One year. Four elections. Two separate congressional districts.
That's the daunting road facing candidates who jump into the fray to replace Democratic U.S. Rep. Gabrielle Giffords, who will resign this week.
The candidates will likely compete in a special election primary in April and general in June, then the regular Aug. 28 primary and general on Nov. 6.
The first two races will be in the current congressional district, District 8, which begins in Marana and SaddleBrooke in the north, cuts through the east half of Tucson, takes in much of Santa Cruz County and all of Cochise County to the border with Mexico and New Mexico.
But the battlefield will change for what will become Congressional District 2 in the fall. Marana, Oro Valley and SaddleBrooke will be out. All of Santa Cruz County will be gone as well. Instead, the district will take in more of central Tucson and voters who are now in U.S. Rep Raúl Grijalva's district.
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As a result, the electorate will shift from one that leans Republican in registration, to a district that is evenly split. The number of registered Republicans will drop from 37 percent in the current district to 34.7 percent in the new district.
The number of registered Democrats will jump to 34.1 from 31.9 percent, while the number of voters registered as neither Democrats or Republicans - mainly independents - will stay steady at just over 31 percent.
There are 40,000 fewer registered voters in the new district.
The racial makeup will shift as well. In the new district, CD-2, the Hispanic voting age population will increase to nearly 22 percent, compared with 15 percent in the current district. Anglos will drop from nearly 78 percent to just over 69 percent.
The biggest difference is the subtraction of Oro Valley, Marana and SaddleBrooke, said Pima County Democratic Party Chairman Jeff Rogers. "That is a Republican bastion," he said. "It makes the district a lot more winnable for Democrats."
But holding the special election in the current district, CD-8, gives the advantage to Republicans, Rogers said. That's because the current district has more registered Republicans and because a special election will have a much lower turnout, which will favor Republicans, who are more likely to vote, Rogers said.
The advantage for Republicans is such that Rogers was openly hoping Giffords would throw her support behind one of her staff members, who would commit to serving out her term and not run in the fall. Rogers was already preparing his regular election attack lines if the Republicans win the special election.
"We wish we were in a stronger position in relation to the district," Rogers said. "But we've won it before."
resources needed, and quick
To run in four elections in one year, candidates need one thing, said Republican pollster Margaret Kenski: money.
Kenski said it will take a couple million dollars to run and succeed in both races.
"It's effectively an open seat," Kenski said. "The first thing they will have to do is get themselves known. ... It's going to take a lot of work."
Time is short as well. Candidates only have 30 days to collect the 700 to 900 valid signatures needed to get on the spring primary ballot, Rogers said.
"You need a whole lot of money, a really good organization and someone who can ramp it up fast," Rogers said.
The candidates have only a couple of weeks to get their entire organization up and running, Kenski said.
One thing that will help save resources is that 90 percent of the precincts are in both districts, Kenski said.
Shane Wikfors, spokesman for the Arizona Republican Party, said he expects the candidates to focus their resources on the overlap between the two districts, adding that at least the new district in the fall is more compact geographically than the current one.
One person who does have money and organization is Giffords. She is sitting on $879,000, according to her latest campaign finance statement from Sept. 30, the latest available, and has continued to take in more - money she can use to promote another candidate.
Rogers said he expects an announcement in the next 72 hours of a major candidate who will help to clear the Democratic field.
A potential rematch?
Because there are two general elections in such a short period, voters could either be looking at a rematch from the summer or a completely new matchup in the fall.
Whoever wins in the summer will run again, Wikfors said, but "you many find yourself against a different opponent. It adds a strange permutation to the whole situation," he said.
If the summer race is close, it will lead to the loser analyzing the data to see if he or she has a better chance in the new district, Wikfors said. "If it's a close election, they could decide to run again after crunching the numbers."
Adding to the intrigue is that the electorates of the general elections will be much different, Rogers and Kenski said. The first will be a special election in the summer with low turnout, while the second will be during the 2012 presidential election and with potential record turnout, they said.
Kenski said if it's close in the special election, the loser could try to fix his or her mistakes and hope the different district boundaries and electorate will change the outcome. But a runaway victory could force the loser out, Rogers said.
"If you get slaughtered, you're probably out of the game," he said.
Four races, two districts
Candidates seeking to replace U.S. Rep Gabrielle Giffords will face four elections in a year - two primaries and two general elections - and they will occur in two different congressional districts. The April primary election and the June special election will occur in the current congressional district, outlined in red on the map. The August primary and November general election will occur in the new district, shaded in blue on the map. The new district does not include Marana, Oro Valley and SaddleBrooke and instead takes in more of central Tucson. This cuts the Republican registration advantage in the district, bringing Democrats almost even. It also changes the racial makeup.
Racial makeup in two districts
CD-8, CD-2
Hispanic 15.30% 21.70%
Non-Hispanic White 77.56% 69.20%
Non-Hispanic Black 2.88% 3.50%
American Indian 1.14% 0.90%
Asian 2.38% 2.80%
Hawaiian 0.15% 0.20%
Other and multirace 0.59% 1.70%
Note: CD-8 numbers are from 2001; CD-2 numbers are from 2011
Source: Independent redistricting commission
Howard Fischer of Capitol Media Services contributed to this story. Contact reporter Rob O'Dell at rodell@azstarnet.com or 573-4346.
