially wanted only $160 billion in state and local aid, but Schumer, noting the fiscal situation in his home state, insisted on more, and Biden agreed.

But that doesn't mean that all 50 senators who caucus with the Democrats will agree. In fact, the most conservative Democratic senator – Joe Manchin of West Virginia – this week told the Fox Business Network that the $350 billion state and local aid figure was "extremely high."

With the Senate evenly split between the two parties and Vice President Kamala Harris casting the deciding vote on partisan issues, Schumer can't afford to lose Manchin's vote, or that of any other Democratic senator, lest he risk sinking Biden's entire $1.9 trillion Covid-19 relief package. That being the case, if Manchin or any other Democratic senator insists that some of that $350 billion ought to be spent in some other way, that figure is likely to shrink.

The bottom line? Expect a final stimulus bill with somewhere between $160 billion and $350 billion in aid for states and localities. That means Buffalo won't get $324 million to fill a $65 million budget hole, and Erie County won't get $180 million. But both the city and the county and all other local municipalities will get far more federal aid than they ever could have expected if Democrats had not taken control of the Senate.

And while local Republican members of Congress say Biden's $1.9 trillion package is loaded with provisions they can't accept – such as a $15 minimum wage – both Rep. Chris Jacobs of Orchard Park and Rep. Tom Reed of Corning lauded the emerging state and local aid provisions.

“I am supportive of providing targeted aid to struggling local governments, and pleased that it is being considered in this package," Jacobs said.

"I'm comfortable with the numbers that they're going to be hashing out and debating," Reed said.

The local aid

Not surprisingly, the proposed $350 billion aid package won widespread praise from local officials in Western New York.

"This would make a huge difference," said Buffalo Mayor Byron W. Brown. "I've maintained all along since the beginning of the pandemic that federal disaster relief would be needed for cities, counties, school districts and states to be able to recover from the effects of the pandemic."

The aid package would allow Buffalo to do that, and then some. The city budgeted $65 million for federal aid in its current budget, and Brown said that if it receives far more money than that, Buffalo could pay off $25 million in debt and patch what it expects to be another pandemic-inspired hole in its budget for the next fiscal year.

Meanwhile, if Erie County gets anywhere near the $180 million it would get under the House proposal, it would be able to restore the more than 200 jobs it cut to balance its budget amid the pandemic, said Erie County Executive Mark C. Poloncarz.

What's more, "this will give us the additional assistance we need to continue our direct Covid-19 response," including the county's testing and vaccination efforts, Poloncarz said.

Niagara County would get $41 million under the aid proposal. Besides Buffalo, the City of Niagara Falls would get the most among local cities and towns: $55 million. But the region's towns and villages would benefit broadly, too, with the Town of Tonawanda set to get $39 million. Cheektowaga would get an estimated $24 million and Amherst would get $14 million.

In total, local and county governments in the Buffalo metro area would get $792 million under the proposal. Counties and towns throughout the eight-county Western New York region would get millions in aid in total, as well.

The state aid

The aid to New York State included in the aid proposal – $12.67 billion – prompted just what every other discussion of federal aid to the state has produced since the pandemic began: a debate.

Cuomo insisted it is not enough.

“The state needs $15 billion, and that’s the actual need and that’s what we should get. And if we don’t get $15 billion, I will be disappointed and I don’t think it’s fair," he told reporters in Albany.

But aides to Schumer pointed out that even if the $12.67 billion in direct aid to New York shrinks, the current version of the bill will likely steer plenty of money to the state in other forms. In addition to that direct aid, the state would receive $11.2 billion in aid for schools and higher education, $8 billion in transportation aid and $1.8 billion for child care – bringing the state's total largess to $33.6 billion.

And the state could get even more as Congress draws up the stimulus bill's provisions on Medicaid, the state-federal health care program for lower-income individuals.

Given all the money that's likely to come to Albany in various forms, E.J. McMahon, founder and senior fellow at the right-leaning Empire Center think tank, said: "This is the stimulus proposal of Andrew Cuomo's dreams."

McMahon argues that Cuomo "wildly exaggerates" the state's fiscal problems by claiming it needs to fill a $15 billion hole. Instead, thanks to previous federal aid and higher-than-expected tax collections, McMahon projects that the state can balance its budget in its current fiscal year.

However, McMahon noted that in the fiscal year beginning April 1, the state faces a $12.6 billion budget gap.

And that, perhaps coincidentally or perhaps not, is almost exactly how much federal aid the state would get under the House proposal announced Wednesday.